Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Betting Pick & Prediction 11/17/24

The Chiefs and Bills will face off on Sunday, November 17th at 4:25 ET on CBS. The Bills are the favorite in this one, with a money line of -137 and a point spread of -2.5. The over/under line is set at 45.5 points. This week 11 matchup is being played at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS BUFFALO BILLS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5

This game will be played at Highmark Stadium at 4:25 ET on Sunday, November 17th.

WHY BET THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS:

• We have the Chiefs winning this one by a score of 23 to 19
• Not only do we have the Chiefs winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +2.5
• We see this game finishing below the line of 45.5 points

Will The Chiefs Pick Up A Win On The Road?

With a 9-0 record, the Chiefs sit atop the AFC West and our projections give them a 97.1% chance of winning the division and a 100% chance of making the playoffs. Kansas City ranks 4th in our NFL power rankings heading into week 11, when they’ll be on the road against the Bills. The Chiefs are 4-0 on the road this season, including a 10-point win over the 49ers in week 7. They followed that up with home wins over the Raiders, Bucs, and Broncos, though they failed to cover the spread in all three games.

KC has an average scoring margin of +6.4 points per game and is 4-4-1 against the spread. They have an O/U record of 4-5, with their games averaging 42.2 points compared to an average line of 44.8. In week 10, the Chiefs and Broncos combined for 30 points, falling short of the 42.5-point line.

Patrick Mahomes threw for 266 yards on 28 of 42 passing in week 10, with one touchdown and no interceptions, posting a passer rating of 91. He was sacked four times against the Broncos, matching his sack total from week 9. Kareem Hunt led the team in receiving with 65 yards on 7 catches and also rushed for 35 yards on 14 carries. Travis Kelce had topped the receiving charts in weeks 8 and 9, with 100 yards in week 9 and 90 yards in week 8.

In our offensive power rankings, the Chiefs are 10th in the NFL, and they rank 9th in points per game, averaging 24.3. They lead the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 52% success rate, but have struggled in the red zone, ranking 25th with a 20% conversion rate. Kansas City is 24th in the NFL in 1st-quarter scoring.

In their 16-14 win over the Broncos, the Chiefs’ defense allowed 182 passing yards, with Denver completing 73.3% of their passes. The Chiefs gave up two passing touchdowns and struggled on third downs, allowing the Broncos to convert 53.8% of their third down attempts. However, the Chiefs limited the Broncos to just 78 rushing yards on 23 attempts.

Kansas City’s defense recorded two sacks and held the Broncos to 260 total yards in the game. The Chiefs also won the tackles for loss battle, finishing with a +1 differential compared to Denver.

Will The Bills Win At Home Over The Chiefs?

The Bills extended their winning streak to five games with a 30-20 victory over the Colts in week 10, bringing their record to 8-2. Buffalo is now in first place in the AFC East and ranks 2nd in the conference. Our projections give the Bills a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs and winning their division. They are 3rd in our NFL power rankings heading into week 11.

Buffalo has an average scoring margin of +9.7 points per game and is 6-4 against the spread this season. They covered the 4.5-point spread against the Colts but couldn’t cover the 6-point line in their 30-27 win over the Dolphins in week 9. The over hit in both of those games, and the Bills’ O/U record is 6-4 this season.

Josh Allen threw for 280 yards in week 10, completing 22 of 37 passes, but he didn’t find the end zone and had two interceptions. James Cook led the ground game with 80 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries, while Mack Hollins had 86 receiving yards on 4 catches. The Bills scored 10 points in the 1st, 2nd, and 4th quarters against the Colts, but were shut out in the 3rd.

Buffalo ranks 3rd in our offensive power rankings and is 3rd in the NFL in points per game, averaging 29. They are 13th in passing yards per game (222.5) and 15th in rushing (120.7 yards per game). The Bills are 13th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a success rate of 39.7%.

In their 30-20 win over the Colts, the Buffalo Bills’ defense allowed 121 rushing yards on just 22 attempts. Despite giving up some yardage on the ground, they were effective against the pass, coming up with three interceptions and four sacks. Buffalo’s defense forced the Colts into a 74.3% completion percentage, while holding them to 36.4% on third down.

The Bills allowed 240 passing yards and two passing touchdowns in the game. Their secondary was able to make big plays, even as the Colts found some success moving the ball through the air. Buffalo also had four tackles for loss and won the QB hit battle by +1.