Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Betting Pick & Prediction 12/21/24
The Texans are favored on the road with a money line of -133 as they take on the Chiefs at 1:00 ET on Saturday, December 21st. This week 16 AFC matchup is being televised on NBC, and the Texans are -2 point favorites. The over/under line is currently at 40 points. The Chiefs are the underdog with a +111 money line.
HOUSTON TEXANS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Houston Texans -2
This game will be played at Arrowhead Stadium at 1:00 ET on Saturday, December 21st.
WHY BET THE HOUSTON TEXANS:
- We have the Texans winning this one by a score of 26 to 21
- Not only do we have the Texans winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -2
- Look for this game to go over the line of 40 points
Will The Texans Pick Up A Win On The Road?
With a 9-5 record, the Texans sit atop the AFC South, and they have a 100% chance of winning the division and making the playoffs. Houston ranks 11th in our power rankings heading into week 16, and they are on a two-game winning streak, including a 20-12 win over the Dolphins in week 15. The Texans were 2.5-point favorites in that game and covered the spread, but the 32 combined points fell short of the 46.5-point O/U line.
Houston has a +2 scoring margin this season and is 6-7-1 against the spread. They are 4-6-1 as favorites and 2-1 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 4-9-1, with the under hitting in two straight games.
Heading into week 16, the Texans rank 20th in our offensive power rankings. They are 11th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 23.4 points per game, and they have been strong in the 1st quarter, ranking 5th in the league. Houston is 18th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions with a 37.2% success rate, and they are 19th in passing yards per game (212.8) despite ranking 9th in pass attempts per game.
C.J. Stroud threw for 131 yards and 2 touchdowns on 18/26 passing in week 15 against the Dolphins. Joe Mixon led the team in receiving with 5 catches for 33 yards, and Dare Ogunbowale had a 35-yard run. Houston scored all 20 of their points in the first 3 quarters, failing to score in the 4th quarter.
The Texans’ defense came up with three interceptions and held Miami to just 30.8% on third down in their 20-12 win over the Dolphins. Despite allowing 172 passing yards, Houston defended the pass well, giving up only 4.3 yards per attempt. Miami finished with just 52 yards rushing on 19 attempts.
Overall, the Texans allowed only 224 total yards and 72.5% completions. They gave up one passing touchdown but made up for it with three key interceptions.
Will The Chiefs Win At Home Over The Texans?
With a 13-1 record, the Chiefs sit atop the AFC standings and have a 100% chance of winning the AFC West. They rank 12th in our power rankings and have a +5 scoring margin this season. Against the spread, Kansas City is 5-8-1, including a 4-7-1 mark as favorites. Their O/U record is 6-8, with the under hitting in three straight games.
After a week 11 loss to the Bills, the Chiefs have won four in a row, including a 21-7 victory over the Browns in week 15. They narrowly beat the Chargers and Raiders in weeks 14 and 13, respectively, and edged out the Panthers 30-27 in week 12.
Heading into week 16, the Chiefs rank 9th in our offensive power rankings and 10th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 23.5 points per game. They are 14th in passing yards per game (224.1) and 15th in rushing yards (112.1), with 36 passing attempts per game (5th) and 27.9 rushing attempts (9th). Despite ranking 22nd in red zone conversion percentage, Kansas City leads the league in 3rd-down conversions and ranks 4th in red zone attempts.
Patrick Mahomes has been dealing with an ankle injury but has avoided interceptions in his last three games. In week 15, he threw for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Browns. Xavier Worthy led the team with 46 receiving yards, and Kareem Hunt had 45 rushing yards. Kansas City scored all 21 points in the first three quarters before being shut out in the 4th.
Despite giving up 139 rushing yards on just 21 attempts, the Chiefs’ defense played well in their most recent game, coming away with four interceptions and allowing just 127 passing yards. They picked up a 21-7 win over the Browns, holding Cleveland to just 7 points. Kansas City’s defense also had five sacks in the game.
The Chiefs’ defense limited the Browns to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down and won the tackles for loss battle. Even though they gave up a high 6.6 yards per attempt in the running game, the big plays in the passing game helped them secure the win.