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After a really tough week on spotlight games last week, Ohio State gave us a winner to open this week, so let’s hope the bumps in the road from the first week of February are in the rearview mirror. Let’s check in on a new spotlight game tonight, one that features St. John’s at Butler in Big East action.

I think this might be the first Big East game we’ve had this season or at least in quite some time. Games are limited for tonight, but a lot of major conferences are in play and there are some very intriguing matchups on the hardwood.

Butler has grown into a 2.5-point favorite at <a href="http://bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/bookmaker"><strong>Bookmaker Sportsbook</strong></a> with a total of 140 for this matchup in Indianapolis at Hinkle Fieldhouse.
<h3><strong><u>St. John</u></strong><strong><u>’s Red Storm</u></strong></h3>
St. John’s is rolling right along at this point in time because freshman Posh Alexander has found his game. The 6-footer from Brooklyn opted to stay close to home and his emergence as a legitimate scoring threat has elevated the Red Storm’s profile in a big way. The Johnnies have rattled off six wins in a row. Alexander had three games with at least 15 points over the first 14 games. He’s scored at least 15 in all six of the team’s games during this streak.

As Alexander has gotten hot, sophomore Julian Champagnie from Staten Island has kept up his torrid pace. Champagnie led the team with 24 in last Friday’s win over Providence and has scored 20 points or more in eight games now on the season. With the dynamic duo of Alexander and Champagnie firing on all cylinders, St. John’s has gone from 2-6 in league play to 7-6 in league play and from 7-7 overall to 13-7.

Bettors are fading the Johnnies based on early action, though. St. John’s is a pretty poor defensive team, ranking 280th in the nation in eFG% defense. Opponents are shooting 52.8% on two-point shots and 35.6% on three-point shots. St. John’s does play at a fast tempo in hopes of outscoring teams and they’ve been able to do that because of their TO% on defense.

The Red Storm rank 21st in the nation in TO% at 22.8%. That will be a key for tonight’s game against a Butler Bulldogs bunch that takes very good care of the basketball.
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<h3><strong><u>Butler</u></strong><strong><u> Bulldogs</u></strong></h3>
Butler did not take good care of the basketball in the first meeting between these two teams. The Bulldogs had 16 turnovers to just nine for St. John’s in the 69-57 loss. Butler was also just 6-of-24 from beyond the arc. This could be a different Butler team this time around, as East Tennessee State transfer Bo Hodges is in the lineup. Hodges has scored 33 points over the last three games, his only three games of the season.

The hope for LaVall Jordan is that Hodges can provide some consistent scoring punch because Butler simply doesn’t have one. The shot charts on Bart Torvik’s website are littered with red boxes. Butler is only shooting 61.3% at the free throw line. They are only shooting 45.7% on two-point shots, including a poor 55.1% mark on Close Twos. They’ve even missed five dunks. Senior Bryce Nze has had a rough season from the floor. So has fellow senior Jair Bolden, who is shooting 38% from deep, but only 19-of-55 on two-points and just 68% at the stripe.

Jordan just hasn’t found the right mix as of yet. Butler rotates in a lot of guys and now he has to figure out where to work Hodges in. The 6-foot-5 Hodges has played 27, 39, and 31 minutes, so we’ll see if his increased playing time leads to any more efficiency from the Bulldogs.

Butler has also struggled to defend. They rank 288th in eFG% on defense, as opponents are shooting 37% on three-point shots. These are two porous defensive teams, so you would think points could be possible, but St. John’s pushes the tempo and Butler is one of the slowest teams in the country, getting up to 140 could be hard.
<h3><strong><u>Pick &amp; Analysis</u></strong></h3>
I disagree with the line move here and will take St. John’s. Butler beat DePaul last time out, but had 36 free throw attempts to DePaul’s 16 and outscored the Blue Demons 24-9 at the charity stripe. That was effectively the difference in the 10-point win. Butler did not shoot well once again.

St. John’s is humming right along with their top two players in rhythm and they just look like a more cohesive unit. Butler is trying to work on new rotations with Hodges in the lineup and Jordan has been experimenting all season long.
<h4><strong>Pick: St. John’s +2.5</strong></h4>
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St. John's at Butler College Basketball Free Pick & Prediction 2/9/21

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<p>Looking to win big? The Braves and Cougars face off at 11:00 ET on None. The Cougars are hosting the game at Friel Court in Pullman, WA. Bradley is the -1 point favorites in this non-conference matchup against Washington State. The over/under for the game is set at 154 points.</p><h3>BRADLEY BRAVES VS WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Washington State Cougars +1</p><p>This game will be played at Friel Court at 11:00 ET on Friday, November 8th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-70 in favor of the Cougars.</li><li>Not only will Washington State pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +1.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 154 points, and we like the under with a projected 146 points.</li></ul><h3>Can the Bradley Offense Score Enough on the Road?</h3><h3>Bradley Braves Recent Game/Games</h3> 

<p>Bradley opened their season with a dominant 88-60 win over Southeast Missouri State on Monday, November 4th. Playing at home, the Braves entered the game as 20-point favorites and covered the spread. The total points for the game reached 148, surpassing the over/under line of 140.5.</p> 

<p>Bradley took control early, leading 46-29 at halftime. They continued their strong play in the second half, outscoring the Redhawks 42-31.</p><p>Bradley's offense was firing on all cylinders in their last game, putting up 88 points while shooting 56.6% from the field. They connected on 66.7% of their two-point attempts and hit 43.5% from beyond the arc, with an effective field goal percentage of 66%.</p> <p>Key contributions came from BJ Ward, who scored 17 points in just 21 minutes, hitting 3 of 5 from deep. Christian Davis and Jaquan Johnson each added 15 points, with Davis shooting 85.7% overall and grabbing 6 rebounds.</p><p>Bradley’s defense gave up 60 points in their last game, with opponents shooting 55% from the field, including 64% on two-pointers (20/31). From beyond the arc, the opposition hit 10 of 23 threes, good for 43%.</p> <p>At the free-throw line, Bradley’s opponents went 18/25, a 72% clip. The Braves also allowed 10 offensive rebounds in the game.</p><h3>Can the Cougars Grab a Win at Home?</h3><h3>Washington State Cougars Recent Game/Games</h3> 

<p>The Cougars kicked off their season with a 100-92 win over Portland State on Monday, November 4th. Despite being -14.5 favorites at home, Washington State didn’t cover the spread. The game’s total points reached 192, surpassing the over/under line of 153.5.</p> 

<p>Washington State led 46-38 at halftime and put up 54 points in the 2nd half. However, they allowed Portland State to match their 54-point output after the break, indicating some defensive issues.</p><p>Washington State's offense was firing on all cylinders in their last game, putting up 100 points with a 52.6% field goal percentage. They were particularly effective from beyond the arc, hitting 15 threes at a 46.9% clip, contributing to an effective field goal percentage of 66.7%.</p> <p>Cedric Coward led the way with 23 points and 12 rebounds, while Isaiah Watts and Terri Miller Jr. each added 20 points. Ethan Price was perfect from deep, hitting all 3 of his attempts, and Qiant Myers dished out 10 assists to go along with his 14 points.</p><p>Washington State's defense struggled in their last game, giving up 92 points on 52% shooting from the field. They allowed 30 made baskets on 57 attempts.</p> <p>From beyond the arc, their opponents hit 15 of 32 threes, shooting 46%. Washington State also sent them to the line 32 times, where they made 25 free throws.</p>

Bradley Braves vs Washington State Cougars NCAA Basketball Betting Pick & Prediction 11/8/24

<p>Planning on watching today's Predators and Canucks game? Catch the action at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, BC, as the Canucks hosts this showdown at 10:00 ET on ESPN2. The odds for this Western conference game currently have the Canucks as the -1.5 goal favorite with the over/under line sitting at 5.5 goals.</p><h3>NASHVILLE PREDATORS VS VANCOUVER CANUCKS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Vancouver Canucks -1.5</p><p>This game will be played at Rogers Arena at 10:00 ET on Tuesday, April 23rd.</p><h3>WHY BET THE VANCOUVER CANUCKS:</h3><ul><li>Coming in as 1.5 goal favorites, our projections have the Canucks picking up a  4-3 win.</li><li>Take the Canucks on the moneyline</li><li>On the spread, we like Predators (+1.5)</li></ul><h3>Can the Nashville Offense Score Enough on the Road?</h3><p><p>On the season, the Predators have gone 47-30-5 and sit 6th in the Western Conference. In the Central Division, Nashville is in 4th place. Over their last ten games, the Predators have gone just 4-6.</p>

<p>When playing on the road this season, Nashville has gone 24-14-3. As the underdog, the Predators have gone 21-19-3 this year. Currently, Nashville has dropped three straight games when listed as the underdog.</p></p><p>As the underdog, the Predators have gone 27-16 vs. the puck line this season, including a 44-38 mark overall. So far, Nashville has seen 29 of its 43 games as the underdog decided by multiple goals. Their average scoring margin on the road this season sits at +.3 goals per contest.</p>

<p>Over their last 10 games, the Predators have gone just 3-7 vs. the puck line and 4-6 in their last 10 road games. In their last 10 games as the underdog, Nashville has gone 3-7 vs. the puck line. Overall, the team's puck line record on the road is 24-17.</p> <p>For the season, Nashville's games have finished with an average of 6.3 goals per game. Their average over/under line for the season is 6.2. Overall, the Predators have an over/under record of 37-37-8.</p><p>In their last three games away from home, the Predators have a straight up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team's offense averaged 3 goals per game in these contests.</p><p>The Predators come into the game scoring an average of 3.2 goals per game, putting them 10th in the NHL. Regarding shots targeted at the goal per game, they are 8th in the league. Coming into the game, the Predators have a 26-14 record when they have more shots on goal than their opponent. When they have fewer shots on goal, they are 18-15.</p><p>Nashville's leading scorer is Filip Forsberg. So far, he has 48 goals which is 6th in the NHL. In addition to his goal scoring, Forsberg has 46 assists this season.</p><p>Defensively, the Canucks come into the season ranked 26th in goals allowed. Opponents are averaging 28.5 shots per game against Vancouver. For the season, they are ranked 8th in shutouts, coming in with 6 shutouts.</p><p>Goalie Juuse Saros gets the start and has made 64 starts this season. His record at this point is 35-24, and his save percentage is 1.0%.</p><h3>Will Vancouver Pull Through as the Favored Home Team?</h3><p><p>At home this season, the Canucks have gone 27-9-5, and they have been favored in 55 of their 82 games. In the Western Conference, Vancouver is currently in 3rd place with 109 points and a record of 50-23-9. Over their last ten games, the Canucks have gone 6-4, and they have won three of their last five games.</p>

<p>So far this season, Vancouver has gone 29-21 against other teams in the Western Conference, and they have gone 17-9 against Pacific Division opponents. Against teams from the West, the Canucks have gone 35-14-6 when they have been favored, and they have gone 15-9-3 as the underdog.</p></p><p>At home, Vancouver has gone 21-20 vs. the puck line this season and 4-6 in their last ten games. Overall, the Canucks have a puck line record of 41-41, including going 3-7 vs. the puck line in their last ten games. So far this year, Vancouver has 31 wins by multiple goals and 19 wins by just one goal.</p>

<p>Against the puck line, the Canucks are 22-33 when favored and 19-8 when the underdog. In their last five games, Vancouver has gone 3-2 vs. the puck line, and their average scoring margin this year is +.7 goals per contest.</p> <p>For the season, the average number of goals per game in matchups featuring Vancouver is 6.1. The season's average over/under line is currently at 6.3. The Canucks come in with an over/under record of 41-37-4.</p><p>When looking at their past three road matchups, Nashville has an puck line record of 1-2 while averaging 3 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.</p><p>When looking at their offense, the Canucks have an average of 3.4 goals per game this season, positioning themselves 6th in the NHL. In terms of shots on goal per game, they are ranked 26th in the league. In terms of the Canucks' offense during power plays, they are 10th in power play goals and 18th in shorthanded goals.</p><p>Vancouver's leading scorer is Brock Boeser. So far, he has 40 goals which is 17th in the NHL. Boeser also comes into the game with 33 assists.</p><p>Vancouver defense takes on the Predators ranked 26th in goals allowed. On average, opponents are averaging 28.5 shots per game against Vancouver. They also are 8th in shutouts, with 6 shutouts.</p><p>Entering the game, goalie Thatcher Demko has started 51 games this season. His current record stands at 35-14, and his save percentage is 0.922%.</p>

Nashville Predators vs Vancouver Canucks Betting Pick & Prediction 4/23/24

<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The NBA Playoffs are getting all of the focus from the NBA fan base, but other fans are focusing on a bit something different. For all of the teams that did not make the playoffs they may be focusing on something else and that is finding a head coach. &nbsp;&nbsp;</span><b><i>&nbsp;</i></b></p>

<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Betting on the NBA playoffs is always exciting but it is also fun to bet on a future of a franchise. If this is something that you like to do then you need to find a sportsbook that offers all types of betting on the sport. Bovada is a sportsbook that has that type of betting. Not only do they have betting options on the NBA playoffs which includes each game as well as series prices on each series, but they also post future odds on which team will eventually be the champion of the NBA. </span></p>

<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">They also offer unique betting propositions on the league and this is one of the reasons that Bovada is such a special sports betting site. They have been in the sports betting business for decades and they have a quality reputation of being one of the best places to bet on any sport which of course includes basketball. They garnered this reputation by hiring a great management team to run the site, employing a great customer service team to help all of their players and paying everyone out quickly with no problems. Another reason they have skyrocketed to the top of the <a href="http://bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>sports betting world</strong></a> is because they always offer up unique and different wagering options that you will not find anywhere else. </span></p>

<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">They are currently at it again as they have a long list of NBA props that no other sportsbook is offering. They have NBA prop bets that allow the basketball bettor to bet on what team will hire which coach. Currently they have betting props on three teams the Sacramento Kings, Indiana Pacers and the Houston Rockets with the New York Knicks soon to follow. </span></p>

<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">For the Rockets, Bovada is offering up 10 coaches to choose from to become the next head man in Houston with Jeff Van Gundy (+150) the current front runner. The Pacers have 12 options to choose from when it comes to their next head coach and the current favorite is Brian Shaw (+300) and they even have Larry Bird (+1500) as an option. </span></p>

<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Finally when it comes to the Kings, this great sports betting site is giving up 13 options to become the next leader in Sacramento. The current favorite is Sam Mitchell (+500) but this is easily considered the most wide open job in the NBA at the moment. </span></p>

<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Bovada is the only sports betting site that is offering this betting prop so if you want to take your chance on betting on who the next head coach will be for any of these teams you have to sign up at Bovada now. They will also offer up unique betting props on all of the popular sports so <a href="http://bangthebook.com/s/bovada" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><strong>sign up now</strong></a> and see what they have to offer! </span></p>

NBA Coaching Prop Bets at Bovada

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<p>ESPN will be covering this week six college football matchup between the Clemson Tigers and the Florida State Seminoles, set to kick off at 7:00 ET from Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee. Clemson is coming in with a 3-1 record, while the Seminoles have just one win so far this season. The Tigers are favored by -14.5 points, and the over/under line is currently at 47.5 points.</p><h3>CLEMSON TIGERS VS FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Florida State Seminoles +14.5</p><p>This game will be played at Doak Campbell Stadium at 7:00 ET on Saturday, October 5th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES:</h3><ul><li>We have the Clemson Tigers winning this one by a score of 32 to 21</li><li>Even though we like the Clemson Tigers to win, our ATS pick is to take the Florida State Seminoles at +14.5</li><li>Look for this game to go over the line of 47.5 points</li></ul><h3>Will The Clemson Tigers Win As Road Favorites?</h3><p>Clemson enters Week 6 with a 3-1 record, ranked 13th in our power rankings. They have a 99.7% chance of being bowl-eligible and a 28.4% chance of winning the Atlantic Coast. Nationally, they hold a 33.6% chance of making the playoff, 11th best in the country.</p> <p></p><p>The Tigers are 3-0 at home and 0-1 on the road this season. They’ve been favored in three of four games, going 3-0 as the favorite. Clemson’s ATS record stands at 3-1, with a perfect 3-0 mark at home and an average scoring margin of +16.2 points per game.</p> <p></p><p>Clemson’s over/under record is 2-2, with their games averaging 67.8 points. Their average over/under line is 50.9 points, and this week’s line is set at 47.5 points.</p><p>Clemson’s offense is ranked 3rd in our offensive power rankings heading into week 6, and they are 13th in scoring, with 42 points per game. Cade Klubnik has thrown for 984 yards, completing 66.4% of his passes, and has 12 touchdowns to 2 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 123.</p> <p>Overall, Clemson is 49th in passing yards per game, averaging 277.8, and they are 67th in rushing, with 179.8 yards per game. Phil Mafah leads the ground game with 342 rushing yards and an impressive 8 yards per carry. Bryant Wesco Jr. has 238 receiving yards and two touchdowns.</p><p>Clemson's defense is giving up 25.8 points per game this season, ranking 40th nationally. They are allowing 218.5 passing yards per game, with opponents completing 56% of their throws and posting a passer rating of 76.6. Against the run, Clemson has struggled, giving up 184.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks 128th in the country.</p><p></p><p>In their recent game against Stanford, Clemson's defense allowed just 14 points but gave up 361 total yards, including 236 rushing yards on 44 attempts. Stanford quarterbacks combined for 125 passing yards, completing 13 of 27 attempts, while Clemson's defense also forced three interceptions.</p><h3>Are The Florida State Seminoles Going Win In At Upset At Doak Campbell Stadium</h3><p>Florida State enters Week 6 against Clemson with a 1-4 record, ranking 63rd in our power rankings. Their chances of becoming bowl-eligible are slim at 5.3%. At home, the Seminoles are 1-2, and they’ve been favored in four of their five games this season.</p><p></p><p>Florida State’s ATS record is 1-4, with an average scoring margin of -9.4 points per game. As the favorite, they are 1-3 against the spread, and they’ve gone 0-2 ATS on the road.</p><p></p><p>Their over/under record this season is 1-4, with an average line of 50.3 points. This week’s total is set at 47.5 points, and the Seminoles’ games have averaged 39.8 points per contest.</p><p>Florida State’s offense has struggled this season, averaging just 15.2 points per game, placing them 92nd in the nation. They are ranked 108th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 6. Their third-down conversion rate is just 29.9%, and they rank 120th in rushing, averaging 72.2 yards per game.</p> <p>DJ Uiagalelei has thrown for 1,065 yards, but he has six interceptions and only four touchdowns, with a passer rating of 67. Florida State is 28th in passing attempts, averaging 32 per game. Leading receiver Ja'Khi Douglas has 285 yards and one touchdown.</p><p>Florida State's defense has struggled this season, allowing 42 points in their recent 42-16 loss to SMU. They gave up 480 total yards, including 226 rushing yards on 47 attempts and 254 passing yards, with three passing touchdowns allowed.</p> <p></p><p>Opponents are averaging 24.6 points per game against Florida State, with 174.4 rushing yards per game, ranking 118th nationally. The defense has faced the 28th fewest pass attempts, allowing 216.2 passing yards per game and a 65.2% completion rate.</p>

Clemson Tigers vs Florida State Seminoles Betting Pick & Prediction 10/5/24

<p>Betting on today's Terriers and Toreros game? Catch the action at Jenny Craig Pavilion in San Diego, CA, as the Toreros hosts this showdown at 10:00 ET on None. This non-conference matchup has an over/under of 144.5 points, and San Diego is favored by -1.5 vs. Boston.</p><h3>BOSTON TERRIERS VS SAN DIEGO TOREROS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: San Diego Toreros -1.5</p><p>This game will be played at Jenny Craig Pavilion at 10:00 ET on Friday, November 8th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE SAN DIEGO TOREROS:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-71 in favor of the Toreros.</li><li>Not only will San Diego pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -1.5.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 144.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 147 points.</li></ul><h3>Does Boston Have What it Takes to Win as Road Underdogs?</h3><h3>Boston Terriers Recent Game/Games</h3> 

<p>Boston dropped their season opener to Northeastern on Monday, losing 80-72 at home. The Terriers entered the game as 3-point favorites but failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game reached 152, surpassing the pre-game O/U line of 137.5.</p> 

<p>Boston led 39-38 at halftime but struggled defensively in the 2nd half, allowing 42 points while scoring only 33. Improving their defense will be key as they look to bounce back in their next game.</p><p>Boston's offense put up 72 points in their last game, shooting 46.8% from the field and 42.9% from beyond the arc. Their effective field goal percentage was 54.8%, and they grabbed 14 offensive rebounds, dishing out 16 assists as a team.</p> <p>LA Pratt led the way with 24 points, hitting 4 of 8 from three and shooting 69.2% overall. Harold Woods and Malcolm Chimezie were both efficient, shooting 75%, while William Kermoury connected on 85.7% of his shots, including 2 of 3 from deep.</p><p>Boston's defense struggled in their last game, giving up 80 points on 46% shooting. They allowed 29 field goals on 62 attempts.</p> <p>From beyond the arc, the opposing team hit 9 of 21 threes, shooting 42%. Boston also sent them to the line 11 times, where they made 5 free throws.</p><h3>Can the Toreros Grab a Win at Home?</h3><h3>San Diego Toreros Recent Game/Games</h3> 

<p>The Toreros dropped a close one at home, losing 68-67 to Rider on Wednesday. San Diego, favored by 3.5 points, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread.</p> 

<p>San Diego led 35-32 at halftime but were outscored 36-32 in the second half. The total points for the game were 135, falling short of the 148-point O/U line.</p><p>San Diego's offense put up 67 points in their last game, shooting 39.7% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc. Their effective field goal percentage was 44.4%, and they hit 64.7% of their free throws.</p> <p>Kjay Bradley Jr. led the way with 24 points on 57.9% shooting, while T.J. Weeks Jr. added 19 points, hitting 3 of 9 from deep. The Toreros grabbed 14 offensive rebounds and dished out 12 assists in the game.</p><p>San Diego's defense held their opponent to 68 points on 39% shooting from the field. They allowed 25 made field goals on 63 attempts.</p> <p>From three-point range, the Toreros gave up 6 threes on 18 attempts, a 33% shooting performance. Their opponent also went 11/17 from the free-throw line, shooting 64%.</p>

Boston Terriers vs San Diego Toreros NCAA Basketball Betting Pick & Prediction 11/8/24

<p>Don't miss out on the NCAA showdown between the Dukes and Red Wolves. The game is starting at 8:00 ET on ESPN+, and it's hosted by the Red Wolves at First National Bank Arena in Jonesboro, AR. Get ready to place your bets! James Madison is favored by -4.5 in this Sun Belt conference contest against Arkansas State. The game's over/under currently sits at 160 points.</p><h3>JAMES MADISON DUKES VS ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Arkansas State Red Wolves +4.5</p><p>This game will be played at First National Bank Arena at 8:00 ET on Wednesday, February 7th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 73-71 in favor of the Red Wolves.</li><li>Not only will Arkansas State pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +4.5.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 160 points, and we like the under with a projected 144 points.</li></ul><h3>Will the Dukes Come Through as Road Favorites?</h3><p>The James Madison Dukes head into this game as 4.5-point favorites. So far this season, they have been favored in 19 of their 23 games, going 17-2 in those matchups. Their average scoring margin on the road is +8.9 compared to +19.3 at home, and they have gone 9-2 on the road.</p>

<p>In their last game, James Madison took down Old Dominion by a score of 78-63. Over their last 10 road games, the Dukes have gone 8-2, and their record on the season is 20-3. They have won two straight games and are 9-3 in Sun Belt Conference play.</p><p>James Madison has been a solid bet this season with a 14-8 ATS mark. They have been even better vs. the spread when favored, going 12-7. On the road, the Dukes are 8-3 ATS this year and have gone 7-3 in their last 10 road games vs. the spread.</p><p>This season, the over/under record for James Madison games is 10-11-1 and today's line of 160 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (153.3). Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 and the average scoring total in those games is 156 points.</p><p>Coming off their recent game, the James Madison offense tallied 78 points in a matchup against Old Dominion. Their field goal percentage for the game was 48.2%, and they made 7 threes. The team's scoring leader is Terrence Edwards, who holds an average of 16.8 as they head into today's matchup. Additionally, T.J Bickerstaff is averaging 13.9 points per game this season.</p><p>At present, the Dukes' defense is nationally ranked 96th, allowing 69.0 points per game. James Madison's defense is coming off a game in which they allowed the Old Dominion offense to knock down 48% of their shots on their way to putting up 63 points.</p><h3>Will Arkansas State Pull Through as the Underdog Home Team?</h3><p>Arkansas State will enter tonight's game as a 4.5-point underdog, and they have gone 2-8 in games as the underdog this season. The Red Wolves are 7-2 at home this season, and they have won their last two games.</p>

<p>Over their last 10 home games, Arkansas State has gone 8-2, and they are coming off a 95-80 win over Louisiana-Monroe. Through 23 games, the Red Wolves have gone 10-13, and they are 7-5 in Sun Belt Conference games.</p><p>Arkansas State has an ATS record of 13-10-1 this season, including a mark of 6-3 at home. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Red Wolves have gone 5-4-1 vs. the spread.</p><p>This season, the over/under record for Arkansas State games is 12-11-1. The average over/under line in their games is 153 and the average scoring total is 157.3. Today's over/under line of 160 is higher than the average line in their games this year. Over their last three games, the OU record is 2-0-1 and the average scoring total is 163.</p><p>In their recent matchup, the Arkansas State offense ended with 95 points against Louisiana-Monroe. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 60% and made 12 threes. Leading Arkansas State in scoring vs. Louisiana-Monroe was Caleb Fields with his 22 points. Izaiyah Nelson also added 16 points for the Red Wolves.</p><p>The Red Wolves' defense is presently ranked 293rd nationally, allowing an average of 78.6 points per contest. The Arkansas State defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 80 points and allowed Louisiana-Monroe to connect on 12 threes.</p>

James Madison Dukes vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Pick & Prediction 2/7/24

The world of sports betting requires handicappers to constantly adapt and evaluate. Things that worked 10 years ago don’t work as well today. Things that worked five years ago don’t work as well today. There are some concepts and philosophies that will always work, but have also been accounted for by the oddsmakers and by other bettors that probably get to the market faster.

Fortunately, we live in an era when there is a lot of new data and people are coming up with new ways of breaking down the games and the players that play them. It creates so many opportunities for fans and bettors to look through different lenses in order to see things with a unique perspective.

When it comes to baseball, specifically, that perspective for me comes in the form of sabermetrics. Over a decade ago, I wanted to know how my favorite team, the Cleveland Indians, makes decisions and values players. So, I researched. And I studied. I won’t say that I was early to the party, but I certainly didn’t arrive all that late. It is something that has been a huge part of my fandom and my handicapping ever since.

There continues to be a pretty sharp divide between old school and new school when it comes to player evaluation. A lot of fans cling to stats like batting average and RBI, while others proselytize about wRC+ and wOBA. While I certainly believe in the advanced metrics far more than the traditional ones, I hate the holier-than-thou attitude some in the stats community have. The best way to induce change and induce a new way of thinking is to reach common ground. I feel like that is part of my skill set when it comes to talking about baseball and I’ll try to do that today with some of the stats that I will reference heavily in my MLB season win totals.

First, we’ll start with some team-oriented metrics:

<strong>Pythagorean Win-Loss – </strong>Most people don’t care about what <em>should</em> have happened. They only care about what actually happened. Pythagorean Win-Loss records can be a good barometer for teams in line for regression. It is a standings metric based on run differential. Teams that excelled in one-run games may regress the following season. Similarly, teams that got blown out a lot should have better personnel the next year.

As an aside, one-run games are a big deal when it comes to Pyth W-L. Generally, teams are within a couple of games above or below .500 in one-run games. Significant outliers are likely to regress the following season.

<strong>BaseRuns – </strong>I like to refer to the BaseRuns standings from Fangraphs as well. BaseRuns takes all of a team’s outcomes for and against and removes the context. Think of it like this: If a team goes HR, 1B, 1B, K, K, K, that team scores one run that innings. If a team goes 1B, 1B, HR, K, K, K, that team scores three runs that inning. The same six individual outcomes produced two very different outcomes overall. BaseRuns eliminates that element of randomness and spits out a measure of runs per game and runs allowed per game given all of the individual outcomes. Then, it produces a win-loss record.

<strong>3rd Order Win% - </strong>An alternate standings metric at Baseball Prospectus that looks at a team's strength of schedule and "underlying statistics" to come up with a win percentage based on the team's performance.

Now, some individual stats for hitters and pitchers:

<strong>wOBA – </strong>wOBA is my favorite statistic of all. It stands for Weighted On-Base Average. Unlike its predecessor, on-base percentage, wOBA assigns a weighted value to each way of reaching base. When it comes to on-base percentage, there is no distinction between a single or a home run. wOBA has changed that. The weights of the outcomes are assigned based on the offensive climate around Major League Baseball. For example, the weight of a home run was 1.98 runs, the lowest mark since 2007. Walks, however, were the highest since 2011 at .693 runs.

Quite simply, wOBA actually distinguishes between the value of ways of getting on base, thus making it better than most every other offensive metric.

<strong>wRC+</strong> - Weighted Runs Created Plus is another popular statistic. The + simply means relative to league average, wherein league average is 100. A player with a 110 wRC+ was 10 percent better than league average when adjustments are made for park factors and the current run environment. Now that we’re in the Juiced Ball Era, or so they say, the run environment is higher, so the baseline is higher. Not that it’s relevant to my win totals or overall handicapping, but you can use wRC+ to compare hitters from previous eras because the stat is adjusted for park factors, leagues, and run environments.

<strong>K% &amp; BB% - </strong>These seem pretty obvious, but are worth mentioning. These are (Strikeouts / Plate Appearances) and (Walks / Plate Appearances). Those are important stats for hitters, but I will use them more frequently with pitchers.

<strong>BABIP – </strong>BABIP stands for Batting Average on Balls in Play. Keep in mind that traditional batting average factors strikeouts into the equation because those are at bats. BABIP is a good measure of luck. Hitters with a high BABIP are either making terrific contact, are fast, or are getting lucky. Hitters with a low BABIP either have poor contact quality or are getting unlucky. The same can be said about pitchers in terms of contact quality and luck. Home runs are NOT factored into BABIP because they are not balls in play. Traditionally, the “average” range for BABIP is between .290 and .310, but extreme fly ball pitchers and hitters need to be graded accordingly. Last year, the league average BABIP for hitters was exactly .300.

<strong>FIP – </strong>I hate ERA. It is such a tremendously flawed statistic. Let’s remember that a pitcher that allows three runs over six innings has a 4.50 ERA, which is widely considered to be bad, but it is a “quality start”. FIP is a better metric and one that I use often. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. It is a run metric derived from things that a pitcher can “control” – strikeouts, walks, home runs, and hit by pitches.

It takes the defense out of the equation. Bad defenders can really hurt a pitcher’s ERA by not catching balls that should be caught. FIP takes that element out of the equation. Once the ball leaves the pitcher’s hand, he has no control over what happens. It is all subject to variance, especially once it is put in play. This is a far better way to assess a pitcher’s performance.

<strong>xFIP – </strong>A derivative of FIP is xFIP, which stands for eXpected Fielding Independent Pitching. The difference between FIP and xFIP is that it recalculates the home run portion of FIP by assuming a league average home run to fly ball rate. Last season, obviously, we had a significant number of home runs hit. The HR/FB% league-wide rose from 12.8 percent to 13.7 percent. It was just 11.4 percent in 2015. The relevance of that will become clearer as we move forward.

The important takeaway here is that we can use xFIP in a similar context to BABIP. Sometimes pitchers are getting unlucky with fly balls that hit a jet stream or just keep carrying. Other times, they are simply making bad pitches. Like any statistic, we have to dig deeper to find out the root cause, but xFIP is a good predictor of future performance. It eliminates some of the noise of small sample sizes.

Pitchers with high ERAs that have lower FIP and xFIP marks are generally pitchers to circle for positive regression. Pitchers with low ERAs that have higher FIP and xFIP marks are likely to regress negatively. There are always outliers, and I’ll discuss them in the season previews and on a day-to-day basis, but keep that in mind.

<strong>SIERA - </strong>SIERA stands for Skill Interactive Earned Run Average. This is how we get a little bit deeper. If you find FIP to be too oversimplified because it doesn’t take into account whether a pitcher is more of a ground ball guy or a fly ball guy, this is for you. Think about it. Ground ball pitchers will have a higher HR/FB% because they have a smaller sample of fly balls. Fly ball pitchers will generally allow more home runs, but they also allow more fly balls, which will cut into the HR/FB%. Pitchers that allow a lot of line drives are going to give up more hits. Hard contact is a bad thing, no matter how good the defense is. SIERA is probably the best ERA estimator we have, though there are some very good ones at Baseball Prospectus.

The big thing about these stats is that they carry predictive value. That’s what we’re looking for. We’re not looking for what happened in the past. We’re looking for what will happen in the future.

<strong>DRS – </strong>DRS stands for Defensive Runs Saved. One of the last great frontiers to explore for baseball stat geeks like me is defense. Errors are a poor stat. They only count if the fielder gets to the ball and are based on subjective discretion by the official scorer. Because fielding percentage uses errors, it is also a poor measure of defensive ability.

DRS is somewhat complex. Players are graded on a plus/minus scale, where zero is average. It is measured on location of a batted ball, type of batted ball, and a general description of the speed of the ball. All of these plays are catalogued and a baseline is set. If a ball has a 70 percent catch probability and the fielder fails to make the play, that accounts for -0.7 defensive runs saved. If that play is made, the fielder gets +0.3 defensive runs saved.

Now that we have Statcast data, we’re getting a much clearer picture of defensive metrics based on Catch Probability, Sprint Speed, and a variety of other metrics. Fans and writers have merely the tip of the iceberg when it comes to Statcast data, but it is very important.

Statcast is remarkable. Those that really want to go down a rabbit hole of baseball statistics are going to fall in love with the data. It is something that I have studied a lot and can be found at BaseballSavant.com.

Here are some of the Statcast metrics I’ll be using:

<strong>Exit Velocity –</strong>We think of pitchers with high BABIPs as “unlucky”. We think of pitchers with high ERAs and low FIP and xFIP marks as “unlucky”. Well, now that we have exit velocities to factor in, we can see if pitchers are simply getting hit really hard. Balls that are hit harder are more likely to go for doubles, triples, and home runs and are also likely to be tougher plays for fielders to make.

I often refer to the "percentile" that the player fell into with regards to Exit Velocity or Hard Hit%. A 97th percentile Hard Hit% means that the player ranked in the top 3% in Hard Hit%, which is percentage of batted balls with an exit velocity of 95+ mph.

<strong>xwOBA – wOBA – </strong>Statcast does its calculations based on batted ball distance, launch angle, and exit velocity. Using that data, it can estimate hit probabilities, including whether or not balls should be home runs, doubles, singles, etc. xwOBA stands for eXpected wOBA. xwOBA – wOBA is a good indication of pitcher luck. This is a stat I will be utilizing a lot more this season. It is a measure of the gap between a pitcher’s expected wOBA and actual wOBA against. It can work for hitters as well and will be something I utilize in my DFS pieces.

<strong>xBA – BA – </strong>This is a similar stat. This is eXpected Batting Average minus actual batting average. Pretty simple and straightforward.

<strong>Barrels &amp; Barrel% &amp; Barrels/PA% - </strong>Barreled balls are a recent development at Statcast to suggest batted balls with a very high likelihood of positive outcomes. A "barreled ball" as defined by Statcast using primarily launch angle and exit velocity is a ball with a xBA of .500 and a xSLG of 1.500. More often than not, those would be doubles, triples, or home runs.

Pitchers that allow a lot of barrels or a high Barrel% have bad command. Hitters that have a lot of barrels or a high Barrel% would grade well in exit velocity, launch angle, and contact quality as a whole.

As far as my MLB analysis goes, these will be the most popular terms and statistics, so I certainly encourage readers to familiarize themselves with these concepts. I will also use additional PITCHf/x and Statcast data.

I would encourage readers to check out more detailed definitions at FanGraphs with the <strong><a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/offensive-statistics-list/">Offensive Stats</a></strong> and the <strong><a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/complete-list-pitching/">Pitching Stats</a></strong>.

Important Statistics to Know for Handicapping Baseball

<p>The Knights and Fighting Illini are set to face off at 9:00 ET on BTN. The Fighting Illini will host the game at State Farm Center in Champaign, IL. This non-conference matchup has an over/under of 161.5 points, and the Fighting Illini are favored to win at home vs. the Knights.</p><h3>FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON KNIGHTS VS ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Fairleigh Dickinson Knights +25.5</p><p>This game will be played at State Farm Center at 9:00 ET on Friday, December 29th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON KNIGHTS:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-67 in favor of the Fighting Illini.</li><li>Even though we have Illinois winning straight-up, we like Fairleigh Dickinson at +25.5.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 161.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 143 points.</li></ul><h3>Is an Upset Waiting to Happen on the Road?</h3><p>As they prepare for their 14th game of the season, Fairleigh Dickinson currently holds a 6-7 overall record. In their last ten road games, which includes games from last year, they have a 4-6 record. Fairleigh Dickinson has been solid vs. the spread thus far, sitting above .500 with a 5-4 ATS record. Over their last five games, the team has gone 2-3 vs. the spread.</p><p>Looking at their over/under performance through 13 games, Fairleigh Dickinson has an over/under record of 5-4-0, with their games averaging 158 points per game on average. The Knights' have recorded an over/under record of 2-1 in their last three games, with their games averaging 159 points per game.</p><p>The Fairleigh Dickinson offense is coming off a game where they scored 76 points against Manhattan. They posted a field goal percentage of 41.8% and connected on 5 threes. One area that the Fairleigh Dickinson offense has been good this season is getting to the line. Currently, they are 47th in free-throw attempts per contest. Overall, they have a field goal percentage of 44%.</p><p>Coming into the game, Fairleigh Dickinson will be looking to improve their defense, as they are currently giving up 81.8 points per game (270th). Against Manhattan in their most recent game, the Fairleigh Dickinson defense gave up a total of 71 points while allowing Manhattan to hit 38% of their shots.</p><h3>Can the Illinois Offense Score Enough at Home?</h3><p>Illinois currently holds a 9-2 overall record after playing 11 games. In their three road games this season, Illinois is 2-1 while at home they are 5-1. Against the spread, Illinois has a record of 4-4-1 this season. On the road, the Fighting Illini are 2-0-1 vs. the spread, while at home they are 2-4.</p><p>Illinois comes in with an over/under record of 4-5-0 through 11 games, with their games averaging a combined 143.1 points per game so far. When looking at the Fighting Illini's last three games, their over/under record is 2-1, with their games averaging 155 points per game.</p><p>The Illinois offense is coming off a game where they scored 97 points against Missouri. They posted a field goal percentage of 49.2% and connected on 11 threes. Leading Illinois in scoring vs. Missouri was Terrence Shannon Jr. with his 30 points. Quincy Guerrier also added 28 points for the Fighting Illini.</p><p>In the current season, the Illinois defense has excelled, sitting 22nd in the nation by allowing 61.8 points per game. So far, the Illinois defense is giving up an average of 8.2 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 12.1 times per game (509th).</p>

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights vs Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Pick & Prediction 12/29/23