Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick & Prediction 7/29/24
Chicago and Cincinnati are set to square off in an NL Central matchup at 7:10 PM ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH. The Reds are 4th in the NL Central with a record of 50-55, while the Cubs are 5th at 51-56.
Jameson Taillon will go for the Cubs, while the Reds are starting Carson Spiers. Chicago is currently on a two-game winning streak, and they are the slight money line favorite today at -109. The over/under line is at 9 runs, and this game can be seen on MARQ.
CINCINNATI REDS VS CHICAGO CUBS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline -109
This game will be played at Great American Ball Park at 7:10 ET on Monday, July 29th.
HOW TO BET THE CUBS VS REDS:
- We have the Reds winning by a score of 6 to 4
- If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Reds to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 10 runs and like the over
Cubs Records & Stats
Heading into their last game vs. the Royals, the Cubs closed out the series with a 7-3 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at +154. Offensively, the Cubs scored their seven runs on jsonly 12 hits and didn’t hit a home run.
Javier Assad put together a good start for the Cubs, going six innings and giving up just three runs on five hits. He only had one strikeout in the outing and got the win.
Chicago is 51-56 overall and 5th in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by 10 games. They are 13-23 against other teams in the NL Central. The Cubs have won two straight games, and they closed out their series vs. the Royals with a win.
At home, the Cubs are 27-25 this season, and they are 24-31 on the road. As the favorite, the Cubs are 23-25 and 28-31 when the underdog. Chicago’s overall series record is 12-18-3 this year.
When betting on the Cubs this season, it’s been more profitable to take them on the run line on the road. They’re 33-22 against the run line away from Wrigley Field. They’ve covered the run line in their last two road games and are 39-20 as underdogs this season. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.4, compared to -3.2 in losing games.
Chicago Cubs games have gone over the over/under line in two straight contests, and they are 45-58 on the season in terms of over/under results. The average over/under line in their games this year has been 8 runs, but today’s line is set at 9 runs. The Cubs’ games have averaged a combined 8.3 runs per game this season, and when the over/under line has been set at 9 runs, their record is 5-7-2. Only 14% of their games this season have had over/under lines set at 9 runs, with the vast majority of their games having lower lines.
Right-hander Jameson Taillon gets the start for the Cubs today as he faces the Reds on the road. He has made 17 starts this year and has a record of 7-5 with a 2.96 ERA. Taillon’s WHIP for the season is 1.15, and he has turned in 10 quality starts. In his last outing, Taillon took the loss, going 7 1/3 innings and giving up one earned run on three hits. Before that, he had won three straight starts. So far, he has been better on the road, with a record of 2-2 and 3.41 ERA compared to 5-3 with a 2.92 ERA at home.
Chicago’s offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, as they are averaging just 4.1 runs per game, which is 24th in the MLB. The Cubs are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and batting average. However, they do have a good walk rate and have been good at avoiding strikeouts. So far, they have been a better offensive team on the road, averaging 4.2 runs per game.
Christopher Morel has been a bright spot for the Cubs this season, as his 18 home runs are 14th in the league and leads the team. However, he is hitting just .199. Ian Happ is batting just .232 but leads the team with 60 RBIs and is 2nd on the team with 16 homers. Over his last four games, Patrick Wisdom has gone 3/8 with two homers.
Reds Records & Stats
The Reds will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Rays with a 2-1 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 8th inning before the Rays scored two runs in the bottom of the 8th. Cincinnati was the -119 favorite on the money line going into the game.
Hunter Greene was excellent for the Reds, going seven innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out five Rays batters. However, the Reds couldn’t close things out, and Fernando Cruz took the loss out of the bullpen. The Reds also wasted a big game from Elly De La Cruz, who went 3/4 with a run scored.
Cincinnati will host the Cubs today with an overall record of 50-55, which has them 4th in the NL Central. The Reds are 10 games behind the Brewers for the division lead, and they are 12-14 in divisional matchups this year. The Cubs are also 10 games behind the Brewers, and they are in 5th place in the division.
The Reds lost the final two games of their series vs. the Rays after winning the opener. So far, they have an overall series record of 11-19-3. At home, the Reds are 25-28 this year and 25-27 on the road. As the underdog, Cincinnati has gone 24-32 compared to a mark of 26-23 as the favorite.
The Reds have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 55-50 overall. They have been even better on the road, going 32-20, compared to 23-30 at home. They have been a better bet as an underdog, going 34-22, compared to 21-28 as a favorite. Their average run margin for the season is +0.3 runs per game, and they have a run differential of +0.6 runs per game on the road.
When the Cincinnati Reds play at home, the over/under line is set at 9 runs. Their games have averaged 8.4 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 46-55. When the line is set at 9 runs, their record is 2-17-3, and they have gone under in three straight games.
Reds starter Carson Spiers has made 10 appearances this season and has a record of 3-2 to go along with an ERA of 3.83. So far, he has turned in two quality starts, and opponents are batting .260 off the right-hander this season. In his last outing, Spiers picked up the win, going five innings and giving up three earned runs on six hits. Before that, he had given up at least one homer in three straight outings. Spiers’ WHIP for the season is 1.25.
Elly De La Cruz has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Reds, going 10/27 in his last seven games with six runs scored and one home run. For the season, he is batting .263 with 18 homers and 45 RBIs. Cincinnati’s top power threat is Spencer Steer, who is 13th in the league with 64 RBIs and has 15 homers.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game and have been one of the better home run hitting teams in the league. However, they are batting just .228 as a team and have the 20th ranked on-base percentage in the league. Cincinnati’s team OPS of .693 is also just 17th in the MLB.