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<p>On Sunday, November 17th at 8:20 ET, the Bengals and Chargers will face off at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. This week 11 AFC matchup is being televised on NBC. The Chargers are the favorite with a point spread of -1.5 and money line odds of -120. The over/under line is set at 46.5 points.</p><h3>CINCINNATI BENGALS VS LOS ANGELES CHARGERS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -1.5</p><p>This game will be played at SoFi Stadium at 8:20 ET on Sunday, November 17th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE LOS ANGELES CHARGERS:</h3><ul><li>We have the Chargers winning this one by a score of 28 to 21</li><li>Not only do we have the Chargers winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -1.5</li><li>Look for this game to go over the line of 46.5 points</li></ul><h3>Will The Bengals Pick Up A Win On The Road?</h3><p>Heading into week 11, the Bengals sit 15th in our NFL power rankings and have a 36.9% chance of making the playoffs. They are 4-6 on the season, including a 3-2 record on the road. In division play, Cincinnati is 1-2, and they are 2-4 against AFC opponents. This puts them 3rd in the AFC North and 9th in the conference standings.</p> <p>Against the spread, the Bengals are 6-4, with a +0.8 scoring margin. They have covered the spread in two straight games, including a 1-point loss to the Ravens in week 10, where they were 6-point underdogs. The over has hit in three consecutive Bengals games, and their O/U record is 7-3 this season.</p><p>Joe Burrow has been on a tear, following up his 5-touchdown performance in week 9 with 428 passing yards and 4 touchdowns in week 10 against the Ravens. He completed 34 of 56 passes without an interception, posting a passer rating of 108. Ja'Marr Chase was his top target, hauling in 11 catches for 264 yards and 3 touchdowns. On the ground, Chase Brown had 13 carries for 42 yards and a touchdown.</p> <p>Heading into week 11, the Bengals are 5th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 5th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 27, and are 4th in passing yards per game with 254.8. They have struggled in the run game, ranking 29th in rushing yards per game with 89.7, on 22.4 attempts per game.</p><p>Despite winning the tackles for loss battle, the Bengals' defense struggled to generate pressure in their latest game, a 35-34 loss to the Ravens. Cincinnati allowed four passing touchdowns and gave up 290 yards through the air on 25 completions. Baltimore converted 58.3% of their third down attempts, and the Bengals failed to record a single sack while losing the QB hit differential by -12.</p><p></p><p>Overall, the Bengals' defense allowed a completion percentage of 75.8% and 389 total yards in the game. They also gave up 99 yards on the ground, with the Ravens averaging 4.0 yards per rushing attempt.</p><h3>Will The Chargers Win At Home Over The Bengals?</h3><p>With three straight wins, the Chargers now sit at 6-3, giving them an 88.2% chance of making the playoffs, according to our projections. After a week 7 loss to the Cardinals, they bounced back with victories over the Saints (28-6), Browns (27-10), and Titans (27-17). Against Tennessee, L.A. covered the 8.5-point spread, but the 44 points scored in the game went over the 40-point line.</p> <p>Heading into week 11, the Chargers rank 16th in our power rankings. They are 6-2-1 against the spread, with a +7.6 scoring margin. Their O/U record stands at 2-7, with their games averaging 33.8 points per game.</p><p>Heading into week 11, the Chargers are 13th in our offensive power rankings. They are 16th in the NFL in points per game (20.7) and 22nd in passing yards per game (196.4), despite ranking 30th in passing attempts. On the ground, they average 117.9 rushing yards per game, ranking 19th, with 29.6 rushing attempts per game, which is 8th in the league. Los Angeles ranks 12th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage (39.8%) and 6th in red zone conversion percentage.</p> <p>Justin Herbert has been on a roll, posting a passer rating of 123 in week 10, following ratings of 125 in week 9 and 111 in week 8. Against the Titans in week 10, he threw for 164 yards and a touchdown, completing 14 of 18 passes without an interception. Ladd McConkey led the team with 52 receiving yards, while Gus Edwards rushed for 55 yards on 10 carries.</p><p>The Chargers' defense came up with seven sacks in their most recent game, helping them to a 27-17 win over the Titans. Despite allowing 132 rushing yards on just 21 attempts, the Chargers held the Titans to 157 passing yards. Tennessee managed to complete 78.3% of their passes, with two passing touchdowns, but the Chargers limited them to 6.8 yards per attempt.</p><p></p><p>Los Angeles' defense was also strong on third downs, allowing the Titans to convert just 33.3% of their third down attempts. The Chargers' pass rush was effective, as they also had a positive differential in QB hits and tackles for loss.</p>

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers Betting Pick & Prediction 11/17/24

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<p>Don't miss out on the NCAA showdown between the Eagles and Panthers. The game is starting at 7:00 ET on ESPN+, and it's hosted by the Panthers at Nido and Mariana Qubein Arena in High Point, NC. Get ready to place your bets! The over/under for this non-conference contest is set at 154 points, with High Point being favored by -14 over North Carolina Central.</p><h3>NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL EAGLES VS HIGH POINT PANTHERS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: North Carolina Central Eagles +14</p><p>This game will be played at Nido and Mariana Qubein Arena at 7:00 ET on Tuesday, November 12th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL EAGLES:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 78-69 in favor of the Panthers.</li><li>Even though we have High Point winning straight-up, we like North Carolina Central at +14.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 154 points, and we like the under with a projected 147 points.</li></ul><h3>Can the North Carolina Central Offense Score Enough on the Road?</h3><h3>North Carolina Central Eagles Recent Game/Games</h3> 

<p>The Eagles dropped their home opener on Friday, falling 88-82 to Gardner-Webb. North Carolina Central came into the game as -1.5 favorites but couldn’t cover the spread.</p> 

<p>Trailing 47-38 at halftime, the Eagles allowed 41 points in the second half while scoring 44 of their own. The game’s total points of 170 exceeded the O/U line of 142.5.</p><p>In their last game, North Carolina Central put up 82 points, shooting 49.2% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 54%. They were strong inside, hitting 60.5% of their two-point attempts, but struggled from beyond the arc, making just 5 of 20 threes (25%). At the free-throw line, they connected on 15 of 20 attempts (75%).</p> <p>Anthony Selden led the way with 26 points on 10 of 15 shooting, while Josh Smith added 21 points, hitting 3 of 5 from deep. Darryl Simmons II was nearly perfect, going 8 of 9 from the field, including 1 of 1 from three, finishing with 18 points and 6 rebounds. The Eagles also grabbed 12 offensive rebounds and dished out 16 assists in the win.</p><p>North Carolina Central's defense struggled, giving up 88 points on 49% shooting from the field. They allowed 60% on two-point shots, with the opposing team hitting 26 of 43 attempts.</p> <p>From beyond the arc, the Eagles held their opponent to 25% shooting, with just 5 made threes on 20 attempts. However, they sent them to the free-throw line 20 times, where they converted 15 for 75%. North Carolina Central also gave up 12 offensive rebounds.</p><h3>Do the Panthers Have a Shot at a Home Win?</h3><h3>High Point Panthers Recent Game/Games</h3> <p>High Point picked up an 80-71 win over Jackson State on Saturday, November 9th. The Panthers were -23 point favorites going into the game but didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game were 151, just under the O/U line of 154.5.</p> <p>High Point jumped out to a big lead, going up 47-27 at halftime. However, they let Jackson State back into the game in the 2nd half, where they were outscored 44-33.</p><p>High Point's offense was clicking in their latest game, putting up 80 points while shooting 54.8% from the field. Their effective field goal percentage was an impressive 66.7%, thanks to 72.2% shooting from two-point range and 41.7% from beyond the arc. They also hit 82.8% of their free throws, going 24-for-29 from the line.</p> <p>D'Maurian Williams and Romelle Mansel each scored 22 points, with Williams adding 8 assists. Jayme Mitchell Jr. contributed 18 points, hitting 4-of-7 threes, while Abdoulaye Thiam connected on 3-of-4 from deep, shooting 83.3% overall.</p><p>High Point's defense struggled in their last game, giving up 71 points on 54% shooting. They allowed 23 made field goals on 42 attempts.</p> <p>Inside the arc, the Panthers gave up 13 two-pointers on 18 attempts, a 72% shooting percentage. From three-point range, they allowed 10 threes on 24 attempts, a 41% clip. The opposing team also shot 82% from the free-throw line, making 24 of 29 attempts. High Point limited them to 4 offensive rebounds.</p>

North Carolina Central Eagles vs High Point Panthers NCAA Basketball Betting Pick & Prediction 11/12/24

<p>The Ravens are favored on the road as they take on the Steelers at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 17th. The Ravens' money line odds are -175, while the Steelers are at +146. The game is being televised on CBS, and the Ravens are -3 point favorites. The over/under line is set at 47.5 points.</p><h3>BALTIMORE RAVENS VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +3</p><p>This game will be played at Acrisure Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 17th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE PITTSBURGH STEELERS:</h3><ul><li>We have the Steelers winning this one by a score of 29 to 21</li><li>Not only do we have the Steelers winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +3</li><li>Look for this game to go over the line of 47.5 points</li></ul><h3>Will The Ravens Pick Up A Win On The Road?</h3><p>Heading into week 11, the Ravens rank 2nd in our NFL power rankings and have a 99.2% chance of making the playoffs and a 63.1% chance of winning the AFC North. Baltimore is 7-3 this season and has won two straight, including a 35-34 victory over the Bengals in week 10. The Ravens couldn’t cover the 6-point spread in that game, but the 69 combined points easily went over the 53-point line, giving them six straight overs.</p> <p>So far, Baltimore is 5-4-1 against the spread, with a +6.5 scoring margin. Their O/U record is 9-1, with their games averaging 57.1 points compared to an average line of 47.8. In division play, the Ravens are 2-1, and they are 4-1 at home and 3-2 on the road.</p><p>Heading into week 11, the Ravens are leading the NFL in points per game (31.8) and passing yards per game (440.2). They are 3rd in passing yards per game (257.6) despite ranking 25th in passing attempts. Baltimore also ranks 4th in 3rd-down conversions and is 2nd in red zone attempts, though their conversion rate is 31st in the league.</p> <p>Lamar Jackson has been on fire, throwing for 290 yards and 4 touchdowns in week 10, with a passer rating of 141. He hasn’t thrown an interception in his last 3 games. Derrick Henry rushed for 68 yards on 16 carries in week 10, and Tylan Wallace had 3 catches for 115 yards.</p><p>Despite giving up 421 passing yards to the Bengals, the Ravens' defense allowed just 49 rushing yards on 16 attempts in their 35-34 win over the Bengals. Cincinnati had a big day passing the ball, completing 34 passes and four touchdowns, but the Ravens' defense made it tough for them to run the ball.</p><p></p><p>The Ravens' defense recorded three sacks and held the Bengals to a 60.7% completion percentage. However, they did struggle on third down, allowing the Bengals to convert 50% of their third down attempts.</p><h3>Will The Steelers Win At Home Over The Ravens?</h3><p>The Steelers extended their winning streak to four games with a narrow 28-27 victory over the Commanders in week 10, improving their record to 7-2. This puts them atop the AFC North and 3rd in the conference standings. Our power rankings have Pittsburgh 10th heading into week 11, and they have a 94.0% chance of making the playoffs and a 36.3% chance of winning the division.</p> <p>Pittsburgh is 7-2 against the spread this season, including a 4-game ATS winning streak. They covered in week 10, beating Washington as 1.5-point underdogs. The over has hit in four straight Steelers games, including week 10, when they and the Commanders combined for 55 points, surpassing the 45.5-point line.</p><p>Heading into week 11, the Steelers are 14th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 10th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 23.9 points per game, and are 18th in total yards, with 326.3 per game. Pittsburgh has leaned heavily on the run, ranking 2nd in rushing attempts and 8th in rushing yards per game. On the other hand, they are 29th in passing attempts and 26th in passing yards, with 188 per game. The Steelers are 11th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 40% success rate.</p> <p>In week 10, the Steelers scored 28 points in their win over the Commanders, with 7 points in each quarter. Russell Wilson threw for 195 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 1 interception. George Pickens led the team with 5 catches for 91 yards and a touchdown. On the ground, Jaylen Warren had 66 yards on 14 carries.</p><p>The Steelers' defense played well on third downs in their 28-27 win over Washington, allowing just a 35.7% conversion rate. They limited Washington to 182 passing yards on 17 completions and 242 total yards. Pittsburgh didn't allow any passing touchdowns and held Washington to a 50% completion percentage.</p><p></p><p>Against the run, the Steelers gave up just 60 yards on 22 attempts, allowing only 2.7 yards per attempt. They also recorded three sacks and had a positive tackles for loss differential in the game.</p>

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Pick & Prediction 11/17/24

<p>Don't miss out on the NCAA showdown between the Spartans and Tribe. The game is starting at 7:00 ET on FloC, and it's hosted by the Tribe at Kaplan Arena in Williamsburg, VA. Get ready to place your bets! The over/under line for this matchup is currently at 155.5 points, and William & Mary is favored by -1.5 at home against Norfolk State.</p><h3>NORFOLK STATE SPARTANS VS WILLIAM & MARY TRIBE BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: William & Mary Tribe -1.5</p><p>This game will be played at Kaplan Arena at 7:00 ET on Tuesday, November 12th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE WILLIAM & MARY TRIBE:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 78-69 in favor of the Tribe.</li><li>Not only will William & Mary pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -1.5.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 155.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 147 points.</li></ul><h3>Will the Norfolk State Defense Show Up on the Road?</h3><p>Norfolk State picked up an 83-69 win over James Madison on Saturday, November 9th, in a home game where they entered as +5 point underdogs. The Spartans not only pulled off the upset but also covered the spread. The total points for the game reached 152, exceeding the pre-game over/under line of 144.5.</p> <p>After trailing 33-32 at halftime, Norfolk State turned things around in the 2nd half, outscoring the Dukes 51-36.</p><p>Norfolk State put up 83 points in their last game, shooting 60% from the field and 46.7% from beyond the arc. Their effective field goal percentage was 66.7%, and they hit 75.9% of their free throws, going 22/29 from the line.</p> <p>Christian Ings led the way with 22 points, while Bryce Lindsay added 21, knocking down 5 threes. The Spartans didn't record an offensive rebound, but they dished out 12 assists as a team.</p><p>Norfolk State's defense struggled, giving up 69 points on 60% shooting. They allowed 27 field goals on 45 attempts.</p> <p>Inside the arc, the Spartans gave up 20 two-pointers on 30 attempts, a 66% shooting rate. From three, they allowed 7 makes on 15 attempts, or 46% shooting.</p><h3>Do the Tribe Have a Shot at a Home Win?</h3><h3>William & Mary Tribe Recent Game/Games</h3>

<p>The Tribe dropped their season opener on Friday, falling 89-77 to Radford on the road. Entering the game as -2.5 favorites, William & Mary not only lost but also failed to cover the spread.</p> 

<p>Trailing 42-39 at halftime, the Tribe allowed 47 points in the 2nd half while scoring 38. The game’s total points reached 166, surpassing the O/U line of 148.5.</p><p>William & Mary's offense struggled from the field in their last game, shooting just 34.5% overall and 30% from three-point range. Despite the shooting woes, they managed to score 77 points, thanks in large part to their 30 made free throws on 36 attempts (83.3%).</p> <p>Jarvis Moss led the way with 24 points, hitting 4 of 9 from deep, while Ibu Yamazaki was perfect from the field, going 6 for 6, including 4 for 4 from three. The Tribe also grabbed 14 offensive rebounds and dished out 11 assists in the win.</p><p>William & Mary struggled defensively, giving up 89 points on 50% shooting from the field. The Tribe allowed their opponents to hit 64% of their two-point attempts, going 16/25 inside the arc.</p> <p>From three-point range, William & Mary gave up 11 threes on 29 attempts, a 37% shooting clip. They also sent their opponents to the line 34 times, where they converted 24 free throws (70%). The Tribe allowed 13 offensive rebounds.</p>

Norfolk State Spartans vs William & Mary Tribe NCAA Basketball Betting Pick & Prediction 11/12/24

Horse tracks around the world continue to operate with no fans and as much of a skeleton crew as they can have. Tracks in New York have stopped operations, but tracks in Florida have not, and that includes Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Florida. The final race on the card for Saturday March 28 is the Florida Derby and we’ll break that one down for you in its entirety here at BangTheBook.

The Florida Derby is a 1 1/8 mile dirt race that serves as the second race of the second leg of the Kentucky Derby. As we know, the Kentucky Derby has been pushed back to September thanks to COVID-19, so we’ll see how the schedule shakes out.

The UAE Derby was supposed to be run on Saturday as well, but that has since been canceled. So, too, have the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. For now, the Santa Anita Derby is on as scheduled for April 4, but the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn has been pushed back to May 4.

With a win in last week’s Louisiana Derby, Wells Bayou is one of several horses that have enough points to gain entry into the Kentucky Derby. The others are Modernist, Authentic, Ete Indien, Mr. Monomoy, Nadal, Mischevious Alex, Ny Traffic, and King Guillermo, owned by former Cleveland Indians, Boston Red Sox, and Detroit Tigers catcher Victor Martinez, who won the Tampa Bay Derby at 49/1.

As a general rule, the Florida Derby has been a really telling race in terms of the Kentucky Derby. Six Kentucky Derby winners since 2000 have come out of this race. Maximum Security won the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby last year, but his win was taken off the board in one of the most controversial decisions ever.

With that in mind, we take a look at this year’s Florida Derby field and a purse that has been cut from $1.1 million to $750,000 because there will be no patrons in the crowd, thus a loss of revenue for the track.

In fact, we’ll first hope that the race goes off. By continuing to race, the track is violating a county order regarding non-essential businesses. For now, the race is on as scheduled, but we’ll see as Saturday approaches. A legal battle could be coming.

For now, here are the post positions, horses, trainers, jockeys, and morning lines for the Florida Derby:
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="43">Post</td>
<td width="166">Horse</td>
<td width="166">Trainer</td>
<td width="166">Jockey</td>
<td width="48">Odds</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="43">1</td>
<td width="166">As Seen On Tv</td>
<td width="166">K. Breen</td>
<td width="166">P. Lopez</td>
<td width="48">12/1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="43">2</td>
<td width="166">Shivaree</td>
<td width="166">R. Nicks</td>
<td width="166">E. Jaramillo</td>
<td width="48">30/1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="43">3</td>
<td width="166">Disc Jockey</td>
<td width="166">S. Joseph Jr.</td>
<td width="166">T. Gaffalione</td>
<td width="48">20/1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="43">4</td>
<td width="166">Soros</td>
<td width="166">G. Delgado</td>
<td width="166">E. Prado</td>
<td width="48">30/1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="43">5</td>
<td width="166">Gouverneur Morris</td>
<td width="166">T. Pletcher</td>
<td width="166">J. Velazquez</td>
<td width="48">8/1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="43">6</td>
<td width="166">Ajaaweed</td>
<td width="166">K. McLaughlin</td>
<td width="166">L. Saez</td>
<td width="48">20/1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="43">7</td>
<td width="166">Tiz the Law</td>
<td width="166">B. Tagg</td>
<td width="166">M. Franco</td>
<td width="48">6/5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="43">8</td>
<td width="166">My First Grammy</td>
<td width="166">A. Sanchez</td>
<td width="166">H. Berrios</td>
<td width="48">50/1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="43">9</td>
<td width="166">Independence Hall</td>
<td width="166">M. Trombetta</td>
<td width="166">J. Rosario</td>
<td width="48">9/2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="43">10</td>
<td width="166">Candy Tycoon</td>
<td width="166">T. Pletcher</td>
<td width="166">TBD</td>
<td width="48">20/1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="43">11</td>
<td width="166">Sassy But Smart</td>
<td width="166">K. Condie</td>
<td width="166">J. Bravo</td>
<td width="48">50/1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="43">12</td>
<td width="166">Ete Indien</td>
<td width="166">P. Biancone</td>
<td width="166">F. Geroux</td>
<td width="48">4/1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="43">13(AE)</td>
<td width="166">Rogue Element</td>
<td width="166">D. Romans</td>
<td width="166">M. Vasquez</td>
<td width="48">AE</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
As you can see, we’ve got a top-heavy field here. Ete Indien draws a far outside post, but remains the second favorite on the morning line at 4/1. The expectation here is that everybody will be chasing Tiz the Law, who was the clear morning line favorite at 6/5. Independence Hall for the team of Michael Trombetta and Joel Rosario is the third favorite at 9/2.

You notice a TBD next to Candy Tycoon and that is because Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano is in quarantine having tested positive for coronavirus. Castellano will have to cede the mount and no replacement had been named at time of writing. Irad Ortiz Jr. has self-quarantined during all of this, so he will not be the replacement.

Health and safety are paramount, but Pletcher does lose a top rider in his quest for his sixth win in the Florida Derby and fifth since 2014. For what it’s worth, Gouvernor Morris was the likelier option anyway, with John Velazquez in the mount. Pletcher’s three most recent Florida Derby wins have been with Velazquez, as the duo teamed up with Audible in 2018, Always Dreaming in 2017, and Materiality in 2015. Pletcher won with Castellano aboard Constitution in 2014.

Let’s take a look at each horse and construct a betting slip or two for the Florida Derby:

<strong>1. As Seen On Tv (12/1) – </strong>The team of Kelly Breen and Paco Lopez are together again at Gulfstream after a solid effort in the Fountain of Youth Stakes about a month ago. As Seen On Tv ran third to Ete Indien and Candy Tycoon in that race, but the horses were basically four-wide across for second. Four-wide across, eight lengths behind Ete Indien.

Nevertheless, As Seen On Tv, the son of Lookin At Lucky, was second in the one-mile Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream to Chance It back in January in what was essentially a photo finish, with As Seen on Tv second by half a nose. The ride from Lopez will be important here. With a lot of speed in the race, it could be about stamina for As Seen on Tv, who has a burst of its own, but a steady pace could be good enough to hit the board. It has been in all of As Seen On Tv’s other races.

<strong>2. Shivaree (30/1) – </strong>Emisael Jaramillo is an excellent jockey down at Gulfstream, but he’ll need a lot of magic to get Shivaree on the board for Ralph Nicks. Shivaree ran second to With Verve in the Grade 3 Hutcheson Stakes a month ago and second to Mischevious Alex over seven furlongs on February 1 in the Swale Stakes.

Shivaree has only run over a mile once and finished fifth in a race won by Chance It. The pace was decent, but the trip was lackluster. And now Shivaree faces a big step up in class. The length is a worry, too. This horse could be in the hunt for a while, but Jaramillo will have to ask for a lot down the stretch and it might not be there for this sprinter.

<strong>3. Disc Jockey (20/1) – </strong>Disc Jockey is a slightly interesting long shot price here at 20/1. The Saffie Joseph/Tyler Gaffalione duo has had a lot of success with Chance It and will hope to do the same here with a relatively unknown colt. The son of Bodemeister only had one stakes race to his name, a second in the American Fabius over seven furlongs on February 17.

Disc Jockey was a 7/10 favorite in that race, so finishing second can be viewed as a disappointment. The speed figures aren’t really there from previous races, so it is very tough to buy in with a minimal track record in a field that has some legit Derby contenders, but this is one you may want to file away for exotics. If nothing else, keep this one in mind for the undercards of the Triple Crown races. This horse has a great chance to win some money against similarly accomplished horses.

<strong>4. Soros (30/1) – </strong>Like Shivaree, Soros brings a terrific local rider to the table in Edgar Prado, who actually has three career wins in this race with Scat Daddy, Barbaro, and Harlan’s Holiday. None of those were with trainer Gustavo Delgado. Soros is coming off the shelf here with a long stakes layoff after winning the Smooth Air Stakes at Gulfstream back in November with a strong one-mile run.

Soros profiles as a closer, both by bloodline and by results. As horses tire from the length, it is a possibility that Soros will pass some of them. Will he pass enough of them to be a consideration in trifectas or superfectas? Probably not, but Delgado hit the board with Majesto in 2016 and Bodexpress in 2019. Last year’s place finish was with Nik Suarez. Prado is a more accomplished rider. Is there a chance Soros spoils the party for the favorites?

<strong>5. Gouverneur Morris (8/1) – </strong>The Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez connections run deep, as we know. As mentioned already, Pletcher and Velazquez teamed up for wins here in 2015, 2017, and 2018. Will Gouverneur Morris be the next one to add to the list? This is the son of Constitution, who was a winner for Pletcher and Castellano back in 2014 at the Florida Derby.

The problem here is that we haven’t seen a lot from Gouverneur Morris. We know the connections are strong and the bloodline is good, but we don’t have many results. An allowance win at Tampa Bay Downs last month going a mile and 40 was a nice return to the track after a long layoff following a second-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Futurity at Keeneland last October.

Enforceable, who was the favorite last week in the Louisiana Derby, finished third in the Futurity behind Gouverneur Morris and Maxfield, who has not raced since after being scratched in November for a foot issue.

Gouverneur Morris is going to come down from 8/1. We’ll have to wait and see how far.

<strong>6. Ajaaweed (20/1) – </strong>This isn’t right race and maybe not the right track for Ajaaweed, but this is a horse you will want to keep a very close eye on over the summer for betting opportunities. Originally set to run in the Louisiana Derby last week, Ajaaweed now runs in this race because of the travel restrictions brought about by coronavirus.

One of many sons of Curlin, Ajaaweed has a closer’s bloodline, but how much distance will be required to close in a race of this caliber? Ajaaweed finished a very distant third in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs last time out and second to Shotski at Aqueduct in the Remsen Stakes. This is a good horse, but an overmatched horse in this field, even with an excellent team of Kiaran McLaughin and Luis Saez.

<strong>7. Tiz the Law (6/5) – </strong>The son of Florida Derby winner Constitution is the clear favorite in this year’s version. Tiz the Law is 3-for-4 in his young career, including a very impressive win with stunning speed figures in the Holy Bull Stakes. It was an awesome trip for Manny Franco, who darted out of the gate to set the pace. As other challengers emerged, he backed off, including a blocked path on the back stretch.

The fast start and the scaled-back middle gave Tiz the Law more than enough to outrun Ete Indien over the last quarter of the race. It was a dominant, stunning show of speed in the frontstretch and one that barely required any kind of whip. Tiz the Law was just ready to run and even pulled an outside/inside move around the final turn.

This will be a test for Tiz the Law. A similar attempt at a break for Franco could be met with more resistance. There is more class in this race overall. Tiz the Law was only caught up in traffic once in the Holy Bull when the 5 slid in his way. What happens in a larger field with more bunching? There are questions to answer about the environment, but there are not many questions about the speed and stamina.

<strong>8. My First Grammy (50/1) – </strong>The 8 draw is a tough one for a trailer like My First Grammy. This is not a pacesetter or a speed horse. This is an opportunistic horse. With pressure from Ete Indien on the inside, the only hope might be the follow Tiz the Law to the front, but the initial burst isn’t going to be good enough. This is the type of horse that could impact the race by getting in the way of a colt like Independence Hall.

<strong>9. Independence Hall (9/2) – </strong>Hmmm. Another son of Constitution in the Florida Derby. The trip for Joel Rosario could determine a lot here. The extra 1/16 of a mile was problematic in the Sam F. Davis Stakes when Independence Hall pulled up down the final stretch and got passed by Sole Volante. Independence Hall was the 3/5 favorite for Jose Ortiz.

A wide final turn through Independence Hall off-stride a little it and the surging Sole Volante seemed to bother him on the outside. The colt pulled up a little bit and got beaten by more than two lengths. Was it the additional distance? Was it the wide turn? Did it Ortiz hit the gas a few steps too early?

Now the onus is on Joel Rosario. Independence Hall is getting respect for the bloodline and the past results, but 1 1/16 miles was a chore at the end. How will 1 1/8 miles go? Will Rosario know the right time to step on the gas? This horse has tremendous potential, but some question marks, too.

<strong>10. Candy Tycoon (20/1) – </strong>There are a lot of intriguing developments around Candy Tycoon. Manny Franco, who rode Candy Tycoon in the Fountain of Youth, made an easy call to ride Tiz the Law, the clear favorite in the race. Did John Velazquez get to make a choice between the two Pletcher horses? If he did, he chose Independence Hall. Javier Castellano would have been one hell of a consolation prize, but he is now quarantined.

Candy Tycoon has a puncher’s chance in this race. He is probably a welterweight punching up against some light heavyweights and a couple of legitimate heavyweights, but this is a horse with some gumption. Furthermore, Candy Tycoon has already run 1 1/16 miles three times, so the distance shouldn’t be quite as problematic. Of course, Candy Tycoon was no match for Ete Indien and wound up second in a four-wide photo in the Fountain of Youth. This is a horse that could give a game effort and maybe sneak into trifectas or superfectas depending on the trip, but Pletcher’s other colt is the focal point.

<em>Author update: Luis Saez will ride for Javier Castellano.</em>

<strong>11. Sassy But Smart (50/1) – </strong>Sassy But Smart is made for some distance, but not made to go up against horses of this caliber. There aren’t a lot of notable connections for this colt and only one stakes race that resulted in a fourth-place finish on Leap Day last month. The Palm Beach Stakes was a Grade 3 race with a field that had minimal upside. This is a different kind of race.

<strong>12. Ete Indien (4/1) – </strong>Florent Geroux is in the irons once again on Ete Indien, who was dynamic in the Fountain of Youth Stakes last time out, is hoping to do the exact same in this race. It was obvious that some training changes had been made. After coming up short in the final 1/16 to Tiz the Law, Geroux barely had to push the gas for Ete Indien to finish out the Fountain of Youth on a high note.

This is the first race at 1 1/8 miles for Ete Indien, but his third race at 1 1/16 miles went really well. The fact that Ete Indien answered the call as both a pacesetter and then a finisher in the Fountain of Youth is why this race is such an interesting handicap. We know Ete Indien is going to try and shoot out of the 12th post to pace the field. How much does that outside start take out of him early?

That’s what happened in the Fountain of Youth, but Geroux and Ete Indien conserved energy in the backstretch. Will conserving energy work here in the Tiz the Law rematch with other contenders like Independence Hall and Gouverneur Morris that are also content to stalk the pace?

That is the big question here regarding the trip for Geroux. If he doesn’t get the big start and opts to conserve energy, how many horses does Ete Indien need to get past or around before the likely sprint with Tiz the Law?

<strong>13. Rogue Element (AE) – </strong>The alternate is Rogue Element from Dale Romans and Calumet Farm. This looks like the type of horse that will win a lot of money by beating inferior fields, but won’t have the goods against top horses. This far outside post is a challenge and this pace will be a lot to keep up with. If Rogue Element gets in there, passing some horses late in the race will lead to a better finish, but not a finish on the board.

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<strong>Picks</strong>

Tiz the Law will be a factor in this race. Whether you’re betting win/place, exactas, trifectas, daily doubles, whatever else, Tiz the Law should be included in all of them. It has been a decent layoff for Tiz the Law, but he’s got closing speed and is the horse to worry the least about with the extra distance.

Beyond that, Ete Indien is going to deservedly get a lot of run with that Fountain of Youth performance fresh in everybody’s mind. The Gulfstream familiarity and the late charge in the second 1 1/16-mile race on dirt is enough to put Ete Indien in the win/place category as well as the exactas and trifectas.

<strong>Win/Place: 7, 12</strong>

The trip for Javier Castellano with Gouverneur Morris was a little bit of a head-scratcher. He pushed early on the third turn to get out front and wound up cutting the final turn while Maxfield sprinted outside. When Maxfield cut inside to the rail, it threw Gouverneur Morris out of rhythm, so we don’t know if he would have kept up with Maxfield or not. Do we get a different approach from John Velazquez? We very well could.

I actually prefer Gouverneur Morris to Independence Hall at the extra distance. It’s in GM’s bloodline to run longer and the bad last 1/16 mile for Independence Hall in the Sam F. Davis is something I can’t get out of my head.

<strong>Exacta Box: 5/7/12</strong>

The Florida Derby is set for a 6:36 p.m. ET post time on Saturday March 28 and will be shown on NBC Sports Network.

<a href="http://bangthebook.com/tonalists-shape-and-spice-is-nice-hope-for-rematch-in-gulfstream-oaks/691528/"><strong>For thoughts on the Gulfstream Oaks, which is Race 11 on Saturday at 4:49 p.m. ET, check out my race preview.</strong></a>

Florida Derby Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tiz the Law Deserving Favorite

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