Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Betting Pick & Prediction 1/26/25
The Chiefs are favored at -2 on the point spread and have a money line of -129 as they host the Bills in the AFC Championship. Kickoff is at 6:30 ET on Sunday, January 26th at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The over/under line is at 47.5 points, and this one will be shown on CBS.
BUFFALO BILLS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Buffalo Bills +2
This game will be played at Arrowhead Stadium at 6:30 ET on Sunday, January 26th.
WHY BET THE BUFFALO BILLS:
- We have the Bills winning this one by a score of 27 to 25
- Not only do we have the Bills winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +2
- Look for this game to go over the line of 47.5 points
Will The Bills Pick Up A Win On The Road?
After finishing the regular season 13-4, the Bills bounced back from two straight losses with a 37-10 win over the Jaguars in week 3. Buffalo was favored by 4 points and easily covered the spread, while the 57 combined points were enough to hit the over. In week 2, the Bills were 2.5-point underdogs on the road against the Dolphins, but they came away with a 31-10 victory. The 41 points in that game fell short of the 49-point line. Buffalo also picked up a 34-28 win over the Cardinals in week 1, but they couldn’t cover the 6.5-point spread.
Buffalo entered week 3 ranked 3rd in our NFL power rankings. They went 5-1 in the AFC East and 11-3 in conference play, putting them 2nd in the AFC. The Bills were 10-0 at home this season but just 5-4 on the road. They had an average scoring margin of +9.6 points per game and went 12-7 against the spread, including a 9-5 record as favorites and a 3-2 mark as underdogs. Their O/U record was also 12-7, with their games averaging 51.7 points compared to a 46.7-point line.
Buffalo’s offense is 3rd in our power rankings heading into the AFC Championship game. They are 2nd in the NFL in scoring, averaging 30.7 points per game, and 10th in total yards with 360.5 per game. Despite ranking 27th in passing attempts, they are 11th in passing yards, averaging 224.3 per game. On the ground, the Bills rank 7th in rushing attempts and 9th in rushing yards, with 136.2 per game. Buffalo is 7th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a 44.1% success rate, but they rank 30th in red zone conversion percentage.
Josh Allen threw for 127 yards on 16/22 passing in the divisional round, after his 272-yard, 2-touchdown performance against the Broncos in the Wild Card round. James Cook led the rushing attack with 67 yards on 17 carries, and Khalil Shakir had 6 receptions for 67 yards. Buffalo scored 7 points in the 1st quarter and 14 in the 2nd against the Ravens, but they were held scoreless in the 3rd quarter.
The Bills’ defense gave up 176 rushing yards on just 30 attempts in their 27-25 win over the Ravens. Despite allowing 416 total yards, Buffalo’s defense made some key plays to help secure the victory. They intercepted one pass, recorded two sacks, and held the Ravens to a 72% completion percentage on third down.
Buffalo allowed 240 passing yards and two passing touchdowns in the game. The Ravens also had a big day running the ball, averaging 5.9 yards per attempt. However, the Bills’ defense did enough to come out on top.
Will The Chiefs Win At Home Over The Bills?
The Chiefs head into the conference championship against the Bills with a 15-2 record, which was good enough to secure the top spot in the AFC. They went 5-1 in division games and 11-2 in conference play. Kansas City was undefeated at home this season (9-0) and went 7-2 on the road.
In our power rankings, the Chiefs were 6th heading into week 3. They have an average scoring margin of +3.8 points per game and are 7-10-1 against the spread. Their O/U record is 7-11, with the under hitting in their last two games.
We have the Chiefs 8th in our offensive power rankings heading into the conference championship. They are 14th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 22.7, and rank 19th in yards per game with 321.2. Kansas City has been strong on 3rd down, converting 48.5% of their attempts, which ranks 2nd in the league. They are 16th in passing yards per game, averaging 219, and 24th in rushing with 102.2 yards per game.
Patrick Mahomes threw for 177 yards and a touchdown in the divisional round, completing 16 of 25 passes. Travis Kelce led the team with 7 catches for 117 yards, while Kareem Hunt had 44 rushing yards on 8 carries. The Chiefs scored 10 points in the 4th quarter against Houston, after being shut out in the 3rd quarter.
The Chiefs’ defense came up with a massive eight sacks in their 23-14 win over the Texans, and they held Houston to just 187 passing yards. Despite this, they struggled against the run, allowing 149 yards on 29 attempts. The Chiefs’ offense had 336 total yards in the game.
Even though they were strong against the pass, the Chiefs allowed the Texans to convert 58.8% of their third down attempts. Kansas City’s eight sacks were a key factor in the game, and they also had six more quarterback hits than the Texans.