Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Betting Pick & Prediction 12/19/24

AMZN is set to broadcast the week 16 AFC West matchup between the Broncos and Chargers, which will kick off at 8:15 ET. The Chargers are the favorite with a money line of -161 and are -3 point favorites on the point spreads. The game, played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA, has an over/under line set at 42.5 points. The Broncos’ money line odds are +135.

DENVER BRONCOS VS LOS ANGELES CHARGERS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Denver Broncos +3

This game will be played at SoFi Stadium at 8:15 ET on Thursday, December 19th.

WHY BET THE DENVER BRONCOS:

• We have the Broncos winning this one by a score of 24 to 17
• Not only do we have the Broncos winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +3
• We see this game finishing below the line of 42.5 points

Will The Broncos Pick Up A Win On The Road?

With a 9-5 record, the Broncos currently sit 6th in the AFC and have a 93.1% chance of making the playoffs. However, they have no chance of winning the AFC West. Denver is on a four-game winning streak, including a 31-13 win over the Colts in week 15. They also have a +6.4 scoring margin and are 11-3 against the spread this season.

The Broncos rank 21st in our power rankings heading into week 16. Their O/U record is 9-5, with the over hitting in their last three games. Their games have averaged 41.6 points, compared to an average line of 40.7.

Heading into week 16, the Broncos are 24th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 9th in the NFL in points per game (24) but are 21st in yards per game, averaging 311.1. Denver is 23rd in passing yards per game (202.7) on 33.6 attempts per game, which ranks 10th. On the ground, they are 19th in rushing yards per game (108.4) and 16th in rushing attempts. The Broncos are 16th in the league in 3rd-down conversions (37.7%) and 19th in red zone conversion percentage, despite ranking 10th in red zone attempts.

Bo Nix threw for 130 yards (20/33) with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in week 15 against the Colts. Denver scored 21 points in the 4th quarter after being held scoreless in the 1st. Courtland Sutton led the team with 32 receiving yards on 3 catches, while Nix also led the team in rushing with 23 yards on 8 carries.

Indianapolis managed just 161 passing yards on 44 attempts in their 31-13 loss to the Broncos. Denver’s defense was tough to move the ball against, holding the Colts to 149 yards rushing on 32 attempts. The Broncos’ secondary played well, allowing just 17 completions and holding the Colts to a 44.7% completion percentage.

On third down, the Broncos allowed the Colts to convert just 26.7% of their chances. Denver also came away with two interceptions and didn’t allow any passing touchdowns. Despite struggling against the run, the Broncos’ defense was a major reason for their win, consistently pressuring the quarterback and limiting big plays.

Will The Chargers Win At Home Over The Broncos?

The Chargers have dropped two straight games, including a 40-17 loss to the Buccaneers in week 15, bringing their record to 8-6. Despite the loss, they still have an 87.7% chance of making the playoffs, but they rank 16th in our power rankings heading into week 16. Los Angeles is 4-3 both at home and on the road, and they are 2-2 in division games. They currently sit 3rd in the AFC West and 7th in the AFC.

Against the spread, the Chargers are 9-4-1, with an average scoring margin of +3.4 points per game. They are 8-2 ATS as favorites and 1-2-1 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 5-9, with their games averaging 38.6 points compared to an average line of 42.6.

Heading into week 16, the Chargers rank 15th in our offensive power rankings. They are 17th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 21, and 25th in both passing yards (196.4) and total yards per game (302.1). On the ground, they average 105.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 21st in the league. Los Angeles has struggled on 3rd down, converting just 37.1% of their attempts, which ranks 20th in the NFL. However, they have been efficient in the red zone, converting 41.7% of their opportunities, which is 6th in the league.

In week 15, the Chargers were shut out in the 2nd half, scoring all 17 of their points in the 1st half. Justin Herbert threw for 195 yards, going 21/33 with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Gus Edwards led the team in rushing with 23 yards on 8 carries, while Ladd McConkey had 5 catches for 58 yards and a touchdown. The Chargers failed to convert on 3rd down, going 0/6, but they did score on 2 of their 3 red zone trips.

In their 40-17 loss to the Buccaneers, the Chargers’ defense allowed 506 yards and 223 rushing yards on 39 attempts, giving up 4 touchdowns through the air. Tampa Bay averaged 10.5 yards per passing attempt, with Los Angeles struggling to defend the big play.

The Chargers managed just one sack and allowed the Buccaneers to convert on 60% of their third down attempts. Despite forcing one interception, the Chargers allowed Tampa Bay to complete 81.5% of their passes.