Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans Betting Pick & Prediction 1/11/25
The Texans are +134 on the money line as they host the Chargers at 4:30 ET on Saturday, January 11th at NRG Stadium in Houston. The Chargers are favored on the road with a money line of -160. CBS is covering this AFC matchup, and the Chargers are -3 point favorites with the over/under line set at 43.5 points.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS VS HOUSTON TEXANS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Houston Texans +3
This game will be played at NRG Stadium at 4:30 ET on Saturday, January 11th.
WHY BET THE HOUSTON TEXANS:
- We have the Chargers winning this one by a score of 21 to 19
- Even though we like the Chargers to win, our ATS pick is to take the Texans at +3
- We see this game finishing below the line of 43.5 points
Will The Chargers Pick Up A Win On The Road?
The Chargers ended the regular season with three straight wins, including a 34-20 victory over the Raiders in week 18. Los Angeles entered the game as 7-point favorites and covered the spread, bringing their ATS record to 12-4-1. They have covered in three consecutive games, including a 40-7 win over the Patriots in week 17 and a 34-27 win over the Broncos in week 16. The over hit in all three games, with the teams combining for 61 points in the Broncos game.
Los Angeles finished the season 11-6, placing them 5th in our power rankings. They went 4-2 in division games and 8-4 in conference play, and their road record of 6-3 was slightly better than their 5-3 mark at home. The Chargers are 11-2 ATS as favorites and 1-2-1 as underdogs this season.
Justin Herbert posted a passer rating of 105 in week 3, going 12/18 for 125 yards and a touchdown, without any interceptions. Quentin Johnston led the team with 44 receiving yards on 2 catches, while J.K. Dobbins rushed for 44 yards on 15 carries. The Chargers scored 7 points in the first quarter but were shut out the rest of the game, converting only 3 of 11 third-down attempts and failing to score on their lone red zone trip.
Heading into the Wild Card round, the Chargers rank 11th in the NFL in points per game (23.6) and 20th in yards per game (324.2). They are 19th in passing yards per game and 17th in rushing yards per game, with 27.2 rushing attempts per game. Los Angeles ranks 11th in third-down conversions and 10th in red zone conversion percentage.
In the Chargers’ 34-20 win over the Raiders, their defense allowed just 39 rushing yards on 12 attempts. Despite not recording any sacks, they did manage to hit the quarterback two more times than the Raiders. Los Angeles gave up 225 passing yards, with the Raiders completing 69.4% of their passes, and two passing touchdowns. The Chargers defended well on third downs, allowing only a 22.2% conversion rate.
The Chargers’ defense held the Raiders to 264 total yards in the game. They also came up with one interception and limited the Raiders to 3.2 yards per attempt in the running game. Although they didn’t get to the quarterback for any sacks, their performance against the run and on third downs was key in their victory.
Will The Texans Win At Home Over The Chargers?
Heading into the playoffs, the Texans sit atop the AFC South with a 10-7 record, including a 5-1 mark in division games. After being ranked 18th in our power rankings to start the season, they now hold the 4th spot in the AFC. Houston closed out the regular season with three straight wins, including a 23-14 victory over the Titans in week 18. They were 2.5-point underdogs in that game but managed to cover the spread.
Houston’s average scoring margin this season is 0, and they have a 7-9-1 record against the spread. As favorites, they went 4-6-1 ATS, and they were 3-3 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 6-10-1, with their games averaging 43.8 points compared to an average line of 44.5.
Heading into the Wild Card round, the Texans rank 20th in our offensive power rankings. They are 18th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 21.9 points per game, and sit 22nd in total yards per game with 319.7. Houston ranks 10th in passing attempts per game, but they are 21st in passing yards, averaging 207.4 per game. On the ground, they are 17th in rushing attempts and 15th in rushing yards, with an average of 112.3 per game. The Texans are 17th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a rate of 37.7%, and they rank 15th in red zone conversion percentage.
In week 3, Houston struggled offensively, scoring just 7 points in a loss to the Vikings. C.J. Stroud threw for 215 yards, with 2 interceptions and 1 touchdown, completing 20 of 31 passes. The Texans converted only 4 of 14 3rd-down attempts. Cam Akers led the team in rushing with 21 yards on 9 carries, while Stefon Diggs had 10 receptions for 94 yards.
Houston’s defense played well on third downs in their 23-14 win over the Titans, allowing just a 33.3% conversion rate. They also limited Tennessee to 85 rushing yards on 32 attempts, giving up only 2.7 yards per attempt. The Texans’ defense allowed just 16 completions to the Titans for 229 yards, with one touchdown and a 61.5% completion rate.
They also recorded two sacks and had a positive differential in quarterback hits and tackles for loss. Overall, the Texans gave up 314 total yards in the game.