Looking to win big? The Cardinals and Lions face off at 8:00 ET on ESPN+. The Lions are hosting the game at The Field House in Commerce, TX. The over/under for this game is set at 140 points, and Texas A&M-Commerce is favored by -4.5 vs. Incarnate Word in a Southland conference matchup.


The Pick: Texas A&M-Commerce Lions -4.5

This game will be played at The Field House at 8:00 ET on Wednesday, January 31st.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-70 in favor of the Lions.
  • Not only will Texas A&M-Commerce pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -4.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 140 points, and we like the over with a projected 146 points.

Can The Cardinals Secure a Win at Commerce?

Incarnate Word enters today's game against Texas A&M-Commerce as a 4.5-point underdog. The Cardinals have struggled on the road this season, going just 2-9, and they have lost three straight road games.

Overall, Incarnate Word has a record of 6-13, including a 1-5 mark in Southland Conference play. In their last game, the Cardinals defeated Houston Christian by a score of 79-75.

Incarnate Word has an ATS record of 7-9-1 this season, including a 4-6-1 mark on the road. As the underdog, the Cardinals are 7-7-1 vs. the spread in 2019-20. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, Incarnate Word has gone 5-5 ATS.

Incarnate Word's over/under record for the season sits at 9-8. So far, their games have averaged 150.6 points, which is higher than today's over/under line of 140. In their last three games, the over/under record is 3-0 and the average scoring total is 150 points.

Incarnate Word is fresh off a strong offensive showing, putting up 79 points versus Houston Christian. This output is higher than their season-average of 73.4 points per game. Currently leading the team in scoring is Sky Wicks who comes into today's matchup averaging 14.5. Josiah Hammons also heads into the game with a PPG average of 13.5.

At this time, the Cardinals' defense is positioned 289th in the country, permitting 78.4 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Incarnate Word's defense has allowed opponents to shoot 42.6% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 31.9% this season.

Can the Lions Please their Home Crowd?

After losing their last game to Texas A&M-Corpus Christi by a score of 69-54, Texas A&M-Commerce will look to get back on track. So far, the Lions have gone 2-4 at home this season and 5-5 in their last 10 games at home.

Overall, Texas A&M-Commerce has a record of 7-13. They have gone 1-5 in Southland Conference games and 6-8 in non-conference matchups. So far, the Lions have been the underdog in 13 of their 20 games, going 3-10 in those contests.

As the favorite, Texas A&M-Commerce has struggled against the spread this season, going just 1-2 vs. the spread. Their overall ATS mark for the year is currently 7-9. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Lions are just 1-9 vs. the spread.

Today's over/under line of 140 for the Texas A&M-Commerce game is slightly lower than the average OU line in their games this year (142.5). So far, their over/under record is 5-11, and over their last five games, the average scoring total is 137 points.

The Texas A&M-Commerce offense is coming off a game in which they scored 54 points vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Overall their field goal percentage was 32.7% while connecting on 8 threes. The team's top scorer is Kalen Williams, who enters today's matchup with an average of 14.2, while Jerome Brewer Jr. also carries a PPG average of 14.1 into the game.

In terms of defense, Texas A&M-Commerce is currently on par with the NCAA average for points allowed, giving up an average of 73.6 points per game. Against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, the Lions' defense gave up 69 points and did a good job not fouling. For the game, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi only made 10 free-throws.