Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick & Prediction 9/28/24
There appears to be a chance for light rain in Cleveland on Saturday, where the Guardians and Astros will face off at Progressive Field. First pitch is currently scheduled for 6:10 PM ET. Justin Verlander is starting for the Astros, while the Guardians are going with Ben Lively.
Houston is currently favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -101 compared to the Guardians at -117. The over/under line is at 8 runs, and this AL matchup can be seen on BSGL. The Astros are 87-73, while the Guardians are 92-68 and are first in the AL Central.
HOUSTON ASTROS VS CLEVELAND GUARDIANS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Houston Astros Moneyline -101
This game will be played at Progressive Field at 6:10 ET on Saturday, September 28th.
HOW TO BET THE ASTROS VS GUARDIANS:
- We have the Astros winning by a score of 5 to 4
- However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Guardians to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over
Houston picked up a 5-2 road win over the Guardians in the most recent game of this series. The Astros offense got off to a fast start, scoring one run in the first and adding two more in the 2nd. On the other side, the Guardians got on the board with two runs in the 4th and added their final run in the 9th.
Ronel Blanco only went five innings for the Astros but didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. He finished the game with just three strikeouts and allowed two hits. Joey Cantillo struggled on the mound for the Guardians, giving up three earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings of work.
Zach Dezenzo and Victor Caratini each homered for the Astros, while Alex Bregman went 3/4 with two doubles. Kyle Tucker also had a three-hit game at the plate.
Astros Records & Stats
The Astros are 87-73 overall this season, and they lead the AL West by four games over the Mariners. Houston will be on the road today, facing the Guardians. So far, they have gone 29-23 in divisional games.
At home, the Astros have gone 46-35 this season, and they are just above .500 at 41-38 on the road. Heading into today’s game, the Astros have gone 6-4 over their last 10. As the favorite, the Astros are 67-51 this season, and they are 24-22 as the favorite on the road. Houston’s overall series record is 27-22-2 this year.
When the Astros are on the road, they have a run line record of 44-35, which is better than their overall mark. They have a run line record of 27-15 as the underdog and 55-63 as the favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.7, while it is -3.1 in losing games.
When the Astros are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8 runs, which is lower than their combined run average of 8.6 runs per game. Overall, the over/under record for Houston games this season is 65-89, with an average line of 8 runs. When the line is set at 8 runs, the over/under record is 15-14-2. This season, 57.5% of their games have had higher lines than 8 runs, while 23.1% have had lower lines.
Right-hander Justin Verlander gets the start for the Astros today as he faces the Guardians on the road. He has made 16 starts this year and has a record of 4-6 with a 5.55 ERA. Verlander’s WHIP for the season is 1.40. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up six earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Verlander’s ERA at home is 9.44 compared to 4.6 on the road. This year, he has allowed a total of 14 home runs.
Heading into today’s game, the Astros offense is 11th in the league in runs scored, averaging 4.6 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up an average of 4.9 runs per contest. Overall, Houston is batting .262 as a team, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. They also do a great job of putting the ball in play, as their team strikeout rate is the 3rd best in the MLB.
Yordan Alvarez has been a big power threat for the Astros this season, as his 35 homers are the best mark on the team and 8th best in the league. Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve have also been key run producers this season, with 26 and 20 homers, respectively. Bregman has been hot of late, going 13/38 in his last 10 games with three homers.
Guardians Records & Stats
Cleveland comes into today’s game vs. the Astros with an overall record of 92-68, which is good for a six-game lead in the AL Central. The Guardians lead the Tigers in the division and are 50-29 at home this season. On the road, Cleveland has gone 42-39 this season.
As the favorite, the Guardians have gone 64-35 this year, and they are 28-33 as the underdog. Cleveland’s overall series record is 29-16-6, and they are 6-4 over their last 10 games overall.
One of the most consistent teams against the run line this season has been the Cleveland Guardians, who have posted a run line record of 82-78. Their average run margin for the season is +0.6 runs per game, and they have been slightly better at home, where they are 39-40 against the run line. They have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 36-25, compared to 46-53 as the favorite.
Today, the Cleveland Guardians are hosting the Houston Astros in a game with an over/under line of 8 runs. The Guardians’ games have averaged 8.3 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 68-81. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 13-21-6. Overall, 44.4% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs, and their current under streak is at 4 games.
Ben Lively gets the start for the Guardians today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in five innings of work. In that outing, he only gave up two hits and issued three walks. Lively has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 13-9 with a 3.80 ERA. Looking at his home/away splits, he is 8-2 at home with a 3.96 ERA compared to 5-7 on the road with a 3.95 ERA. So far, he has turned in nine quality starts and is averaging 6.98 strikeouts per nine innings.
Jose Ramirez has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/27 in his last seven games, including three homers and eight RBIs. For the season, he is batting .277 with a team-high 38 homers and 115 RBIs, which is 3rd best in the league. Josh Naylor is also a power threat in the lineup, as he has 31 homers this season, which is 11th best in the MLB.
As a team, the Guardians are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are batting .238 overall. At home, they are averaging 4.7 runs per contest. Overall, they are 10th in home runs and have been good at avoiding strikeouts. However, they are near the bottom of the league in terms of walks and have the worst BABIP in the league.