New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Prediction 9/30/24
Both the Mets and Braves will be looking to move into 2nd in the NL East, as they are currently tied with an overall record of 88-72. However, the Braves are the betting favorite heading into Monday’s matchup, with their money line odds sitting at -157. The money line odds for a Mets win are at +133. Today’s over/under line is at 7.5 runs.
SNY will be televising today’s game, which gets underway at 1:10 PM ET from Truist Park in Atlanta. Tylor Megill is starting for the Mets, while the Braves are going with Spencer Schwellenbach.
NEW YORK METS VS ATLANTA BRAVES BETTING PICK
The Pick: New York Mets Moneyline +133
This game will be played at Truist Park at 1:10 ET on Monday, September 30th.
HOW TO BET THE METS VS BRAVES:
- We have the Mets winning by a score of 6 to 5
- If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Mets to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over
Mets Records & Stats
Heading into their last game vs. the Brewers, the Mets closed out the series with a 5-0 win. Leading up to the game, they were the slight favorite at -143 on the money line. It was a big first inning for the Mets, as they scored their first run of the game and added three more in the 4th.
David Peterson put together a good start for the Mets, going seven innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just three walks and struck out eight Brewers batters. Francisco Lindor was hot at the plate, going 2/4 with a homer and two RBIs.
The Mets will be on the road to take on the Braves with an overall record of 88-72, which has them six games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. New York’s overall record includes a mark of 29-21 against other teams in the NL East. They are also 21-21 as the road underdog this season.
At home, the Mets have gone 46-35 this year while posting a 42-37 record on the road. This season, the Mets are 59-39 when favored and 29-33 as the underdog. The team’s series record is 27-18-8 this year.
When the Mets are on the road, they have a run differential of +0.3 runs per game, which is slightly lower than their season average of +0.5 runs per game. They have a 43-36 run line record on the road, which includes a 36-26 record as the underdog.
Today’s over/under line of 7.5 runs for the New York Mets’ road game against the Atlanta Braves is lower than their season average of 8 runs per game. The Mets have played 39 games with an over/under line of 7.5 runs this season, going 22-17 in those contests. Their games have averaged a combined 9 runs per game this season, and the under has hit in their last two games.
New York is sending Tylor Megill to the mound today vs. the Braves, and he comes in with a record of 4-5 and an ERA of 3.98. Megill has made 14 starts this year and has pitched well on the road, coming in with a record of 2-2 and an ERA of 6.1. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going four innings and giving up one earned run on six hits vs. the Phillies. Before that, he had gone six innings without giving up an earned run vs. the Nationals. Megill’s WHIP for the season is 1.27, and he is averaging 10.33 strikeouts per nine innings.
Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Brandon Nimmo are all tied for the team lead in RBIs this season, with each player having 88 RBIs. Alonso and Lindor are also 1st and 2nd on the team in home runs, respectively. Lindor is batting .272 for the season, while Alonso is hitting just .240. The Mets will be looking for both players to improve their batting averages.
As a team, the Mets are 5th in home runs and are 7th in the league in runs scored, averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 4.7 runs per game. New York is also near the top of the league in terms of isolated power and slugging percentage.
Braves Records & Stats
Heading into their last game vs. the Royals, the Braves closed out the series with a 4-2 loss. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -218. Offensively, the Braves only scored two runs on eight hits and didn’t hit a home run.
Charlie Morton got the start for the Braves and took the loss. He only lasted 4 1/3 innings, giving up four earned runs on five hits. The Braves also issued two walks in thejson to the Royals.
With an overall record of 88-72, the Braves are six games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. Currently, they are also tied with the Mets for the NL East, and both teams are six games behind the Phillies. Atlanta will host the Mets today, and they have an overall division record of 27-23 this year.
At home, the Braves are 45-34 compared to a 43-38 mark on the road. As the favorite, the Braves have gone 75-54 this season, and they are 13-18 as the underdog. Atlanta has won three straight series, and they are 29-16-7 in series this year. Their overall record is 7-3 over their last ten games.
When betting the run line on the Braves, it’s been a better idea to take them on the road, where they are 43-38 compared to 33-46 at home. They have an average run margin of +1.2 on the road, compared to -.0 at home. They have been the favorite in 129 games, going 58-71 on the run line, while they are 18-13 as the underdog.
The Braves have played in 116 games with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs this season, which is 72.5% of their games. Their games have averaged 8.1 runs per game. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, the over has gone 13-22 in those games. Their over/under record for the season is 58-96, and their games have averaged an over/under line of 8 runs per game.
Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach has made 20 starts this season and has a record of 8-7. His ERA for the season is 3.47, along with a WHIP of 1.07. Schwellenbach has pitched much better at home this year, coming in with a record of 5-4 and an ERA of 3.78. In comparison, he is 3-3 on the road with a 3.61 ERA. The right-hander has won his last three starts, most recently going seven innings vs. the Mets and giving up just one run. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight starts.
For the season, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. However, they have been better on the road, averaging 4.8 runs per game. Atlanta is 4th in the league in home runs and has a collective batting average of .243, which is 11th in the MLB right now. The team’s collective on-base percentage and slugging percentage are both right around league average.
Marcell Ozuna has been the Braves’ top offensive performer this season, as he is batting .304 with 39 home runs and 102 RBIs. He has been even better of late, going 8/20 in his last five games. Matt Olson is also a power threat in the lineup, as he comes into the game with 29 homers. Atlanta will look to get a boost from Ronald Acuña Jr., who comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak.