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Life as a premier Group of Five program is really something. The talent pipeline and the attractiveness of the job for up-and-coming coordinators keep these teams at the top of their respective conferences. On the other hand, it also means replacing head coaches on the regular.

Eli Drinkwitz made it one season at Appalachian State before the NC State offensive coordinator turned head coach was hired by Missouri. That means interim head coach Shawn Clark has to gather together with his staff to prep the Mountaineers for the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl against UAB. Clark, the offensive line coach that was hired by Scott Satterfield, who is now at Louisville, will face another Clark in Bill Clark, who has done great things with the UAB program.

Appalachian State, despite the loss of Drinkwitz, is a big favorite of anywhere from 16 to 17 points in this one. We did see a bit of a ripple effect to Drinkwitz’s departure in the line, as this game was as high as 17.5 before Missouri poached App State’s sideline sultan. Drinkwitz is also taking App State’s special teams coordinator Erik Link with him so that could be, ahem, a weak link for the Mountaineers in the bowl game. The total on the game is 48.

None of these types of distractions impact UAB for this one. They just aren’t viewed as a very good team for a conference championship game competitor. Bill Clark has done a magnificent job navigating the program through tumultuous times. Remember, UAB didn’t even have football in 2015 and 2016. Clark took over for Garrick McGee for the 2014 season and then the Blazers stopped football operations. Clark stayed and rebuilt the program after some funding came through and UAB is 28-12 on his watch.

The reasons to dislike UAB in this game are obvious. The offense was terrible and the Blazers played one of the worst schedules in the country. Jeff Sagarin’s strength of schedule rankings, which include FCS schools, have UAB with the 136th-ranked schedule. For those that don’t know, there are 130 FBS teams.

Playing the #136 schedule has its advantages. UAB finished the regular season eighth in yards per play allowed with 4.59. In fairness, UAB did hold Tennessee to 4.58 YPP in their only game against a Power Five team, but the Volunteers were still an offensive mess at that point in the season. Appalachian State is pretty damn close to a Power Five team, all things considered. The Mountaineers do play in a weak Sun Belt, but they beat North Carolina and South Carolina and wound up 32nd in YPP against the 108th-ranked schedule. It really wasn’t App State’s fault that UNC barely made a bowl and South Carolina did not against one of the toughest schedules in the country.

UAB did not take full advantage of that weak schedule on offense, as the Blazers wound up tied for 87th with 5.53 yards per play. The status of QB Tyler Johnston III is important here. He was banged up most of the season and struggled with 14 INT to go along with 15 TD passes. Johnson threw one pass against North Texas, went 4-of-11 in the C-USA Championship Game, and didn’t look the part against Tennessee or Old Dominion. He missed a good chunk of November.

UAB’s offense isn’t good anyway, but Johnston is a better option than Dylan Hopkins. Star running back Spencer Brown, who rushed for 1,329 yards in 2017 and 1,227 yards in 2018, also spent a lot of time in the trainer’s room this season. If those guys are healthier for the bowl game, UAB will have more of a chance to be competitive.

Personally, one of my favorite things about Appalachian State is that the team is always solid without stunning numbers. Quarterback Zac Thomas has a 63.3% completion rate with a 26/6 TD/INT ratio. Darrynton Evans has a gaudy rushing total with 1,323 yards, but it’s not like he has ripped off 7.5 yards per carry. He and Marcus Williams Jr. both have 5.6 yards per carry. The top three wide receivers, Thomas Hennigan, Corey Xavier Sutton, and Malik Williams, all have comparable and quality numbers. This is just a team with very few flaws year in and year out no matter the coach.

UAB pressures the QB well, as they had 43 sacks over their 13 games. Again, the strength of schedule puts a dent into all of their numbers, but this might just be a quality defense. Appalachian State only allowed 17 sacks. If UAB can’t pressure the QB, does that defense get exposed?

Appalachian State also heads into this one 12th in the country in turnover margin at +12 with 21 takeaways and only nine giveaways. Say what you will about UAB’s defense because of the teams that they played, but remember that this UAB offense turned it over 25 times and this team is -5 in TO margin. Only Central Michigan, New Mexico, Akron, New Mexico State, Duke, and Hawaii turned it over more. All things considered, give UAB’s defense credit for that.

This is a bit of a tricky handicap. For starters, App State is back in this bowl for a second year. The Mountaineers waxed Middle Tennessee 45-13 for interim head coach Mark Ivey. How motivated will App State be back in this bowl game for the second year in a row against an inferior Conference USA team? On the other hand, App State has scored at least 31 points in each of its four bowl games, so they generally come in prepared.

Ultimately, I don’t see how UAB keeps pace. Maybe the UAB defense can do that, but App State is the best team UAB will play this season. App State takes care of the football and can capitalize on those UAB turnovers. This is one of the highest bowl game lines in history, but it is deserved. I’ll split the difference of 16 and 17 for the official pick, but shop around for the best line you can.

<strong>Pick: App State -16.5</strong>

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Odds, Pick, & Prediction: UAB vs. Appalachian State

When the Boston College Eagles take the field for the Ticketsmarter Birmingham Bowl, it will have been 33 days since they last played. The layoff is week shorter than that for the Cincinnati Bearcats, but these post-New Year’s Day bowl games feel like an eternity away for these teams.

Cincinnati is a clear favorite of a touchdown in this one with a total of 55.5.

Boston College is one of the more mysterious teams when it comes to the bowl season. They won the finale against Pitt to be bowl-eligible, even though it had already been announced that head coach Steve Addazio wouldn’t be back. Wide receivers coach Rich Gunnell will coach the bowl game. Ohio State co-defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has been hired as the program’s next head coach, but he stayed on with Ohio State to prep for the Fiesta Bowl. If the Buckeyes beat Clemson, Hafley will be away from BC for more than two additional weeks in advance of the National Championship Game.

To make matters worse, BC’s unquestioned best offensive player, AJ Dillon, has announced that he will skip the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft. Dillon rushed for 1,685 yards to finish out his career on 318 carries. The workload now falls to David Bailey, who actually had a higher yards per carry average on his 140 tries. Dillon’s announcement barely registered in the betting odds. Running backs are viewed as pretty plug-and-play in college football.

It has not been plug-and-play at the QB position for BC. Starter Anthony Brown went down with a season-ending knee injury and sophomore QB Dennis Grosel took over. He did post a 9/3 TD/INT ratio and only took eight sacks (Brown only took two), but he only completed 48.6% of his passes. Grosel could have some extra incentive in this one, as the Willoughby, OH native and St. Ignatius grad gets to play an in-state school that didn’t take him.

On the Cincinnati side, the layoff can’t be a bad thing. Not with how banged up Desmond Ridder was at the end of the season. Ridder really regressed this season while dealing with injuries. He threw for fewer yards in more games than he played in 2018. His completion percentage tanked more than 7% and his interception total went up by four. But, he was hurt. Down the stretch, Ridder was 12-of-22 vs. Tulsa, 12-of-24 vs. ECU, 13-of-23 vs. UConn, 9-of-18 vs. USF, 9-of-25 vs. Temple, and then 16-of-36 in the AAC Championship Game against Memphis. He missed the regular season finale the week prior. Four of Ridder’s nine interceptions came in those games.

Mike Warren ran for 1,160 yards to pace the Bearcats, but he did so with just a 4.8 YPC average. Ridder was the second-leading rusher with 545 yards, but he didn’t do as much running late in the year with the injury.

The Cincinnati offense tanked this season. After being 36th in yards per play with 6.12 last season, the Bearcats only mustered 5.55 YPP this season, which ranked 84th. Boston College was 60th in that department with 5.91. The ACC is better than the AAC, but Cincinnati played Ohio State and played Memphis twice, so the Sagarin strength of schedule marks are close, with Cincinnati 65th and Boston College 58th.

BC eked its way into a bowl game at 6-6, but the defense was beyond awful. Addazio has always been known as a defensive head coach, but the Eagles finished the regular season 112th in yards per play against with 6.46. Cincinnati was 33rd in that department with its own defensive-minded HC in Luke Fickell. The Bearcats were 31st against the run with 3.68 yards per carry allowed, which is an important stat for going up against the BC offense, even without Dillon.

Boston College wound up 91st against the run, but they were abominable against the pass. Their 8.5 yards per pass attempt allowed ranked tied for 119th in the nation. If Ridder is healthier after the extended layoff, that should really elevate a Cincinnati offense that badly underachieved during the season.

You have to wonder about motivation both ways here. BC has a new head coach coming into the mix. Gunnell went to BC and seems to be genuinely respected, but there has been a long period of turnover between the bowl game and the end of the regular season.

Cincinnati had higher hopes. The Bearcats won 10 games and their only losses were to Ohio State and Memphis twice. They wanted the conference championship game and that New Year’s Six Bowl spot in the Cotton Bowl against Penn State. They didn’t get there. The additional practices for teams that play so far away are tailored more towards next season than anything.

Also, nothing against the city of Birmingham, but this isn’t really a “destination” bowl. Playing in Florida or Texas or Hawaii or the Bahamas can really get a team energized.

With that in mind, I still think Cincinnati, despite the big number, is the play here. I’d be really concerned about Boston College’s engagement level here. If it is an interim situation early in the bowl period, it feels like time flies and that’s that. When the bowl game is after the New Year, and the new head coach has barely been around, my guess would be that a certain level of apathy settles in.

My line for the game is Cincinnati -6, but that was before the Dillon announcement and without considering all of the circumstantial factors in bowl games.

<strong>Pick: Cincinnati -7</strong>

Birmingham Bowl Odds, Pick, & Prediction: Boston College vs. Cincinnati

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