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<p>Monday's matchup between the Guardians and Orioles is set to get started at 6:35 PM ET from Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore. The Guardians are currently on a five-game winning streak and their record of 49-26 has them in 1st place in the AL Central. The Orioles are 2nd in the AL East with a record of 49-28 but they come into this one on a three-game losing streak.</p>

<p>Cleveland is starting Tanner Bibee, while the Orioles are sending Cade Povich to the mound. On the money line, the Guardians are the slight underdog, with their odds sitting at +100 compared to the Orioles at -119. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs, and the game can be seen on MASN.</p><h3>BALTIMORE ORIOLES VS CLEVELAND GUARDIANS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline -119</p><p>This game will be played at Oriole Park at Camden Yards at 6:35 ET on Monday, June 24th.</p><h3>HOW TO BET THE GUARDIANS VS ORIOLES:</h3><ul><li>We have the Orioles winning by a score of 6 to 5</li><li>If you're looking for a run line pick, we also like the Orioles to cover</li><li>As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over</li></ul><h3>Guardians Records & Stats</h3><p>The Guardians's offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Blue Jays, closing out their series with a 6-5 win. After allowing two runs to the Blue Jays in the top of the first, the Guardians responded with three runs of their own. Cleveland went on to add another three runs in the 3rd inning.</p>

<p>Triston McKenzie got the start for the Guardians, going three innings and giving up three earned runs on three hits. He also issued four walks. Josh Naylor was hot at the plate, going 3/5 with a homer and a run scored. The Guardians also had three other players with two hits.</p><p>Cleveland is 49-26 overall and leads the AL Central by 7.5 games over the Twins. The Guardians have won five straight games, and they are 11-6 against other teams in the AL Central. They closed out their series with the Blue Jays with three straight wins.</p>

<p>At home, the Guardians have gone 26-9 this season, and they are 23-17 on the road. So far, they have been really good in day games, going 20-8 this season. As the favorite, the Guardians are 35-15 this year, and they are 14-11 as the underdog. Cleveland's series record is 17-6-2 this year.</p><p>The Guardians have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 43-32 overall. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 23-17 ATS. Their average run margin this season is +1.4, and they have covered the run line in 20 of 35 road games.</p><p>When the Cleveland Guardians are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs today against the Baltimore Orioles. The Guardians' games have seen an average of 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 36-33. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 8-11. This season, 54.7% of their games have had lower over/under lines than 8.5 runs.</p><p>Cleveland is sending right-hander Tanner Bibee to the mound today as he faces the Orioles on the road. Bibee has made 15 starts this season and has a record of 5-2 with a 3.65 ERA. In his last outing, he didn't give up a run in six innings of work, picking up the win. Looking back over his last four outings, Bibee has given up two earned runs or fewer in three of them. So far, he has allowed 10 home runs and is averaging 10.95 strikeouts per nine innings. Bibee has a WHIP of 1.13 for the season.</p><p>As a team, the Guardians are the 3rd highest-scoring team in the league, averaging 5.1 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.2 runs per contest. Not only are they one of the best home run hitting teams in the league, but they also have the 6th best isolated power in the league. Currently, they have two players in the top 6 in home runs, with Josh Naylor leading the team and ranked 5th in the league with 20 homers.</p>

<p>Josh Naylor has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 14/38 in his last 10 games with three homers. Steven Kwan and Will Brennan have also been swinging the bat well, with batting averages of .429 and .400 in their last 10 and 9 games, respectively. José Ramírez and Bo Naylor are both on three-game hitting streaks.</p><h3>Orioles Records & Stats</h3><p>The Orioles will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Astros with an 8-1 loss. Baltimore was actually the slight favorite on the money line going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Astros scored four times in the first.</p>

<p>Offensively, the Orioles only had one fewer hit than the Astros but scored just one run. Their lone run came in the 6th inning. Jordan Westburg, who went 1/4 with a homer, was the only Orioles hitter to score. Ryan Mountcastle also had a good day at the plate, going 2/4 with a run scored.</p><p>With an overall record of 49-28, the Orioles are 2nd in the AL East, trailing the Yankees by 1.5 games. The Orioles dropped the final three games of their series vs. the Astros and are 4-6 across their last ten games. So far, they have been great against other AL East teams, going 19-7.</p>

<p>At home, the Orioles are 25-14 this season, and they have gone 24-14 on the road. As the favorite, the Orioles are 39-22, and they are 10-6 as the underdog. So far, they have an overall series record of 17-5-3. As for their most recent series, the Orioles were swept by the Astros.</p><p>When the Orioles win, they win big, with an average run margin of 4.0 runs in those games. They have also been a good bet against the run line, going 46-31 overall and 22-17 at home. They have been especially good against the run line on the road, going 24-14. As the underdog, they are 12-4 against the run line.</p><p>When the Baltimore Orioles play at home, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. The Orioles have played 67 games this season, and the average combined run total in those games is 9.0 runs. Overall, the over/under record for Orioles games this season is 39-28, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 15-8. So far this season, 22.1% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, and 48.1% of their games have had lower lines.</p><p>Cade Povich will be making his third start of the season for the Orioles, and he will be taking on the Guardians at home. Povich has a no-decision in each of his first two starts, and in his most recent outing, he went 4 2/3 innings and gave up just 1 earned run. He struck out 6 in his first start, and 5 in his last outing.</p><p>Adley Rutschman has been red hot for the Orioles, going 11/24 in his last six games, but he has yet to homer during that stretch. For the season, he is batting .302 with 14 home runs and 53 RBIs, which is 9th best in the league. Gunnar Henderson also has 53 RBIs this season, and his 24 homers is the 2nd best mark in the MLB.</p>

<p>As a team, the Orioles are the top home run hitting team in the league and are also 1st in the league in runs scored at 5.2 per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.5 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting .253 as a team and have the league's top slugging percentage.</p>

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick & Prediction 6/24/24

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One more lap would be nice, but 68 laps are scheduled for this weekend’s EchoPark Texas Grand Prix. No, it’s not an F1 race. No, it’s not an IndyCar race. It is a NASCAR Cup Series race named a Grand Prix. If that sounds weird to you, that’s because it really, truly is.

The drivers will race at the Circuit of the Americas for the first-time ever in one of seven road course races on the docket and the first of two in a row with a stop at Sonoma next week. The Circuit of the Americas, better known as COTA, is down in Austin, Texas, which also means that we’ll have a big crowd in attendance.

Let’s see if we can make sense of a new course with a lot of twists and turns during a NASCAR season that has already brought a lot of them. The odds are from <a href="http://bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/betonline"><strong>BetOnline Sportsbook</strong></a>.
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="295">Chase Elliott</td>
<td width="295">+240</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Martin Truex Jr</td>
<td width="295">+425</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Denny Hamlin</td>
<td width="295">+900</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Kyle Busch</td>
<td width="295">+1200</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Kyle Larson</td>
<td width="295">+1200</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Ryan Blaney</td>
<td width="295">+1400</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Brad Keselowski</td>
<td width="295">+1600</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Kevin Harvick</td>
<td width="295">+1600</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Alex Bowman</td>
<td width="295">+1800</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Christopher Bell</td>
<td width="295">+1800</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Joey Logano</td>
<td width="295">+1800</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">William Byron</td>
<td width="295">+1800</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">AJ Allmendinger</td>
<td width="295">+2200</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Austin Cindric</td>
<td width="295">+2200</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Kurt Busch</td>
<td width="295">+3300</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Matt DiBenedetto</td>
<td width="295">+6600</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Michael McDowell</td>
<td width="295">+6600</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Chase Briscoe</td>
<td width="295">+8000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Chris Buescher</td>
<td width="295">+8000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Cole Custer</td>
<td width="295">+8000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Erik Jones</td>
<td width="295">+8000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Aric Almirola</td>
<td width="295">+10000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Daniel Suarez</td>
<td width="295">+10000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Tyler Reddick</td>
<td width="295">+10000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Austin Dillon</td>
<td width="295">+15000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Ryan Newman</td>
<td width="295">+15000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Darrell Wallace Jr</td>
<td width="295">+20000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Ricky Stenhouse Jr</td>
<td width="295">+20000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Ryan Preece</td>
<td width="295">+20000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Ross Chastain</td>
<td width="295">+25000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Ty Dillon</td>
<td width="295">+30000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Justin Haley</td>
<td width="295">+50000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Anthony Alfredo</td>
<td width="295">+75000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Corey LaJoie</td>
<td width="295">+75000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">James Davidson</td>
<td width="295">+75000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Cody Ware</td>
<td width="295">+100000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Garrett Smithley</td>
<td width="295">+100000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Josh Bilicki</td>
<td width="295">+100000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Kyle Tilley</td>
<td width="295">+100000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="295">Quinn Houff</td>
<td width="295">+100000</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3><strong><u>EchoPark Texas Grand Prix Betting Odds</u></strong></h3>
It should come as no surprise that Chase Elliott is the favorite at +240. He seems to do very well on the road courses and there are a lot of drivers that win a lot on ovals, but simply don’t like them. He can win anywhere and is a deserving favorite in this one.

Martin Truex Jr. is the second favorite at +420. He’s got three wins already this season, but only has two top-five finishes otherwise, as he’s been all over the place and a little inconsistent. That said, he’s also been a factor in a lot of races.

After those two, things get really interesting. Denny Hamlin is +900, followed by the Kyles, Busch and Larson, at +1200. Ryan Blaney is +1400 with Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick at +1600 and a quartet of guys at +1800.

Naturally a road course, especially and unknown one, is going to depress some of the favorite prices and compress some of the middle-tier guys. Here, though, we see Elliott and Truex much lower as favorites, so that drags a lot of other guys down.

Case in point, guys like AJ Allmendinger and Austin Cindric are +2200. On an oval, those guys would be three or four times higher on the price.
<h3><strong><u>Circuit of the Americas Overview</u></strong></h3>
Circuit of the Americas, henceforth referred to as COTA, has 20 turns across a 3.426-mile layout. A lot of them are just small little directional deviations, but there are some very tight turns on the backside of the track after the long straightaway between turns 11 and 12.

There may be some drivers that have some level of exposure here, but most do not. That is why we’re seeing Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Cole Custer, Tyler Reddick, and Austin Dillon all in the Xfinity Series race for this weekend.

This course is a lot more like the courses that we would see in F1. Track architects and visionaries had a lot more background with courses around the globe, so this won’t be like the road courses you see at Charlotte, Sonoma, Watkins Glen, or anything like that.

The course can fit 120,000, but we’ll see how many do show up on Sunday for the 1:30 p.m. CT start.
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<h3><strong><u>Road Course Standouts</u></strong></h3>
With no NASCAR data from COTA, we need to look at guys that have done well on road courses recently to see if we can find the drivers that like these formats and have success with them. Obviously all road courses are created differently. A lot of ovals are fairly standard, with little nuances and quirks like different degrees of banking in the turns, but a lot of them are somewhat boilerplate.

This course is a lot different. It is the F1 layout as opposed to a road course designed more for stock cars. In any event, it’s about the best we can do to handicap for this one.

Christopher Bell won on the Daytona Road Course in the second race of the season, but Chase Elliott won the first stage and led the most laps. Joey Logano was a surprise second and Denny Hamlin was third and won the second stage.

The schedule last year was all thrown off because of COVID, but Elliott won the road course race at Daytona and also the Charlotte Roval race. Hamlin was second at Daytona and Logano was second on the Roval. Others in the top five between those races were Hamlin, Truex, Kurt Busch, Blaney, and Erik Jones.

Two years ago, we saw Truex win at Sonoma and finish second at Watkins Glen. The Watkins Glen win went to Elliott, who also won on the Roval. There are a lot more road courses now this year, so that should excite both of those guys.
<h3><strong><u>EchoPark Texas Grand Prix Picks</u></strong></h3>
One of Elliott or Truex probably wins the race, but the prices are so short that better bets are on the board. Christopher Bell had a lot of success in the Xfinity Series, where there are more road courses like Road America and Mid-Ohio. He won at Daytona earlier this year as well, so he’s a good look at +1800.

Ryan Blaney is also a decent bet at +1400. He won on the Roval back in 2018 and had a couple top-five finishes on road courses in 2019. He also runs well bunched up at Talladega, so tight racing conditions aren’t as problematic for him.

Coverage of the EchoPark Texas Grand Prix will be on FS1 with a 2:30 p.m. ET start time.
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2021 EchoPark Texas Grand Prix Betting Odds & Predictions

<p>The Red Sox will be looking to continue their two-game winning streak when they host the Blue Jays at Fenway Park in Boston. However, they come into the game as the slight money line favorite, with the Blue Jays being offered at +120 on the money line. Tonight's over/under line is at 8.5 runs.</p>

<p>First pitch for this AL East matchup is set for 7:10 PM ET, and the forecast for Monday's game in Boston calls for scattered clouds and temperatures in the low 80s. Chris Bassitt is starting for the Blue Jays, and the Red Sox are going with Tanner Houck. Toronto is 5th in the AL East, and the Red Sox are 3rd overall.</p><h3>BOSTON RED SOX VS TORONTO BLUE JAYS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline -145</p><p>This game will be played at Fenway Park at 7:10 ET on Monday, June 24th.</p><h3>HOW TO BET THE BLUE JAYS VS RED SOX:</h3><ul><li>We have the Red Sox winning by a score of 6 to 5</li><li>However, if you're looking for a run line pick, we like the Blue Jays to cover</li><li>As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over</li></ul><h3>Blue Jays Records & Stats</h3><p>The Blue Jays will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Guardians with a 6-5 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 9th inning before the Guardians scored two runs in the bottom of the 9th. Toronto was the -104 favorite on the money line going into the game.</p>

<p>Offensively, the Blue Jays were carried by Spencer Horwitz, who went 2/3 with two homers and three RBIs. However, the Blue Jays wasted a big game from Horwersitz, as they couldn't close things out. Yusei Kikuchi got the start for the Blue Jays and took the loss. He only lasted two innings, giving up four earned runs. The Blue Jays also issued three walks in the 9th inning.</p><p>Toronto is on the road today vs. the Red Sox, having lost six straight games, and they are 15.5 games behind the Yankees in the AL East. The Blue Jays are 35-42 overall and are 5th in the AL East. So far, they are 9-13 in divisional games.</p>

<p>At home, the Blue Jays are 18-19 this year and 17-23 on the road. This season, they are just 6-22 as the underdog, and their overall series record is 9-12-4. Toronto's series losing streak is at two games right now, and they lost their most recent series vs. the Guardians.</p><p>When the Blue Jays are on the road, they have been a good bet to cover the run line, going 22-18. Their average run differential in those games is -0.4, and they have been outscored by an average of 0.6 runs per game overall. They have been a better bet to cover the run line as the underdog, going 12-16, compared to 23-26 as the favorite.</p><p>When the Toronto Blue Jays are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, which is slightly higher than their season average of 8.3 runs per game. Overall, the Blue Jays have an over/under record of 33-41, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, the Blue Jays have gone over the total in 8 of 23 games.</p><p>Chris Bassitt is looking to build off his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Red Sox on June 18th, he went six innings, giving up two earned runs, six hits, and two homers. Looking back over his last three outings, Bassitt has finished with a no-decision in each one. He has made 15 starts this season and has a record of 6-6 with a 3.52 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .257 off the right-hander this season. Bassitt's ERA at home is 5.51 compared to 3.26 on the road.</p><p>So far this season, the Blue Jays offense has really struggled, as they are averaging just 3.8 runs per game (27th) and are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and batting average. One thing they have done well is avoid striking out, as they are 3rd in the league in fewest strikeouts. As a team, they are batting just .232, which is 18th in the league.</p>

<p>Currently, Davis Schneider and Daulton Varsho are 2nd and 3rd on the team in home runs, but both have struggled in terms of batting average, with Schneider hitting .225 and Varsho at .207. Varsho does come into the game on a two-game hitting streak. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting .279 this season and has gone deep nine times.</p><h3>Red Sox Records & Stats</h3><p>The Red Sox's offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Reds, closing out their series with a 7-4 win. After allowing one run to the Reds in the bottom of the first, the Red Sox responded with four runs of their own. Boston went on to add another three runs in the 4th inning.</p>

<p>Zack Kelly got the start for the Red Sox, going 2 2/3 innings, and didn't give up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out three. Rob Refsnyder was only 1/4, but his one hit was a home run, and the Red Sox scored three runs in the 4th.</p><p>Boston is 3rd in the AL East, trailing the Yankees by nine games. Overall, the Red Sox are 42-36 as they get set to host the Blue Jays today. The Red Sox have won two straight games, and they are 8-2 across their last 10 games.</p>

<p>At home, the Red Sox are 18-20 this season compared to 24-16 on the road. So far, they have gone 21-15 as the favorite and an even 21-21 as the underdog. Boston's series record is 12-9-4 this year, and they have won four straight series.</p><p>When it comes to betting the run line on the Red Sox, it's been a mixed bag. Boston is 37-41 overall, but they've been much better on the road (23-17) than at home (14-24). They've covered the run line in two straight games at Fenway Park, but as the favorite, they're just 12-24 against the run line.</p><p>When the Red Sox are at home, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, and their games have averaged 8.7 runs per game. Boston's over/under record is 35-38, and their games have had an average line of 8 runs. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, the over/under record is 13-11. This season, 26.9% of their games have had lines set at 8.5 runs or higher, while 42.3% have had lines set lower than 8.5 runs.</p><p>Tanner Houck has been tough to hit this year, coming into the game with an ERA of 2.14. He has made 15 appearances and 15 starts this year, finishing with a record of 7-5. Houck has one complete game shutout and 12 quality starts this year. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts. The right-hander has been especially tough on the road, with an ERA of 1.89 compared to 2.55 at home.</p><p>Boston comes into today's game as one of the top-scoring teams in the league, averaging 4.7 runs per contest. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per game. Overall, the Red Sox are 6th in team batting average at .254 and have the league's best BABIP at .32. Boston also has the 5th best on-base percentage in the league and have done a good job of limiting strikeouts.</p>

<p>Jarren Duran and Tyler O'Neill have been swinging hot bats of late, with Duran going 13/32 in his last seven games, and O'Neill is 7/21 with three homers in his last six games. Duran is also on a 13 game hitting streak. For the season, O'Neill is the team's leader in homers, while Rafael Devers is 2nd on the team with 14 homers and has driven in 39 runs.</p>

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick & Prediction 6/24/24

<p>Kickoff for the Rams and 49ers matchup on Sunday, January 7th is set for 4:25 ET. This week 18 NFL showdown will be televised on FOX. c</p><h3>LOS ANGELES RAMS VS SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: San Francisco 49ers -3.5</p><p>This game will be played at Levi's Stadium at 4:25 ET on Sunday, January 7th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 28-23 in favor of the 49ers.</li><li>Our projections have Matthew Stafford finishing with 251.714 passing yards on 21.86/34.065 passing.</li><li>The 49ers are projected to finish with 378 yards of offense compared to the 353 yards for the Rams.</li></ul><h3>Is a Road Win Possible for Los Angeles?</h3><p>As they prepare to face the 49ers, the Rams hold a 9-7 record. Within the NFC-West, they currently sit in 2nd place and are 6th place in the NFC. Against the spread, the Rams have a record of 9-6-1. Their average scoring margin for the season is currently +1.6.</p><p>On offense, the Rams are currently averaging 23.9 points per game, ranking them 7th in the NFL. This season, Los Angeles' passing offense ranks 12th in passing attempts. With an average of 244.6 passing yards per game, they hold the 8th spot in the NFL.</p><p>Looking at their ground game, the Rams have been carrying the ball an average of 27.6 times per game and are 10th in rushing yards. They have an average of 4.4 yards per rushing attempt.</p><p>On defense, the Rams come into the game ranked 16th in tackles for loss and 13th in sacks. Opponents are scoring 22.3 points per game vs. them along with an average of 340.2 yards per contest.</p><h3>Is It the 49ers Game to Lose at Home?</h3><p>Looking at the NFC-West standings, the 49ers are in 1st place on a record of 12-4. In the NFC, San Francisco is in 1st place heading into week 18. So far, San Francisco has gone into all of their games as the favorite and have a 3-4 ATS record at home compared to 6-2-1 on the road vs. the spread. San Francisco's average scoring margin sits at 12.1 points per game.</p><p>In terms of offense, the 49ers are at 29.4 points per game, ranking them 3rd in the NFL. As a team, San Francisco is 2nd in the NFL in passing yards per game (263.1). Their passing yards per attempt figure of 9.1 is 1st in the league.</p><p>The 49ers have been running the ball an average of 29.4 times per game and currently hold the 3rd spot in the league in rushing yards. Their average yards per rushing attempt is 4.9.</p><p>San Francisco is 2nd in points allowed defensively. So far, their opponents are putting up an average of 17.3 points per game, accumulating 306.8 yards per contest.</p>

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers Betting Pick & Prediction 1/7/24

The Final Four is set. We’ll have the Battle of the Lone Star State between Houston and Baylor and then the Battle of the West Coast between UCLA and Gonzaga. Despite everything crazy that has happened this March Madness, we still get two #1 seeds, a #2 seed, and then an out-of-nowhere #11 seed in the Final Four. Some semblance of normalcy.

We’ll look at both games, obviously, but here is the preview for Houston vs. Baylor. Baylor is -5 per our good friends at <a href="http://bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/bookmaker"><strong>Bookmaker Sportsbook</strong></a> with a total of 135 in the matchup that features the champion of the South Region vs. the champion of the East Region.
<h3><strong><u>Houston</u></strong><strong><u> Cougars</u></strong></h3>
The Cougars have not had the toughest of paths to the Final Four. An opening-round win over Cleveland State was like a controlled scrimmage before a game that was way too close for comfort against Rutgers. Syracuse and Oregon State advanced to the Sweet 16 and the Elite Eight, respectively, so the #2 seed Houston played four double-digit seeds to get to this point.

Sure, slowing down an Oregon State team on a heater is impressive to a degree, but Houston has not performed well offensively since that Cleveland State win and has won on the back of its defense. The Cougars have posted eFG% marks of 44.1%, 44.2%, and 41.1% in the last three games. Going 11-of-32 from three against Oregon State was the deciding factor, as the Cougars only made 9-of-30 two-point shots.

This is not a great offensive team. The Cougars are terrific on the offensive glass and have taken great care of the basketball. Other than that, this is a team that ranks 137th in eFG% offense, 111th in 3P%, and 191st in 2P% per Bart Torvik. They’ve struggled to make a lot of shots and played in a pretty weak AAC. Houston’s strength of schedule ranks 95th overall per Torvik and 96th per Ken Pomeroy.

Defensively, though, this is a world-class squad. The Cougars are eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency per both Torvik and KenPom. They lead the nation in eFG% defense at 43.3%. They’re fifth in 2P% defense, 12th in 3P% defense, and 10th in Block%. They protect the rim extremely well and have also done a good job forcing turnovers.

In the tournament so far, opponents are 51-of-121 on twos for a success rate of 42.1%, which is slightly better than their season average of 42.9%. Opponents are 24-of-70 from three, which is 34.3%, clearly better than the 29.2% they’ve allowed overall.

That is a concerning stat to me. Houston has been as good or slightly worse defensively in this tournament as their full body of work while playing four double-digit seeds. Now Baylor awaits, as far and away the best team Houston has played this season.
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<h3><strong><u>Baylor Bears</u></strong></h3>
The Baylor Bears have had a much tougher road. They downed Hartford in the first round, but then played Wisconsin, Villanova, and Arkansas. Those are all top-20 caliber teams and actually rank 13th, 12th, and 19th for Ken Pomeroy. Houston’s last three opponents rank 38th, 41st, and 43rd.

Baylor has won those games by 13, 11, and nine points, though the Arkansas game could have been finished by an even higher margin. Baylor was in control of that game for the most part throughout. The Bears never trailed in the game.

Baylor’s defense was the big question coming into this tournament. Arkansas did score 1.051 points per possession in the game, but was limited to just 3-of-11 on threes. Hartford had .715 PPP in the opener. Wisconsin followed with .982 thanks to a 50% day from two and an 8-of-21 performance from three, but that game was never close. Villanova had just .887 PPP. Baylor has defended the three-point line pretty well overall and has continued to win the turnover battle in lopsided fashion.

That will be the key for Baylor in terms of running away with this game. In the four NCAA Tournament games so far, Baylor has 29 turnovers. Opponents have 69. Nice. To be fair, 24 of those belong to Hartford, but Villanova was one of the best teams in the country at taking care of the basketball and Baylor forced 16 turnovers in a game played to just 57 possessions.

If Baylor doesn’t win the turnover battle, we’ll have to look to the glass. Both teams are extremely adept at pulling down offensive rebounds, but Baylor struggles a bit on the defensive end in that department. Houston is pretty pedestrian as well. This should be a tough, rugged, physical game on the glass. These teams are second and seventh in ORB%, with Baylor trailing slightly.

That being said, Baylor projects to make more shots as the vastly superior offense. Baylor leads the nation in 3P% and is in the top 50 in 2P%. Houston can only dream of making that many shots on offense.
<h3><strong><u>Pick &amp; Analysis</u></strong></h3>
There are a lot of similarities between these two teams, but also a lot of differences. Baylor has the far better offense, but Houston has the better defense, at least in terms of keeping shots from going in the basket. However, Baylor has faced the 80th-ranked schedule by opposing offenses and Houston the 118th. That gap is even wider here as far as NCAA Tournament teams go.

Both teams are good on the offensive glass and suspect on the defensive glass. Houston is a much slower team from a tempo standpoint, but Baylor has played two slow-paced games in this tourney and held Arkansas to a slower pace last game.

All in all, I have to look at Baylor -5. I know the metrics sites are much closer to a pick ‘em here, but I feel like we know a lot more about Baylor against top competition. The Bears have played 10 Quadrant 1 games to just three for Houston and those games were Syracuse, SMU in January, and Texas Tech around Thanksgiving. Baylor seems to have fixed any of the issues from the COVID pause. I’m on Daaaaaa Bears.
<h4><strong>Pick: Baylor -5</strong></h4>
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Houston vs. Baylor Final Four College Basketball Pick and Preview 4/3/21

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