Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Pick & Prediction 5/12/24

Game four of this Western Conference first-round matchup between the Nuggets and Timberwolves is set for 8:00 PM ET at the Target Center in Minneapolis. The Timberwolves are up 2-1 in the series and are favored by 2.5 points at home. The over/under line is sitting at 204.5 points, and Minnesota is -144 on the money line compared to the Nuggets at +121. TNT is carrying Sunday night’s game on TV.

DENVER NUGGETS VS MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Denver Nuggets +2.5

This game will be played at Target Center at 8:00 ET on Sunday, May 12th.

WHY BET THE DENVER NUGGETS:

• We have this one finishing with a projected score of 113-112 in favor of the Timberwolves.
• Our projections have Anthony Edwards finishing with Anthony Edwards points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists.
• From the field, we have the Timberwolves finishing with a field goal percentage of 48.4% and knocking down 14 threes.

Denver got the best of Minnesota in the most recent game of this series, winning by a score of 117-90. The Nuggets were 3.5-point underdogs heading into the game and easily covered the spread. The over/under line for the game was 205 points, and the 207 combined points meant that the over hit.

The Nuggets defense was great in this game, holding the Timberwolves to just 90 points. Minnesota shot just 43.7% from the field and made only 10 threes. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray each had 24 points for the Nuggets. Jokic also grabbed 14 rebounds and dished out nine assists.

Do the Nuggets Stand a Chance in Minneapolis?

The Nuggets have an O/U record of 36-52-2 this season, and their games have averaged 223.1 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 204.5 is lower than all of their previous games.

In Denver’s last game against the Timberwolves, they won 117-90 as 3.5-point underdogs. The combined scoring in that game was 207 points, and the O/U line was 205.

As the underdog, the Nuggets have gone 6-6 straight up and 7-5 ATS. They have covered the spread in four straight games as the underdog.

On the road, the Nuggets have an average scoring differential of +1.2 points per game. Their straight-up road record is 26-18, and they are 19-24 ATS on the road.

Overall, the Nuggets are 57-25 this season, which is 2nd in the Western Conference. Against the West, they are 33-19 compared to 24-6 against non-conference opponents.

For the season, the Nuggets are 41-47 ATS, and they have covered the spread in four straight games as the underdog. Today, they are getting 2.5 points on the spread.

Denver comes into the game as the NBA’s 15th ranked scoring offense, at 114.9 points per game. They have been a little better at home, averaging 116.5 points per contest. The team’s field goal percentage of 49% is the 4th best mark in the league. Despite their good shooting, the Nuggets are near the bottom of the league in both free throw attempts and makes.

Nikola Jokic has averaged 26 points, 14.4 rebounds and 9.8 assists in his last five games. Over his last five, Michael Porter Jr. has hit 48.6% of his threes and averaged 20.6 points. Jamal Murray is averaging 20.6 points per game for the season but just 40.4% shooting in his last five games and is questionable with a calf injury.

When it comes to defense, the Denver Nuggets have been one of the best units in the league this season. They come into tonight’s game against the Timberwolves ranked 6th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 109.1. Over their last five games, they have been even better, giving up just 105.4 points per contest, which is 9th in the league during that span.

One thing that has been a strength for the Nuggets’ defense all season long is their ability to defend the three-point line. On the year, they are 2nd in the NBA in three-point percentage allowed at 35.1%. Over their last five games, they have been even better, holding opponents to just 34% shooting from deep.

Overall, opponents have struggled to score against Denver, as they have held opponents below their season average in 80.5% of their games this year. When it comes to made threes, opponents have made fewer than their season average in 76.8% of their games vs. the Nuggets.

Can the Timberwolves Pull Out the Win as Home Favorites?

Today, the Timberwolves are favored by 2.5 points at home against the Nuggets. This season, Minnesota has been favored in 66 of their 82 games and has a record of 49-17 in those games. As the favorite, they have gone 31-34 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +8.4 points per game.

In Western Conference play, the Timberwolves have gone 37-15 compared to 19-11 against non-conference opponents. This record has them in 3rd place in the West, just behind the Nuggets.

Minnesota’s ATS record at home is 20-24, while they are 26-18 on the road. Their straight-up record at home is 32-12, and they have an average scoring margin of +7.9 points per game at home.

The Timberwolves are 46-43 on the over/under this season, and their games have averaged 218.9 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 204.5 is lower than their season average of 220.2.

In their most recent game against the Nuggets, the Timberwolves lost by a score of 117-90. Minnesota was favored by 3.5 points in that game, and the O/U line was 205. The loss dropped the Timberwolves’ ATS record to 46-42 for the season.

Minnesota comes into the game as the 18th ranked scoring team in the league, at 113 points per game. Their production at home is even worse, at 111.5 points per contest, which is 24th in the NBA. Looking at their pace, the Timberwolves are 23rd in the league, averaging 97 possessions per game.

Anthony Edwards is averaging 33 points per game over his last five games, on a shooting percentage of 57%. In these games, he also averaged 5.2 assists. For the season, he is averaging 25.9 points per game. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 21.8 points per game for the season and 21.4 in his last five games. He also averaged 3.2 made threes in his last five games.

When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been the best in the NBA this season, allowing just 106.1 points per game. At home, they have been even better, giving up just 103.6 points per game.

Overall, opponents have scored less than their season average in 79.3% of games vs. Minnesota. In terms of three-point shooting, the Timberwolves are 4th in the NBA in three-point percentage allowed (35.8%).

Over their last five games, Minnesota’s defense has been solid, allowing 104.2 points per game. During that stretch, opponents have made 39.6% of their threes.