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After a shocking opening round which saw both the Metropolitan and Atlantic Division winners knocked out in the East, Round 2 saw both betting favorites win their respective series with the Carolina Hurricanes sweeping the New York Islanders (despite technically being the lower seed) and the new second round Stanley Cup favorite Boston Bruins survive a tight 4-2 series win over the Columbus Blue Jackets. Both series were highlighted by sensational goaltending and solid defense which could set up for a low scoring Eastern Conference Final.

(<a href="http://bangthebook.com/2019-nhl-playoffs-stlouis-blues-vs-san-jose-sharks-western-conference-final-preview/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Check out the Western Conference Final here</a>)

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EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL
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The Carolina Hurricanes were a beat up and tired team after their seven-game war against the defending champion Washington Capitals in the opening round, which saw them win the final two games to overcome a 3-2 series deficit. They advanced on no rest to face an Islanders team who had over a week off after sweeping Pittsburgh in their opening series. Despite showing early fatigue and losing starting goaltender Petr Mrazek in Game 2, Carolina received exceptional goaltending from veteran Curtis McElhinney and a little puck luck to close out the Isles in four straight in a series which was a lot closer than the sweep would indicate.

The Boston Bruins also overcame a 3-2 series deficit in their opening round to defeat the Toronto Maple Leafs in seven games, showing they can beat a team based on skill and speed. The Bruins then went toe-to-toe with the Columbus Blue Jackets who had swept the top-seeded Lightning in round one. After falling behind two games to one, Boston won the final three games to win the series 4-2 thanks to unbelievable goaltending from Tuukka Rask and a resurgent top line. It was a heavier hitting series and the Bruins showed they can also win against a more physical team.

Now, the script is flipped for Carolina as they are the rested team after having a week off, going against a Boston team coming off a physical six-game series which included an overtime and double overtime game. The Bruins are the betting favorites at a -155 series price (indicating they’re a 60.8% favorite) but do they really hold that large of an edge?

The head-to-head season series was extremely close with the teams splitting two games in Carolina and the Bruins winning the lone game in Boston in overtime. All of those meetings can likely be thrown out though as the Bruins were missing several key players in each game and the meeting in December was the only game where Rask or Mrazek played. Let’s look at who may hold the edge in each of the key categories.

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It may come as a surprise to some, but the Hurricanes are the top scoring team per 60 minutes in the 2019 Playoffs, thanks largely to their home ice success where they’ve gone 5-0 scoring five goals in four of the five games (and averaging 4.4 overall). It’s been an upward trend for this team since the trade acquisition of Nino Niederreiter and return of Jordan Staal from injury who have bolstered their scoring depth and made them difficult to line-match against. The Canes are also helped by some of the best puck-moving defensemen in the league and with the improved play in goal of Mrazek and McElhinney, everyone is able to take more chances to create offense knowing the man in net is there to bail them out with the big save.

Although Carolina sweeps the offensive edge for season and playoffs, Boston will still undoubtedly possess the single most dangerous line in this series thanks to the awakening of David Pastrnak who sparked the Bruins with four points in their last two games against Columbus. Along with Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron, the trio have scored 16 of Boston’s 40 goals this postseason. That matchup of the Bruins top line against elite shutdown center Jordan Staal and his line will go a long way to determining who wins this series.

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The Boston defense has been an elite unit all season, but they’ve slipped a bit here in the playoffs. Part of that is due to playing one of the best offensive teams in the first round (Toronto) but could also have a bit to do with missing Kevan Miller who helped stabilize the backend and give Boston one of the deepest bluelines in the league. Miller will still be out to begin this round and they’ll also be without Charlie McAvoy for Game 1 which gives Carolina a clear edge on the backend at least to begin the series.

The Carolina defense was also a strong unit this season and have really turned up the pressure this postseason, but their numbers are also propped up a bit from playing the Islanders in the second round, a rather anemic offense. Keeping those things in mind, there isn’t much separating the quality of these bluelines. The Canes get a sizeable defensive edge in Game 1 with McAvoy out and still get the overall edge based on their current form and the Bruins depth weakened without Miller.

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There’s no single category here which sees two completely opposite ends of the spectrum than what we see here in Special Teams. The Boston powerplay is an elite unit and the one thing they’ve succeeded in doing all season is putting the puck in the back of the net. They scored seven goals against the Leafs in round one which was arguably the difference in the series and then scored three goals last round against the elite penalty killing unit of Columbus.

The Carolina penalty kill was one of the league’s best units in the regular season, but they slipped a bit down the stretch and have been downright terrible here in the playoffs. They had a ton of difficulty against the elite unit of Washington in round one where they allowed six goals and then allowed three to the Islanders last round, a team with one of the worst powerplays. That doesn’t bode well against this Bruins attack and could be the biggest factor in the series. Carolina will absolutely have to show poise and discipline to stay out of the box, which won’t be easy against the aggressive Bruins who excel at getting under their opponent’s skin.

The other half of Carolina’s special teams hasn’t been any better as the powerplay has served more as a momentum killer than anything, averaging just 1.6 shots and 1 scoring chance per two minute powerplay. The Bruins penalty kill has been average in the playoffs, but average should be well enough to have the edge here and with the significant powerplay advantage, Boston holds a clear edge in Special Teams in what could be the difference in the series.

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Neither team has been great at getting quality shots from the slot area and both defenses don’t allow many High Danger attempts, so premium scoring opportunities should be low at both ends. With Carolina being the top team at defending this area in their own zone, look for them to hold the edge in the slot battle which may ultimately not be a big factor in this series.

The Bruins will look to use their underrated speed to create scoring chances off the rush where they’ve been effective and with the Canes struggling to slow down their opponent’s rush, Boston will be dangerous with quick strikes, giving them the overall edge in the key stats.

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This is a bit of a grey-area entering the series as Rod Brind’Amour still hasn’t announced whether Petr Mrazek is fully ready to go or if Curtis McElhinney will start the series. McElhinney was excellent in relief against the Islanders after entering midway through Game 2 when Mrazek suffered an injury. He allowed just four total goals over two-and-a-half games with a .947 overall save percentage and .965 at 5-on-5 which would qualify as the best mark in the playoffs.

If Mrazek doesn’t start Game 1, it’s believed he’ll still start the majority of games this series which is why he’s penciled in for the stats pack. His numbers over the second half of the season were right at the top of the league and although they don’t look as pretty from the first round series against Washington, there’s no question he was exceptional during the big moments when the games were on the line late.

Tuukka Rask had a terrible regular season and posted a career-low overall save percentage of just .912, but he’s caught fire here in the playoffs and is the likely Conn Smythe leader as of this moment for Playoffs MVP. Only Mike Smith of the Calgary Flames posted better overall 5-on-5 numbers this postseason and of all the goaltenders still standing, no one comes close to Rask’s numbers with St. Louis’ Jordan Binnington and Mrazek a distant 2nd and 3rd behind him.

The clear edge in net belongs to Rask entering the series as he’s been the best player on the ice for Boston this postseason but the numbers on the Carolina side are also very good. The biggest question may be whether Mrazek will be as effective when he returns as we’ve seen he’s one of the best at making the big save when the game’s on the line.

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FINAL WORD: If you’ve been following along to all of my previews before each round, you’ll notice this is the first series where Carolina red and white doesn’t completely dominate the stat graphics. This will be their biggest test yet and first time they won’t be considered the pre-series favorite but this one should also be closer than many expect. The Canes should still hold a slight edge while playing 5-on-5 at both ends of the ice but their penalty kill is going to be the X-factor in the end. Boston’s powerplay is simply too dangerous and a key powerplay goal in a few low scoring games could ultimately be the deciding factor.

SERIES PICK: BOSTON IN 7 

SERIES WAGER: BOSTON (-160) (1 unit) (Regardless of what you currently hold for Futures tickets, the recommendation is to grab the series price on Boston to start, with the expectation of them winning Game 1. We’ll look at other options after that)

FUTURES WAGER: NONE (We’re currently holding Carolina to win the Stanley Cup at +2600 and although the expectation is for their ride to end here, due to the fact we’re also holding Cup Futures on both St. Louis and San Jose we’re okay with letting this series play out a bit, knowing we’ll have a dog in the Finals either way. We don’t have much room left to buy Boston at the current +175 price and still turn a profit from our Futures, so we’ll keep an eye on the prices and if Carolina can get a series lead at some point we’ll take a look at the options then)

2018-19 NHL Playoffs Carolina Hurricanes vs. Boston Bruins Eastern Conference Final Preview

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The 2021-22 NBA season goes on Tuesday, March 29, with five games around the league, so we are taking a closer look at the Western Conference duel from American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas, to get you the best Lakers vs. Mavericks betting pick along with the latest odds update on <a href="https://www.bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/betus/">Bet Us Sportsbook</a>.  



After splitting their first two encounters of the season, the Lakers and Mavs wrap up their three-game set. Los Angeles beat Dallas 107-104 as a 3.5-point road fave on December 15, while the Mavericks responded with a 109-104 victory as 4.5-point road favorites on the first day of March.



<h2>The Lakers lost two in a row</h2>



The Los Angeles Lakers (31-43; 31-43 ATS) are coming off a 116-108 defeat at the New Orleans Pelicans this past Sunday. It was their second straight loss and sixth over the Lakers’ last eight showings at any location, as LeBron James and his teammates managed to blow a 23-point lead at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans.



LeBron dropped 39 points on the Pels to go with nine rebounds, five assists, and a block, while Russell Westbrook had 18 points, seven boards, and six assists. Malik Monk added 23 points off the bench, but the rest of the team has been awful.



The Lakers are without Anthony Davis (ankle) and Kendrick Nunn (knee). Their play-in tournament spot is in jeopardy, as the Lakers are only one game ahead of the No. 11 San Antonio Spurs. Los Angeles has scored 115.5 points per 100 possessions in its last ten games (13th in the NBA) while yielding 121.4 in a return (28th).



<h2>The Mavs won three of their last four contests              </h2>



The Dallas Mavericks improved to 46-29 straight up and 42-32-1 ATS on the season following a 114-100 victory to the Utah Jazz. Luka Doncic was the Mavs’ top scorer once more, accounting for 32 points on 11-for-21 shooting from the field, while Jalen Brunson posted a line of 22 points, ten rebounds, and five assists.



The Mavericks extended their winning streak at American Airlines Center to three games. They’ve been terrific at home over the last 20 games, going 16-4 SU and 13-6-1 ATS in the process.



Over their previous ten games overall, the Mavs have gone 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS. Now, they are laying at the fourth spot of the Eastern Conference standings. The Mavericks are a couple of games off third-seeded Golden State and only one game ahead of fifth-seeded Utah.



<h2>Trends:</h2>



LA Lakers:



<ul><li>5-11 ATS in the last 16 games overall</li><li>0-5 ATS in the last five games against the Western Conference</li><li>0-6 ATS in the last six games against the Southwest Division&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li></ul>



Dallas:



<ul><li>12-6 ATS in the last 18 games overall</li><li>9-3 ATS in the last 12 games at home</li><li>4-1 ATS in the last five games against the Lakers</li></ul>



<h2 id="h-los-angeles-lakers-vs-dallas-mavericks-pick">Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks Pick</h2>



The Lakers’ defense has been a big problem over the last few weeks. I’ve mentioned their awful defensive rating in the last ten contests. Hereof, I have to back the Mavericks to cover. Dallas looks like a much better defensive team than Los Angeles, and the Mavericks have been outstanding on the home court so far this season.



Both teams have a lot to play for, so the hosts won’t have an easy task despite the Lakers’ terrible run of form. Still, I’m expecting the Mavericks’ depth to make the difference, while Luka Doncic will be a key factor in the crunch time.



Pick: Take Dallas Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



The Total:



The Mavericks’ last five home contests have gone under the total. Also, the under is 9-2 in their previous 11 games overall. On the other side, four of the Lakers’ last five contests and ten of their last 14 games on the road have gone over the total.



The betting trends are not helping a lot, though the total has gone under in the last three encounters between the Lakers and Mavericks. Los Angeles prefers to play at a fast pace, and Dallas should look to slow things down. Over their last ten outings, the Mavs have played at the slowest pace in the NBA, averaging 94.1 possessions per 48 minutes.



Pick: Go under

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds, Pick, Prediction 3/29/22

Planning on watching today's Blues and Devils game? Catch the action at Prudential Center in Newark, NJ, as the Devils hosts this showdown at 7:00 ET on ESPN. This non-conference matchup has an over/under of 6.5 goals, and the Devils are favored by -1.5 against the Blues.<h3>ST. LOUIS BLUES VS NEW JERSEY DEVILS BETTING PICK</h3>The Pick: New Jersey Devils -1.5This game will be played at Prudential Center at 7:00 ET on Thursday, March 7th.<h3>WHY BET THE NEW JERSEY DEVILS:</h3><ul><li>With the Devils being favored by 1.5, our NHL analytics models has this one playing out 4-3 in favor of the Devils.</li><li>Take the Devils on the moneyline</li><li>On the spread, we like Blues (+1.5)</li></ul><h3>Can St. Louis Secure a Road Victory?</h3>On the season, the Blues have a record of 32-27-3, which has them in 9th place in the Western Conference. In their division, St. Louis is in 5th place with a record of 8-12.

When playing on the road this season, the Blues have gone 14-16-2. Over their last ten games, St. Louis has gone 4-6, and they are 2-3 over their last five games.St. Louis has an overall puck line record of 35-27, including going 2-1 against the puck line in their last three games. On the road, their puck line record is 16-16, and they are 6-4 vs. the puck line in their last ten road games.

The Blues have 19 wins by multiple goals compared to 13 by just one goal. When listed as the underdog, St. Louis has a puck line record of 29-18 and has gone 3-2 vs. the puck line in their last five games. This season, St. Louis' games have an average of 6 goals per game. The average over/under number for the season is 6.3. The Blues come in with an over/under performance of 25-31-6.When looking at their past three road matchups, St. Louis has an puck line record of 2-1 while averaging 2 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.On offense, the Blues are averaging 2.8 goals per game which is 26th in the NHL. In terms of shots on goal per game, they are 26th in the league. The St. Louis offense is ranked 24th in power play goals. As for shorthanded goals, they find themselves at 3rd in the NHL.St. Louis will be looking for a good game from Pavel Buchnevich who leads the team in scoring with 24 goals, ranking 38th in the NHL. Buchnevich also comes into the game with 24 assists.The Devils' defense comes into the game with a ranking of 13th in takeaways and an average of 6.9 takeaways per contest. They hold 26th place in the NHL for goals allowed, with an average of 3.2 goals given up per game.Heading into this matchup vs. New Jersey, goalie Jordan Binnington has started 42 games in this season. His current record is 22-16, and his save percentage stands at 0.944%.<h3>Will New Jersey Pull Through as the Favored Home Team?</h3>At home this season, the Devils have gone 14-16-2, and they have dropped their last two games at the Prudential Center. In the Eastern Conference, New Jersey is in 12th place and has gone 18-18 against conference opponents. In the Metropolitan Division, the Devils are in 7th place and have gone 9-9 against divisional opponents. For the season, New Jersey has a record of 30-28-4, and they have lost three straight games.

As the favorite this year, the Devils have gone 25-17-2, and they have been the favorite in 44 of their 62 games. In their last ten games, New Jersey has gone 3-7, and they have gone 1-4 in their last five games. Against the puck line this year, the Devils have gone 24-38, and they have gone 6-12 as the favorite.At home this year, the Devils have gone just 5-27 on the puck line, and their overall puck line record is just 21-41. So far, New Jersey has 13 puck line wins as the favorite, and their average scoring margin when favored is at 0.2 goals per game.

Overall, the Devils have 17 wins by multiple goals and 22 losses by more than one goal. In their last ten home games, the team's puck line record is just 3-7, and they have gone just 2-8 against the puck line in their last ten games overall. This season, New Jersey's games have an average of 6.8 goals per game. The average over/under number for the season is 6.5. The Devils come in with an over/under performance of 36-25-1.Across their last three road contests, St. Louis has a 2-1 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 1-2, while averaging 2 goals per game.For their offensive performance, the Devils come in averaging 3.3 goals per game this season, which is 10th in the NHL. In the category of shots on goal per game, they are 8th in the league. The Devils went 21-14 in games where they had more shots than their opponents. However, in games with fewer shots on goal, their record was 9-13.New Jersey's current leading scorer is Tyler Toffoli. This season, he has 26 goals, which puts him 29th in the NHL. In addition to his goal scoring, Toffoli has 18 assists this season.The Devils' defense comes into the game with a ranking of 13th in takeaways and an average of 6.9 takeaways per contest. They hold 26th place in the NHL for goals allowed, with an average of 3.2 goals given up per game.Entering the game, goalie Nico Daws has started 18 games this season. His current record stands at 8-10, and his save percentage is 0.481%.

St. Louis Blues vs New Jersey Devils Betting Pick & Prediction 3/7/24

The Skyhawks and Pioneers are set to face off at 7:00 ET on NEC. The Pioneers will host the game at William H. Pitt Center in Fairfield, CT. The over/under for this game is set at 141.5 points, and Sacred Heart is favored by -11.5 vs. Stonehill in a Northeast conference matchup.<h3>STONEHILL SKYHAWKS VS SACRED HEART PIONEERS BETTING PICK</h3>The Pick: Sacred Heart Pioneers -11.5This game will be played at William H. Pitt Center at 7:00 ET on Thursday, February 1st.<h3>WHY BET THE SACRED HEART PIONEERS:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 91-59 in favor of the Pioneers.</li><li>Not only will Sacred Heart pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -11.5.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 141.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 150 points.</li></ul><h3>Is a Win at Fairfield Possible for the Skyhawks?</h3>Stonehill has had a rough season, going 2-20 overall, including a 0-7 record in Northeast Conference play. They have lost nine straight games, with their last win coming on December 5th against LIU. On the road, the Skyhawks have gone winless, going 0-15, and their average margin of defeat is -20.5.

For the season, Stonehill has been the underdog in 20 of their 22 games, going just 1-19 in those contests. They are currently riding a 15-game losing streak on the road, and their record as the underdog this season is 1-19.Stonehill's ATS mark this season is 6-15-1, including a 3-11-1 mark on the road. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Skyhawks have gone just 2-7-1 vs. the spread.So far this season, the over/under record for Stonehill games is 7-15. Today's line of 141.5 is lower than the average OU line in their games this year (143.7). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 125 points, and their OU record in those games is 0-3. On the season, they have had 11 games finish with more points than today's OU line of 141.5.In their recent game, the Skyhawks' offense concluded with 60 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 62.9 points per contest. Todd Brogna was the leading scorer for the Skyhawks, putting up 12 points. In addition, Max Zegarowski contributed 12 points.So far, the Skyhawks' defense is ranked 274th in the country at 77.3 points per contest. Stonehill's three-point defense is currently 216th in the country at 9.5 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 42.0% of their shots vs. Stonehill.<h3>Does Sacred Heart Have What it Takes to Win as Home Favorites?</h3>After losing their last two games, Sacred Heart enters this game with a record of 10-12. The Pioneers have been much better at home, going 6-3 compared to just 2-9 on the road. They are also 8-5 when favored this season.

So far this year, Sacred Heart has gone 4-3 in Northeast Conference games and 6-9 in non-conference action. In their last game, the Pioneers lost to Fairleigh Dickinson by a score of 93-91.As the favorite this season, Sacred Heart has an ATS record of 8-5. Their home ATS record is 6-3 and they have gone 3-0 ATS in their last 3 home games. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Pioneers are 6-4 vs. the spread.This season, the over/under record for Sacred Heart games is 11-9, and today's over/under line of 141.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games this year (146.9). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 152 points, and their over/under record over their last 10 games is 6-3.Sacred Heart is fresh off a strong offensive showing, putting up 91 points versus Fairleigh Dickinson. This output is higher than their season-average of 73.9 points per game. Offensively, the Pioneers have a season long field goal percentage of 44%, which is 214th in the nation. In terms of three-pointers, they are 181st in percentage and 225th in three-pointers made.Coming into today's game, the Sacred Heart defense is giving up an average of 72.7 points per contest. In today's game vs. Stonehill, the Sacred Heart defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, Sacred Heart made 18 free-throws vs. the Pioneers.

Stonehill Skyhawks vs Sacred Heart Pioneers Betting Pick & Prediction 2/1/24

College Football

North Texas Mean Green vs UTSA Roadrunners Betting Pick & Prediction 11/15/24

Wyoming Cowboys vs Colorado State Rams Betting Pick & Prediction 11/15/24

Houston Cougars vs Arizona Wildcats Betting Pick & Prediction 11/15/24

UCLA Bruins vs Washington Huskies Betting Pick & Prediction 11/15/24

East Carolina Pirates vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane Betting Pick & Prediction 11/14/24

Akron Zips vs Northern Illinois Huskies Betting Pick & Prediction 11/13/24

Eastern Michigan Eagles vs Ohio Bobcats Betting Pick & Prediction 11/13/24

Kent State Golden Flashes vs Miami (OH) RedHawks Betting Pick & Prediction 11/13/24

Central Michigan Chippewas vs Toledo Rockets Betting Pick & Prediction 11/12/24

Ball State Cardinals vs Buffalo Bulls Betting Pick & Prediction 11/12/24

Kickoff for this matchup between the Arizona Wildcats and Oklahoma Sooners is set for 9:15 PM ET. The game will be played in San Antonio, TX at Alamodome with ESPN carrying television coverage. Arizona comes into this non-conference matchup with the Sooners, as the 3 point road favorite. Keep reading to get my recommendations on what angles to take for your bets.<h3>ARIZONA WILDCATS VS OKLAHOMA SOONERS BETTING PICK</h3>The Pick: Arizona Wildcats -3This game will be played at Alamodome at 9:15 ET on Thursday, December 28th.<h3>WHY BET THE ARIZONA WILDCATS:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 34-30 in favor of Arizona.</li><li>Not only will Arizona pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -3.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 63 points, and we like the over with a projected 64 points.</li></ul><h3>Can The Wildcats Secure a Road Victory?</h3>So far, the Arizona Wildcats are 9-3, including going 4-0 on the road and 4-1 at home.Arizona has gone into five games as the favorite this season and four games as the underdog. Their ATS record is currently 7-2.So far in this season, Arizona has posted an over/under record of 3-6. On average, their matchups have yielded a combined score of 55.2 points, with the typical over/under line set at 57.2 points.Arizona comes into the game with an offense averaging 34.3, which places them at 25th in the NCAA rankings. Their passing game has them ranked 13th nationally, with an average of 304.5 passing yards. In the rushing department, they're 77th in the nation, with 364 rushing attempts per game for the season.So far this season, the Wildcats' defense has given up 111.7 rushing yards per game against the run (188th). Opponents are averaging 229.6 passing yards and opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of 86.9 against Arizona. In terms of points allowed, they are 83rd in the NCAA.<h3>Can Oklahoma Grab a Win at Home?</h3>So far, the Oklahoma Sooners are 10-2, including going 3-2 on the road and 7-0 at home.Oklahoma has gone into 11 games as the favorite this season and one game as the underdog. Their ATS record is currently 8-4.This season, Oklahoma has posted an over/under record of 7-5 through 12 games. On average their games have combined for 65.4 points.Oklahoma's offense is averaging 43.2 points per game, which ranks them 5th in the NCAA. Through the air, they're at 321.8 passing yards on average, putting them at 7th in the nation. Their rushing attack is currently 40th in rushing yards, with an average of 478 rushing attempts per game this season.Oklahoma's defense is ranked 80th in passing yards allowed per game as they prepare for this matchup. Opponents have attempted an average of 36.3 passing attempts against the Sooners. They have given up 22.2 points per game so far, placing them 80th in college football. In the NCAA's rush defense category, they are 79th.

Arizona Wildcats vs Oklahoma Sooners Betting Pick & Prediction Valero Alamo Bowl