Given the context and the stakes, UCLA over Gonzaga would have been the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history. Thanks to Jalen Suggs and a 45-foot heave, it didn’t happen. We now get the National Championship that we were hoping for with the game between Baylor and Gonzaga. UCLA fans were certainly hoping for a different outcome, but this is about the best we could have asked for, as the consensus #1 and #2 teams throughout most of the season meet for a title in Indianapolis.
Baylor’s systematic takedown of Houston was one of the most impressive performances of the tournament. It didn’t leave a lot of drama, but it was a sign of what Baylor remains capable of doing, even to teams considered “on their level” by the metrics sites that are out there.
Based on what happened in the two games, we saw a huge adjustment to the betting odds for the National Championship. Gonzaga was expected to be -6 or -6.5 in look-ahead lines. After the games, we now find Gonzaga -4.5 for the title against Baylor at Bookmaker Sportsbook. The total is a robust 159.5 with everything on the line.
Baylor Bears
Baylor has not been an underdog this season until now. The smallest line for the Bears was a -4 number on the road at Texas Tech on January 16. That even includes the postseason. You have to give a lot of credit to Scott Drew. The timing of the February COVID pause was not ideal, though no COVID pause was ideal at any point of the season for any team. It was especially tricky for Baylor, as they came back after three weeks off and looked bad against Iowa State and then lost to Kansas to fall to 18-1. The following game was a war against West Virginia that went Baylor’s way in overtime. Since then, Baylor has looked the part more often than not, including four double-digit wins in five games in the NCAA Tournament. The Bears beat Arkansas by nine in a game that maybe didn’t deserve to be that close. The amazing thing about the Baylor/Houston game is that Baylor actually lost the rebounding battle on the offensive glass 14-13, but it was the offensive rebound in the first half that allowed the Bears to build up a big lead that they never relinquished. Baylor also shot the lights out early in the game and finished 11-of-24 from three. That will be a huge key to the National Championship Game. Baylor comes in as the top three-point shooting team in the country. Gonzaga comes in 43rd in that department, but first in two-point shooting. If Baylor can score by threes while Gonzaga scores by twos, it could make the upset a distinct possibility. Baylor ranks fourth in eFG% offense. Gonzaga ranks second. That is how you end up with a total knocking on the door of 160 points. The Bears have had a much, much harder road to get to this point. Their tournament strength of schedule was a talking point prior to the Houston game. Baylor has played four straight top-20 teams. They’ve conquered them all. They’ve been remarkably efficient on offense in those games. The defense has been good enough. The Houston game really wasn’t even as close as the final score would suggest and Baylor slacked off a bit defensively in the second half. Something that will be really interesting to watch is the pace at which this game is played. Baylor rocked Houston in transition early in the Final Four matchup, but the game was only played to 58 possessions. It was Baylor’s second game in the last three to go under 60 possessions. The Bears even slowed Arkansas down to 69 possessions and also played Wisconsin to just 64. Gonzaga will want to run and push the game in transition. That’s how they create so many open looks. Can the Bears slow down the tempo of the game to something that they are more comfortable with or will Gonzaga dictate the pace?CLAIM YOUR WELCOME BONUS AT BOOKMAKER SPORTSBOOK