Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Prediction 7/2/24

The Red Sox are the heavy favorite heading into Tuesday’s interleague matchup with the Marlins, with their money line odds sitting at -173 compared to the Marlins at +146. This one is getting started at 6:40 PM ET from loanDepot Park in Miami, and the Red Sox are 3rd in the AL East, while the Marlins are 5th in the NL East.

The over/under line for this one is currently 8.5 runs, and BSFL will be televising this one. Kutter Crawford is starting for the Red Sox, and the Marlins are going with Valente Bellozo.

MIAMI MARLINS VS BOSTON RED SOX BETTING PICK

The Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline +146

This game will be played at loanDepot Park at 6:40 ET on Tuesday, July 2nd.

HOW TO BET THE RED SOX VS MARLINS:

• We have the Marlins winning by a score of 6 to 5
• If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Marlins to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over

Red Sox Records & Stats

Rafael Devers had a big game for the Red Sox in their most recent win over the Padres, going 2/4 with a homer and two RBIs. The Red Sox really got things going with a two-run 1st inning and added another two runs in the 3rd to take the lead. Boston was the slight favorite at -112 at home going into the game.

Josh Winckowski started for the Red Sox, going five innings and not giving up a run. He only had one strikeout in the outing and got the win.

Boston is 44-39 overall and trails the Orioles by 8.5 games in the AL East. The Red Sox are 3rd in the division and have gone 11-10 in other games against other AL East teams. They kick off their series vs. the Marlins on the road today.

At home, the Red Sox are 20-23 this year and have gone 24-16 on the road. As the road favorite, the Red Sox have gone 10-3 this year, and they are 23-18 as the favorite overall. Boston lost two of three in their most recent series vs. the Padres.

When the Red Sox win, they win big, averaging a 4.2 run margin in those games. They’re not as successful against the run line, however, going 38-45 overall. They’ve been much better on the road, going 23-17 against the run line, compared to just 15-28 at home. As the underdog, they’re 25-17 vs. the run line, but as the favorite, they’re just 13-28.

The Boston Red Sox are on the road today against the Miami Marlins, with the over/under line set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average in Red Sox games this season is 8.8 runs, and their over/under record is 39-39. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, their record is 15-11. Overall, 24 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, accounting for 28.9% of their games.

Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Reds, as he gave up three earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work. In that outing, he gave up two homers. Before that, he had pitched well, going 6 innings and giving up three earned runs vs. the Yankees. Crawford’s record for the season is 3-7, and he has an ERA of 3.59. Looking at his home/road splits, Crawford has an ERA of 2.83 on the road compared to 4.34 at home. Per nine innings, he is averaging 9.23 strikeouts and 2.72 walks.

Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox offense is averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 12th in the league. They have been even better on the road, putting up 5 runs per contest. As a team, the Red Sox are batting .252, which is 7th in the league, and are also near the top of the league in on-base percentage and slugging. One of the reasons for their strong offensive numbers is that they have the 2nd best BABIP in the league.

Over his last 10 games, Jarren Duran has gone 16/44 with four homers and eight RBIs. For the season, he is batting .288 and is 3rd on the team with nine homers. Rafael Devers is leading the Red Sox with 45 RBIs and is 1st on the team with 18 homers. Devers has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 12/39 in his last 10 games.

Marlins Records & Stats

The Marlins will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Phillies with a 7-6 loss. Miami was the +216 underdog on the money line going into this road game. Things started off well for the Marlins, as they got on the board with a run in the 1st inning but gave up the lead right away as the Phillies scored twice in the bottom of the first.

Miami started Yonny Chirinos, and he took the loss, going 4 1/3 innings and giving up three earned runs on nine hits. The Marlins’s offense scored six runs on 11 hits but only had one home run. Bryan De La Cruz was 2/5 with a homer and two RBIs.

Miami is 30-54 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East, 25 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have gone just 7-19 in divisional games. The Marlins are at home today, where they are 16-27 this year. They have gone 14-27 on the road.

The Marlins have struggled as the favorite this year, going just 3-12 in those games. As the underdog, they are 27-42. Miami’s overall series record is 7-18-2, and they split their most recent series 2-2 vs. the Phillies. Heading into today’s game, they are 5-5 over their last 10.

The Marlins have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 37-47 overall. They are 21-20 on the run line on the road, but just 16-27 at home. Miami has been a good run line bet as the underdog, going 36-33. They have covered the run line in two straight games as the underdog.

When the Miami Marlins play at home, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, which is their combined run average for the season. Their over/under record this season is 43-40, and their average over/under line is set at 8 runs. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 15-14. In 15.5% of their games, the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, and in 50% of their games, the line has been set below 8.5 runs.

Valente Bellozo will be making his second start of the season for the Marlins, and he will be taking on the Red Sox at home. In his first start, Bellozo went 5 innings and struck out 2, while not allowing a run in a no-decision against the Royals.

So far this season, the Marlins offense is averaging just 3.5 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3 runs per contest. As a team, the Marlins are batting just .231 and have the league’s worst isolated power mark. Their team on-base percentage of .280 is also the worst in the league.

Bryan De La Cruz is the Marlins’ top home run hitter this season, but he is coming off a stretch in which he has gone just 9/41 at the plate. For the season, he is batting .242 and has 40 RBIs. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has also been a good run producer, with 39 RBIs and 10 homers, which is 2nd on the team.