Bowling Green Falcons vs Central Michigan Chippewas Betting Pick & Prediction 11/5/24
ESPN2 will be covering this week 11 college football matchup between the Bowling Green Falcons and Central Michigan Chippewas, set to kick off at 7:30 ET from Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Mount Pleasant. The Falcons are 4-4 on the season and come in as the heavy -14-point favorites over the Chippewas, who are 3-5. The money line odds have Bowling Green at -602 and Central Michigan at +427, with the over/under line currently at 48.5 points.
BOWLING GREEN FALCONS VS CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Central Michigan Chippewas +14
This game will be played at Kelly/Shorts Stadium at 7:30 ET on Tuesday, November 5th.
WHY BET THE CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS:
- We have the Bowling Green Falcons winning this one by a score of 23 to 21
- Even though we like the Bowling Green Falcons to win, our ATS pick is to take the Central Michigan Chippewas at +14
- We see this game finishing below the line of 48.5 points
Will The Bowling Green Falcons Win As Road Favorites?
Bowling Green enters Week 11 with a 4-4 record, facing Central Michigan. They are 1-2 at home and 2-2 on the road this season. The Falcons have a 90% chance of becoming bowl-eligible, and they hold a 22.3% chance of winning the Mid-American, according to projections.
The Falcons have been favored in four games this season, going 2-2 in those matchups. Their average scoring margin is +5.1 points per game, and they are 3-4 against the spread. On the road, they are 3-1 ATS, but they’ve struggled at home with an 0-3 ATS record.
Bowling Green’s over/under record is 3-4, with their games averaging 49.1 points. Their average over/under line is 50.1 points, and this week’s line is set at 48.5 points.
Bowling Green’s offense ranks 59th in points per game, averaging 27.1, and they are 61st in our offensive power rankings heading into week 11. Quarterback Connor Bazelak has thrown for 1,815 yards, completing 68.8% of his passes, and the team ranks 19th in completion percentage. Bazelak has 10 touchdowns and four interceptions, with a passer rating of 99.
Bowling Green is 42nd in passing completions, averaging 20.4 per game, and they are 72nd in passing yards, with 230.4 yards per game. On third downs, they convert 39.4% of their attempts. The run game averages 148.6 yards per game. Terion Stewart leads the rushing attack with 562 yards, five touchdowns, and an average of 5 yards per carry. Malcolm Johnson Jr. has 339 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
Bowling Green’s defense has been solid this season, ranking 26th nationally by allowing just 22 points per game. They’ve given up 181.5 passing yards per game, which ranks 31st, and have held opposing quarterbacks to a 56.7% completion rate.
In their recent game against Toledo, the defense allowed 26 points, giving up 418 total yards, including 251 passing yards and three touchdowns. They also forced one interception in the game.
Are The Central Michigan Chippewas Going Win In At Upset At Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Central Michigan enters Week 11 against Bowling Green with a 3-5 record, ranked 120th in our power rankings. They have just a 5.6% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. At home, the Chippewas are 2-1, while they’ve struggled on the road, going 0-4 this season.
Against the spread, Central Michigan is 2-5, with an average scoring margin of -5.2 points per game. They are 0-3 ATS as the favorite but have gone 2-2 as the underdog.
Their over/under record stands at 5-2, with games averaging 59.2 points. This week’s line is set at 48.5 points, below their average over/under line of 50.1 points.
Central Michigan’s offense ranks 105th in our power rankings heading into week 11, averaging 27 points per game, which places them 60th nationally. Their passing game has struggled, ranking 109th with 189.5 yards per game, and they have converted just 33.6% of their third-down attempts. Joe Labas, their quarterback, has thrown for 1,114 yards with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 76.
Central Michigan’s strength lies in their running game, averaging 184.4 yards per game on 36.5 attempts. Marion Lukes leads the team with 465 rushing yards, four touchdowns, and an average of 4 yards per carry. Evan Boyd, the leading receiver, has 302 yards and two touchdowns on 21 catches.
Central Michigan’s defense struggled in their recent 46-7 loss to Miami (OH), giving up 46 points and 518 total yards. They allowed 277 rushing yards on 39 attempts and 241 passing yards, with two passing touchdowns.
On average, the Chippewas have allowed 32.2 points per game this season. Opponents have averaged 186.8 rushing yards per game and 209.5 passing yards, completing 59.4% of their throws.