The Thunder and Mavericks kick off their second-round series at 9:30 PM ET at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. This Western Conference first-round matchup is being televised on TNT. Heading into game one, the Thunder are the 3.5-point favorites and are -162 on the money line. As for the Mavericks, they are +136, and the over/under line is 218 points.


The Pick: Dallas Mavericks +3.5

This game will be played at Paycom Center at 9:30 ET on Tuesday, May 7th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 118-116 in favor of the Mavericks.
  • Our projections have Luka Doncic finishing with Luka Doncic points, 9 rebounds and 10 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Mavericks finishing with a field goal percentage of 50.0% and knocking down 16 threes.

Kyrie Irving and the Mavericks were able to close out their series against the Clippers with a 114-101 win. This win allowed them to win the series in six games, taking the series 4-2. The Mavericks were able to close out the series on their home floor.

Heading into the game, the over/under line was set at 209 points, and the teams combined for 215 points, hitting the over. Dallas was led by Kyrie Irving's 30 points, and he also added six rebounds and four assists. Luka Doncic also had a big game, finishing with 28 points and 13 assists.

The Thunder are coming off a series-clinching win over the Pelicans, as they won the series 4-0. In the closeout game, they picked up a 97-89 win on the road. The Thunder were able to hold the Pelicans to 89 points, and they also hit 12 threes.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder in scoring with 24 points and also added 10 rebounds. Jalen Williams also scored 24 points and hit two threes. Chet Holmgren added 14 points for the Thunder.

Can Dallas Pull Off a Road Win?

The Mavericks are currently 5th in the Western Conference with a record of 50-32. In the Southwest Division, they are in 1st place. In non-conference games, Dallas is 19-11 compared to 31-21 against the West.

Dallas has won two straight games and is 27-17 on the road this season. Against the spread, they are 29-15 on the road and 36-20 as the favorite. Today, they are 3.5-point underdogs.

On average, the Mavericks' games have finished with 231.7 points, which is higher than today's line of 218. The team's O/U record for the season is 40-48.

In their last game, the Mavericks beat the Clippers by a score of 114-101. The O/U line for that game was 209, and Dallas covered the spread as 8-point favorites.

Luka Doncic is averaging 29.2 points per game over his last five games to go along with 10.2 assists and 8 rebounds. In these games, he hit just 21.8% of his threes and 40.2% of his shots from the field. On average, he is hitting 4.1 threes per game. P.J. Washington is averaging 10.8 points and 5 rebounds in his last five games and 12.9 points and 5.6 rebounds for the year.

For the season, the Mavericks are 3rd in both three-point attempts and three-pointers made. They are averaging 14.6 made threes per game and 39.5 three-point attempts. Overall, they have hit 36% of their threes, which is 15th in the league. Dallas is 5th in scoring on the road this year, at 116.2 points per game.

So far this season, the Dallas Mavericks have been a middle-of-the-pack defensive team, allowing 114.6 points per game, which is 18th in the NBA. Over their last five games, the Mavericks have been even better on the defensive end, giving up just 98.6 points per game, which is 4th in the league during that stretch.

On the season, opponents have scored more than their season average 61% of the time vs. the Mavericks. When it comes to three-point shooting, opposing teams have made more threes than their season average 61% of the time vs. Dallas.

Overall, the Mavericks have been a solid defensive rebounding team, ranking 15th in the NBA in that category. They have also been a middle-of-the-pack shot-blocking team, ranking 15th in blocked shots per game.

Will the Thunder Win at Home?

Today, the Thunder are looking to extend their winning streak to 10 games as they host the Mavericks. Oklahoma City is currently 1st in the Western Conference with a record of 57-25.

In the Western Conference, the Thunder have gone 36-16 against other teams and 21-9 against the East. On the road, they are 26-17 compared to 35-8 at home.

Oklahoma City's ATS record for the season is 50-36, and they have covered the spread in three straight games. At home, their ATS record is 28-15, and they are 22-21 on the road.

As the favorite, the Thunder have gone 51-14 this season and are favored by 3.5 points today. In their last three games, they have also covered the spread as the favorite.

The Thunder's O/U record for the season is 45-40-1, and their last two games have gone under the posted total. This season, their games have averaged a combined 231 points.

In their last game, the Thunder defeated the Pelicans by a score of 97-89. The O/U line for that game was 208.5, and Oklahoma City covered the spread as 4.5-point favorites.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 24.8 points per game over his last five games while hitting 47.4% of his shots from the field. In these games, he also averaged 5.2 assists and 5 rebounds. For the season, he is averaging 30.1 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.5 rebounds. Jalen Williams is averaging 19.1 points and 4.5 assists for the season but has averaged 18.8 points in his last five games on a three-point shooting percentage of 40%.

Overall, the Thunder are averaging 120.1 points per game and 122.5 points per game at home. This is the 3rd best mark in the league. They have also been efficient, hitting 49% of their shots from the field, which is the 2nd best mark in the league. The Thunder are also the top three-point shooting team in the league, connecting on 38% of their attempts from beyond the arc.

On the season, the Thunder are 10th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 111.6. In their last five games, they have been even better, giving up just 88.8 points per contest.

One area where Oklahoma City has been particularly strong is in steals and blocked shots. They lead the league in both categories. They are also 3rd in field goal percentage allowed at 45.3%.

So far this season, opponents have scored less than their season average in 62.2% of games vs. the Thunder. That number is 42.7% when looking at the number of games in which opponents have scored more than their season average.