Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Betting Pick & Prediction 5/13/24

The Mavericks are looking to even up this first-round series with the Thunder at two games apiece when they tip off at 9:30 PM ET at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. TNT is carrying this one on TV, and the Mavericks are favored by one point at home. The over/under line is at 213.5 points, and the money line odds are -118 for the Mavericks and -102 for the Thunder.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS DALLAS MAVERICKS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder +1

This game will be played at American Airlines Center at 9:30 ET on Monday, May 13th.

WHY BET THE OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER:

• We have this one finishing with a projected score of 118-114 in favor of the Thunder.
• Our projections have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finishing with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists.
• From the field, we have the Thunder finishing with a field goal percentage of 49.5% and knocking down 14 threes.

The Mavericks picked up a 105-101 win over the Thunder in the most recent game of this series. Going into the game, the Mavericks were favored by 1.5 points and covered the spread. The over/under line for the game was set at 217.5 points, and the teams fell 11.5 points short of that mark.

P.J. Washington led the Mavericks with 27 points in the win, and Luka Doncic added 22 points and 15 rebounds. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 31 points and 10 rebounds for the Thunder. Both teams shot just 33.3% from three-point range, and the Mavericks made just 11 threes.

Will the Thunder Come Through as Road Underdogs?

Today’s game against the Mavericks is the 23rd time this season that the Thunder have been the underdog. In those games, they have gone 10-12 straight up and 12-10 against the spread. As the underdog, their average scoring margin is -1.5 points per game.

In their last game against the Mavericks, the Thunder lost by a score of 105-101. They were 1.5-point underdogs in that game, giving them an ATS loss. The O/U line for that game was 217.5 points.

Oklahoma City’s O/U record for the season is 46-42-1, and their games have averaged 230.8 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 213.5, which is lower than their season average of 230.5.

The Thunder are currently 1st in the Western Conference with a record of 57-25. In the West, they have gone 36-16 against other conference opponents and 21-9 in non-conference games. On the road, they are 26-18.

Oklahoma City has lost two straight games and is 51-38 against the spread this season. On the road, they are 22-22 ATS, and their average scoring differential on the road is +2.3 points per game.

Oklahoma City comes into the game as the NBA’s 3rd ranked scoring offense, at 120.1 points per game. But they have been below the league average in 37.8% of their games. The Thunder’s three-point shooting percentage of 38% is the best mark in the league. Overall, they are shooting 49% from the field, which is the 3rd best rate in the league.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 28.2 points per game over his last five games, along with 6.8 assists and 9.2 rebounds. His season-long numbers are 30.1 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.5 rebounds. Jalen Williams is averaging 19.1 points for the season and 19.8 points in his last five games.

On the season, the Thunder have been a solid defensive team, ranking 10th in points allowed per game at 111.4. They have been even better on the road, giving up 113.7 points per game, which is 14th in the NBA.

One area where Oklahoma City has excelled is in steals and blocked shots, ranking 1st in both categories. They have also done a good job defending the paint, as they are 2nd in two-point shooting percentage allowed.

Over their last five games, the Thunder have been even better on the defensive end, giving up just 98.6 points per game. During this stretch, they have been the top-ranked defense in terms of field goal percentage allowed.

Will the Dallas Defense Show Up at Home?

In games this season, the Mavericks have averaged a combined scoring total of 231.2 points per game compared to today’s O/U line of 213.5. In their most recent game vs. the Thunder, the teams combined for 206 points.

Dallas has gone 41-50 on the O/U this season and 37 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s. In non-conference games, the Mavs are 19-11 on the O/U.

The Mavericks have won their last two games straight up and are currently favored by 1 point against the Thunder. In the Western Conference, they are in 5th place with a record of 50-32.

Against the spread, the Mavericks are 54-37 for the season and have covered in their last two games. At home, they are 24-21 ATS and have an average scoring differential of +3.8 points per game.

As the favorite, the Mavericks have a straight-up record of 42-15 and are 37-20 vs. the spread. In their last game vs. the Thunder, Dallas won 105-101 and covered the spread (-1.5).

Overall, the Mavericks are averaging 117.9 points per game this season, which is 8th in the NBA. Their scoring average at home is 117.7 points per contest, which is 9th in the league. Dallas is 3rd in both three-point attempts and makes this season, but they are just 15th in three-point shooting percentage. The team’s three-point shooting percentage of 36% is 15th in the league.

Luka Doncic is averaging 26.6 points per game over his last five games to go along with 8.8 assists and 9 rebounds. His season three-point shooting percentage is 38.2%. Kyrie Irving is averaging 19 points and 6.2 assists in his last five games and 25.6 points for the year. P.J. Washington has hit 3.6 threes per game in his last five games on a shooting percentage of 47.4%.

So far this season, the Mavericks have been a middle-of-the-pack defense, ranking 17th in points allowed per game at 114.4. At home, they have been slightly better, allowing 113.9 points per game.

Over their last five games, the Mavericks have been even better on the defensive end, ranking 7th in points allowed at 104.4. During this stretch, they have been particularly good at defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 32.8% from beyond the arc.

On the season, opposing teams have hit 36.8% of their three-point attempts against Dallas. In terms of made threes allowed per game, the Mavericks are 17th in the NBA.