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This article is intended to give a sense of clarity to those who bet on, or would like to bet on, baseball. Betting on baseball does require a slightly different skill-set than betting with a point spread, but in general there are the same risk/reward consequences. The laws of probability still apply.

When we bet on a football game using a point spread we are typically paying a vigorish, or vig, of 10%. That's the number (-110) that implies a <a href="http://bangthebook.com/sports-betting-odds-how-to-win-and-beat-the-vig/">52.38 win percentage</a>, or the number of bets one needs to win in order to break even.

Since baseball does not have a point spread per se, we are almost exclusively using a <a href="http://bangthebook.com/spread-moneyline-calculator/">money-line</a> when we bet on a team to win.

Of course most games are not the standard -110 that people are more familiar with. When a great team with a great pitcher is playing a weak team with a weak pitcher, the money-line, or price you pay to bet on that team to win, can be as high as -300 (or higher). That means two things. First, you are risking $300 to make $100. Secondly, the win probability jumps to 75%, meaning that to keep your bankroll 100% in tact you must win 75% of those bets.

Conversely, the underdog in that scenario would only have an implied 25% chance of winning, according to the market, which as we know is all driven by money coming in on one side or the other. The upside of betting on the underdog in that scenario is that you would be risking $100 to make $300. That also implies you need only to win 25% of your bets to break even.

But wait, there's more. The bookmakers don't offer you a price of +300.  If the favorite in that scenario is -300, the best price you can generally find on the underdog is +280. Quite often some of the more recreational bookmakers might only offer you +260, which is why you hear over and over that you need to shop around, or "have more outs", to put it into gambling jargon. Bookmakers price things to their advantage, not ours.

Giving away .20 of your bet before you start is a sure way to lose money over a period of time. It's the dictionary definition of "leaving money on the table", and winning is hard enough already. Shopping for the best price is more often than not time better spent than thinking about who you're going to buy, or bet on as this case may me.

Think about it this way, especially if you're familiar with betting on football. If New England is a -3 favorite over Atlanta, the money-line, or cost to bet on the Patriots just to win, regardless of by how many, is -150. That implies a 60% win probability, meaning you've got to win 60% of the time to just break even. It doesn't sound like much more than 52.38%, but it's a staggering difference.

It's all math. If New England is a -6 favorite then betting on the Patriots to simply win the game is going to cost -300, or a $300 risk to win $100. Or, just as in the baseball example, it's an implied win rate of 75%. Of course, taking Atlanta to win the game outright is exactly the same as taking the baseball team to win that's got an implied win rate of 25% - it's only going to cost you $100 to win $280.

That's the simple answer. But, just like football or any other sport with a point spread, that number is fluid and not a static.

The market may open a baseball team at -140, or an implied win rate of 58.3%. As the money comes into the market, that number (cost) moves just as a point spread would. The bookmakers adjust the price based on their exposure, and the number could go either way, and often many times during the betting cycle. Once you've made up your mind as to what team you want to bet on, the onus is on you to find the best price. The onus is on you to anticipate what the market will or won't do.

This chart is an example of a recent betting cycle of a baseball game between Kansas City (the favorite) and the White Sox. Currently, you can buy the White Sox to win at +107, or bet $100 to make $107.

<img class="size-medium wp-image-403450 aligncenter" src="http://bangthebook.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/unnamed-300x80.png" alt="MLB Betting Lines" width="300" height="80" />

That's all well and good, but you could have had them at +124, or have bet $100 to make $124. Over the long haul, that's a lot of money to leave on the table.

Additionally, this chart is just one <a href="http://bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/bookmaker/">bookmaker</a>. As I am writing there are options ranging from +100 at Bovada/Bodog (a very recreational bookmaker) to +107 at <a href="http://bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/5dimes/">5Dimes</a> (another recreational bookmaker) to +105 at Pinnacle Sports, considered by many to be a very sharp, or "professional" bookmaker.

The bottom line to betting money-lines in baseball (or any sport) is that you once you've decided who you're betting on (or against) is to invest your money in the right place at the right time so as to increase the return on your investment, or, decrease the risk, depending on your perspective.

Dave Essler is a professional handicapper at Pregame, featured on ESPN, CNN, &amp; Fox Sports.

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The 2023 NFL Draft is almost here and it’s a venue for betting just as much as betting on NFL football games is. The over-unders are up on the board at <a href="https://www.bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/betanysports/">BetAnySports.eu</a> with a focus on draft positions, props and the numbers of players from college football conferences who are picked in the first round. Let’s look at four over-under props which offer a mixture of value and likelihood.



<figure class="wp-block-image alignright size-full"><a href="https://www.bangthebook.com/s/bas/"><img src="https://www.bangthebook.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/betanysports.png" alt="betanysports" class="wp-image-705892"/></a></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-under-4-5-big-12-players-drafted-in-the-first-round">Under 4.5 Big 12 Players Drafted In The First Round</h2>



Odds at BetAnySports.eu: -210



The Big Ten and SEC are going to get the vast majority of players picked in the first round, which essentially means that in order for this under bet to lose, five Big 12 players will have to be picked in roughly 10 to 12 slots. The Big Ten and SEC will combine for somewhere from 20 to 22 draft picks in the first round, so that doesn’t leave a ton of room for the Big 12 to get five draft prospects called on the first night of the draft. The ACC will probably get at least two, maybe three, players picked. The Pac-12 will have a few. Notre Dame might get one. Other conferences might get one or two. Keep in mind that Oklahoma and Texas were not especially strong this past season. Those two schools are usually the foremost sources of Big 12 first-round NFL draft picks, so the fact that they both had down years in 2022 offers considerable reason to bet the under here. The price might not be fantastic, but it’s not terrible, either, and the likelihood is very strong. The price here should probably be -300, and you’re getting it for -210. That’s not a steal, but it’s better than you probably had a right to expect.



BetAnySports is offering all new users a <a href="https://www.bangthebook.com/s/bas/">30% Cash welcome bonus</a> if you sign up now!



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Under 3.5 ACC Players Drafted In The First Round</h2>



Odds at BetAnySports.eu: +120



Clemson didn’t have a very strong year in 2022, much as Oklahoma was not very good last year. Clemson is usually the foremost source of elite ACC football talent, so with the Tigers not hitting their typical marks, in a way which is very similar to the Big 12 Conference’s most recognizable football brands this past season, betting the under here makes sense. The ACC might get three, but it’s hard to see four. Clemson should get one player picked, maybe two, and Boston College receiver Zay Flowers should go in the first round, but where is everyone else? Maybe Florida State will get a player picked around No. 30, maybe the Pittsburgh Panthers, but at plus money, this is a good risk to take. It might come down to the last two picks of the first round. It’s very unlikely four ACC players will be picked in the first 29 spots.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Devon Witherspoon Draft Position</h2>



Odds at BetAnySports.eu: Under 7.5 at -200



There just isn’t room for Witherspoon in the first seven picks. Which team is going to take him? Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Jalen Carter, Will Anderson, Will Levis, and probably Christian Gonzalez will go in the first seven spots in some order. Quarterbacks and other high-profile players are going to gobble up spots, leaving no real margin for Witherspoon, whose projected spot is much more likely to be No. 8-11 rather than anywhere in the top seven. He won’t go higher than No. 7, so you’re really in good shape in terms of the odds here.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Jaxon Smith-Njigba Draft Position</h2>



Odds at BetAnySports.eu: Over 12.5 at -250



Smith-Njigba is going to be the first receiver off the board. One NFL team is going to fall in love with him and take him in the top 12, probably from No. 8 to No. 12. The value of an elite wide receiver in today’s NFL is huge, given how important it is to pass the ball. Receivers usually do not get shut out of the top 12 in a draft.

2023 NFL Draft: Best Over-Under Prop Bets

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The NHL is giving us a six-game slate on Monday, December 5, including this inter-conference encounter, and here you can get the best Avalanche vs. Flyers betting pick and odds.



Philadelphia is hoping to avoid the third straight defeat when they host Colorado at Wells Fargo Center. The Avalanche are -198 moneyline favorites on <a href="https://www.bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/bookmaker/">BookMaker Sportsbook</a>, while the total is set at 6 goals. These inter-conference rivals have met twice last year, and the Avs won both games.



Avalanche couldn’t snap the Bruins’ fantastic streak in Boston



The Colorado Avalanche (13-8-1-0, 13-9 ATS) were seen as the team who can finally beat the Boston Bruins at TD Garden, but the reigning Stanley Cup champions failed to do so. Boston is still unbeaten at home after an emphatic 5-1 victory over the Avs, so Colorado is now looking to return to winning ways against Philadelphia, in the fourth and final game of the current road trip.



The Avalanche were inferior in Boston and they trailed 3-0 after the opening two periods. Andrew Cogliano cut the deficit to two, but the hosts added a couple of more goals to secure a comfortable W. Boston fully deserved it as it has 40 shots opposite Colorado’s 25. This year, the Avalanche is relying on their three stars from the previous season. Nathan MacKinnon leads the team with 33 points (G 8, A 33), Mikko Rantanen is right behind with 31 (G 14, A 17), while Cale Makar has 23 points (G 6, A 17).



Alexandar Georgiev (11-3-1) is a probable goaltender when the Avalanche takes on the Flyers on Monday. The 26-year-old is allowing 2.58 goals per game this season, along with a .922 SV% and one shutout.



LW Darren Helm (hip), LW Gabriel Landeskog (lower body), and LW Valeri Nichushkin (ankle) are out indefinitely and will not play on Monday against Philadelphia.



Flyers are back to losing



The Philadelphia Flyers (8-12-4-1, 14-11 ATS) did manage to snap a ten-game losing skid with a home win over the New York Islanders, but they returned to losing ways with defeats in the next two against the Tampa Bay Lightning and New Jersey Devils, also at home. Philadelphia will welcome Colorado on Monday and Washington on Wednesday, after which the Flyers will hit on a four-game road trip.



The Flyers had an active 1-1 result after the first two periods, but New Jersey scored two early in the final period, and only the hosts could do is to soften a defeat. Travis Konecny and Lukas Sedlak scored in a 3-2 loss, while goalie Carter Hart registered a season-low 15 saves. Philadelphia was better in shots (33-18), but that wasn’t enough to avoid a defeat. So far this season, Kevin Hayes leads the team in points with 25 (G 8, A 17), while Konecny has 21 (G 9, A 12).



Carter Hart (7-7-4) will get a chance to redeem himself with another start when the Flyers host the Avalanche on Monday. The 24-year-old is surrendering 2.82 goals per contest this year with a .911 SV% and no shutouts.



LW James van Riemsdyk (finger), C Sean Couturier (back), RW Cam Atkinson (upper body), and D Ryan Ellis (back) are out indefinitely and will not feature on Monday against the Avs.



Trends:



Colorado:



<ul><li>16-5 in the last 21 vs. Metropolitan Division rivals</li><li>28-11 in the last 39 after allowing five goals or more in their previous game</li></ul>



Philadelphia:



<ul><li>3-9 in the last 12 vs. Western Conference opponents</li><li>1-6 in the last seven home games</li><li>13-38 in the last 51 after scoring two goals or less in their previous game</li></ul>



Colorado Avalanche vs. Philadelphia Flyers Pick&nbsp;&nbsp;



Colorado’s offense is still not playing at the level they played last year, mostly because of injuries to key players such as Landeskog and Nichushkin, but this current offense should be enough to beat one of the weakest teams in the NHL. Philadelphia is the worst when it comes to goals per game with 2.36, while the Avalanche are allowing 2.77 goals per contest, so it’s going to be extremely hard to score more than two or three against Alexandar Georgiev, who has been excellent this season. He did surrender nine goals in his previous two starts, but Georgiev did face Buffalo and Winnipeg, who have a lot better offenses than Philly’s. I expect an easy victory for the visitors here.



Pick: Take the Avalanche at -1.5 Run Line (+130)



The Total



Although its offense is struggling, Philadelphia’s defense is actually not bad. The Flyers allow 3.24 goals per contest, but Carter Hart did allow at least three in seven of his last eight starts. Colorado will be looking to bounce back from a devastating defeat in Boston, so I expect MacKinnon and co. to score 4+ goals in this one. Over is 4-1 in the Avalanche’s last five after allowing five goals or more in their previous game, while Over is 4-1 in Colorado’s previous five following a loss of three or more goals.



Pick: Go Over 6 goals (-110)

Colorado Avalanche vs. Philadelphia Flyers Odds, Pick, Prediction 12/5/22