Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick & Prediction 7/31/24
At 7:10 PM ET, the Cubs and Reds will face off in an NL Central matchup. This one is being played at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, and the Reds are favored on the money line (-151). The money line odds for a Cubs win are sitting at +128, and the over/under line is at 9.5 runs.
Chicago comes in with a record of 51-58, while the Reds are 52-55. Kyle Hendricks will start for the Cubs, while the Reds are sending Nick Lodolo to the mound. Cincinnati is currently on a two-game winning streak, and they are 4th in the NL Central, while the Cubs are 5th. BSOH is carrying this one on TV.
CINCINNATI REDS VS CHICAGO CUBS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline -151
This game will be played at Great American Ball Park at 7:10 ET on Wednesday, July 31st.
HOW TO BET THE CUBS VS REDS:
- We have the Reds winning by a score of 6 to 5
- However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Cubs to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over
Cincinnati picked up a 6-3 win over the Cubs in the most recent game of this series. The Reds had a huge 2nd inning, scoring five of their six runs. As for the Cubs, they scored their three runs in the 6th. Heading into the game, the Reds were the slight underdogs at +111.
Tony Santillan only went one inning for the Reds but didn’t give up a run or a hit. Nick Martinez got the win out of the bullpen, and Alexis Díaz got the save. Justin Steele had a rough outing for the Cubs, giving up five runs in five innings of work.
Santiago Espinal was the difference for the Reds’ offense, as he went 4/4 with a home run and two RBIs. Tyler Stephenson also had a three-hit game and drove in a run. Cody Bellinger hit a home run for the Cubs, going 2/4.
Cubs Records & Stats
With a record of 51-58, the Cubs are 5th in the NL Central, 11 games behind the Brewers for the division lead. The Cubs have really struggled against other NL Central teams, going 13-25 this year. Chicago has dropped two straight games, and they are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
At home, the Cubs are 27-25 this season, and they are 24-33 on the road. As the road underdog, the Cubs are 18-25 this year, and they have won two straight as the underdog overall. Chicago is just 23-27 when favored this year. The Cubs’ overall series record is 12-18-3, and they have dropped two straight series at home.
Chicago has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 52-57 overall. They have been especially good on the road, going 33-24 against the run line. They have covered the run line in two straight games and have been a good bet as the underdog, going 39-20. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.4, while it is -3.2 in losses.
Chicago Cubs games have gone under the total in two straight contests, and the under has hit in 85.3% of their games this season. The Cubs’ games have averaged 8.3 runs per game, and their over/under record is 45-60. When the over/under line has been set at 9.5 runs, their record is 5-4. The over/under line for today’s game against the Cincinnati Reds is set at 9.5 runs.
Kyle Hendricks gets the start for the Cubs today as he faces the Reds on the road. This year, he has made 14 starts and has a record of 2-9. Hendricks’ ERA is 6.95, and he has pitched much worse on the road, coming in with a 7.91 ERA compared to 6.53 at home. In his last outing, Hendricks gave up six earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had a quality start vs. the Cardinals, going seven innings and not giving up a run. Hendricks has allowed at least two homers in three of his last four starts.
For the Cubs to improve their 26th ranked offense, they will need more production from their top two home run hitters, Ian Happ, and Isaac Paredes, who both have 16 homers this season. However, Happ is batting just .230, and Paredes isn’t far ahead at .243. Paredes does have the 2nd most RBIs on the team, while Happ is the team’s leader in runs batted in.
Seiya Suzuki has been swinging the bat well of late, going 9/30 in his last eight games with two homers. For the season, he is 2nd on the team with 15 homers and is batting .268. Nico Hoerner and Cody Bellinger are both on three-game hitting streaks coming into the game.
Reds Records & Stats
Cincinnati is 52-55 overall this season, putting them 4th in the NL Central. Currently, they are nine games behind the Brewers for the division lead. The Reds are 14-14 in divisional matchups this year. They have won two straight games, and their two wins have come in this series vs. the Cubs.
At home, the Reds are 27-28 this year compared to 25-27 on the road. As the favorite, Cincinnati has gone 26-23 and 26-32 as the underdog. The Reds’ overall series record is 11-19-3 heading into today’s game. Over the past ten games, the Reds are 5-5.
When betting the run line with the Reds, it’s been more profitable to take them on the road, where they are 32-20 against the run line compared to 25-30 at home. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 36-22 against the run line compared to 21-28 as the favorite. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.7, while it’s -2.7 in losses.
The Reds have been one of the best over teams in the league this season, with a combined run average of 8.4 runs per game. Their over/under record is 46-57, and their games have averaged an over/under line of 9 runs per game. When the line has been set at 9.5 runs, the over has hit at a 65.4% clip (17-9). The under has hit in their last five games, and the over/under line for today’s game against the Cubs is set at 9.5 runs.
Cincinnati is sending left-hander Nick Lodolo to the mound today vs. the Cubs. He has made 16 starts this season and has a record of 8-3 with a 3.45 ERA. So far, Lodolo has turned in seven quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t allow a run. In that start vs. the Rays, he went 6 2/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, five hits, and one walk. Lodolo has allowed a homer in three straight outings. The last time he allowed more than one homer was on June 29th vs. the Padres.
Elly De La Cruz has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/25 in his last six games with a home run. For the season, he is batting .262 and is the Reds’ leader in home runs, with 18. His 45 RBIs are also 3rd best in the league. Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario are also near the top of the league in homers, but both are batting under .240 for the season.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, and they have been a little better at home, averaging 4.5 runs per contest. Overall, their team batting average is just .230 (20th) and they are also near the bottom of the league in terms of strikeouts.