Looking to win big? The Phoenix and Penguins face off at 1:30 ET on ESPN+. The Penguins are hosting the game at Beeghly Center in Youngstown, OH. The over/under for this Horizon League conference contest is set at 140 points, with Youngstown State being favored by -9.5 at home against Green Bay.


The Pick: Green Bay Phoenix +9.5

This game will be played at Beeghly Center at 1:30 ET on Saturday, February 10th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-70 in favor of the Penguins.
  • Even though we have Youngstown State winning straight-up, we like Green Bay at +9.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 140 points, and we like the over with a projected 145 points.

Is A Road Victory Likely for Underdog Green Bay?

Green Bay is coming off a 79-56 win over IUPUI and has won three straight games. The Phoenix have gone 5-5 on the road over their last 10 games and are 5-8 on the road this season.

For the year, Green Bay is 16-9, including a 10-3 record in Horizon League action. As the underdog, the Phoenix are 8-8 compared to 5-1 as the favorite.

Green Bay has been a solid bet against the spread this season, going 16-6. On the road, the Phoenix have an ATS mark of 8-5 and they are 7-3 in their last 10 road games vs. the spread. As the underdog, Green Bay is 11-5 vs. the spread this year and they have gone 4-1 in their last 5 games as the underdog ATS.

Green Bay has an over/under record of 10-11-1 this season, and today's line of 140 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (135.6). So far, 14 of their games have finished with less than 140 points. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-0-1, and the average scoring total in those games is 144 points.

Green Bay is coming off a good offensive performance, putting up 79 points vs. IUPUI. This figure is more than their season average of 69.1 points per game. Leading the team in scoring is Noah Reynolds, who is averaging 19.8 heading into today's matchup. Additionally, Elijah Jones also maintains a PPG average of 8.5 heading into game.

So far this season, the Green Bay defense has been performing well, ranking 50th in the country at 66.6 points allowed per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Green Bay's defense has allowed opponents to shoot 40.2% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 28.4% this season.

Does Youngstown State Have What it Takes at Home?

With an overall record of 18-7, Youngstown State has been dominant at home, going 7-0 and outscoring opponents by an average of 14.3 points per game. The Penguins are also 11-1 when favored, and they have been the favorite in 12 of their 25 games.

Youngstown State's most recent game was an 82-78 loss to Purdue Fort Wayne. Over their last 10 home games, the Penguins have gone 9-1, and their home win streak is currently at seven games.

Youngstown State has been solid against the spread this season, going 12-7. At home, they have an ATS mark of 5-2. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Penguins have gone 6-4 vs. the spread.

Today's over/under line of 140 is lower than the average over/under line of 150.3 in Youngstown State's games this year. So far, their over/under record is 8-10-1. In their last three games, the over/under record is 3-0 and the average scoring total is 168 points.

The Youngstown State offense is coming off a game where they scored 78 points against Purdue Fort Wayne. They posted a field goal percentage of 37.7% and connected on 8 threes. The top scorer for the Penguins was EJ Farmer with 19 points, while DJ Burns also chipped in with 15 points.

At present, the Penguins' defense is nationally ranked 122nd, allowing 70.0 points per game. On average, opposing teams are hitting 6.4 threes per game vs. Green Bay. This has come on three-point shooting percentage of 31.5%.