Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Betting Pick & Prediction 5/12/24
The Braves head into Sunday’s matchup vs. the Mets looking to complete a sweep, as they have won the first two games of this series. First pitch from Citi Field in New York is set for 7:10 PM ET. There does appear to be a chance of rain in New York on Sunday.
Right now, the over/under line is at 7.5 runs, and the Braves are the favorite on the money line at -126. Luis Severino is starting for the Mets, and he is facing off against Bryce Elder for Atlanta.
ATLANTA BRAVES VS NEW YORK METS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Atlanta Braves Moneyline -126
This game will be played at Citi Field at 7:10 ET on Sunday, May 12th.
HOW TO BET THE BRAVES VS METS:
- We have the Braves winning by a score of 5 to 4
- However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Mets to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over
The most recent game o of this Mets and Braves series came right down to the end, as the Mets rallied late but still fell short with the Braves winning 4-1 on the road. Heading into the game, the Braves were favored at -160 on the money line.
Max Fried pitched well for the Braves in this one, going seven innings and striking out five without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Christian Scott took the loss for the Mets, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work.
Atlanta’s offense was led by Orlando Arcia and Michael Harris II, as they were the only two Braves hitters to have more than one hit. Arcia and Harris each scored two runs and drove in a combined three runs.
Braves Records & Stats
Atlanta is on a four-game winning streak, and they are 24-12 overall this season. The Braves will be on the road today vs. the Mets, and they are two games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. So far, they have gone 10-4 in divisional games.
The Braves have taken the first two games of this series vs. the Mets, and they are 8-3-1 in series this year. At home, the Braves have gone 13-4 compared to an 11-8 mark on the road. As the favorite, Atlanta is 24-10 this year, and they are 0-2 as the underdog.
Atlanta is 19-17 against the run line this season, including an 11-8 mark on the road. The Braves have covered the run line in their last two road games and are 4-0 against the run line in their last four games as the favorite.
Atlanta’s over/under record is 12-22, and the average over/under line for their games is 9 runs. However, when the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, the under has hit in both games. The Braves have gone under in five straight games, and their games have averaged 8.7 runs per game this season.
Bryce Elder will be making his 4th start of the season for the Braves, and it will be his first start on the road. So far this season, he has a win and a loss, and he is coming off a rough outing against the Dodgers, where he gave up 7 runs in just 3 1/3 innings.
Marcell Ozuna has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 12 home runs are the best in the league and he also leads the MLB in RBIs, with 38. Ozuna comes into the game on a five-game hitting streak and has gone 8/26 in his last seven games, including three homers. Travis d’Arnaud is also swinging a good bat for the Braves, as he is batting .270 for the season and has gone deep five times.
Overall, the Braves are the league’s top-scoring offense, averaging 5 runs per game. They are also among the league leaders in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. As a team, they are batting .255, and their team on-base percentage of .325 is 4th in the league.
Mets Records & Stats
The Mets are 4th in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by nine games. Overall, the Mets are 18-20 and have dropped two straight games, losing the first two games of this series vs. the Braves. So far, they are 2-3 in divisional games.
At home, the Mets are 9-12 this year and 9-8 on the road. As the underdog, the Mets are 8-11 this year and 10-9 when favored. New York’s overall series record is 6-5-1, and they are 4-6 over their last 10 games.
When the Mets are the favorite, they are below .500 against the run line, but they have been profitable as the underdog. They are 11-8 against the run line as the underdog, and their average run differential in those games is +0.4 runs per game. The Mets have gone under the run line in three straight games at home, and they have a run line record of 8-13 at home this season.
Through 38 games, the Mets have seen 21 games with over/under lines higher than 7.5, and the over/under average for their games is 8.0. Their games have averaged 8.6 runs per game, and their over/under record is 18-20. The over/under record for their games when the line is set at 7.5 is 4-6. The under has hit in two straight games, and the Mets have played seven games with over/under lines lower than 7.5.
Luis Severino will be looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he gave up four earned runs in five innings of work. In that outing vs. the Rays, he gave up six hits, four walks, and one home run. Severino finished with a no-decision in that outing. Before that, he had turned in a quality start in three straight outings. His ERA for the season is 2.92, along with a record of 2-2. Opponents are batting .196 off Severino this season. Per nine innings, he has 8.32 strikeouts and 3.82 walks.
Over the past eight games, Brandon Nimmo has gone 9/29 for the Mets, with two homers and seven RBIs. This has helped him take over the team lead in RBIs, as he is 8th in the league in that category. Nimmo’s five runs over this stretch is also the best mark on the team. Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have also both hit two homers in the team’s last eight games, with Lindor batting .250 and Alonso just .200.
For the season, Alonso is batting just .215, and Lindor is at .207. However, Alonso’s nine homers are 4th best in the league, and Lindor’s seven is the 6th best mark in the MLB. As a team, the Mets are 16th in scoring at 4.3 runs per game. They have been a better offense on the road, averaging 5.5 runs per contest.