San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick & Prediction 9/26/24
Joe Musgrove gets the start for the Padres on Thursday, as they are on the road to face the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. The Dodgers are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -125 compared to the Padres at +106. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
This NL West matchup has a start time of 10:10 PM ET, and the Dodgers are leading the division with a record of 94-64. The Padres are 2nd in the NL West with an overall record of 91-67.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS VS SAN DIEGO PADRES BETTING PICK
The Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline -125
This game will be played at Dodger Stadium at 10:10 ET on Thursday, September 26th.
HOW TO BET THE PADRES VS DODGERS:
- We have the Dodgers winning by a score of 5 to 4
- However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Padres to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Dodgers vs Padres series. Los Angeles went into the matchup as the slight favorites at -139 and squeaked out a 4-3 win. Heading into the game, the Dodgers had won the first two games of the series.
San Diego wasted a good outing from Dylan Cease, as he gave up just three earned runs in five innings of work for the Padres. Jeremiah Estrada took the loss. Alex Vesia got the win out of the bullpen for the Dodgers as Jack Flaherty went five innings, giving up three earned runs.
Offensively, the Dodgers were led by Shohei Ohtani, Gavin Lux, and Freddie Freeman, as they were the only three Dodgers hitters to have more than one hit. Ohtani. San Diego’s top hitter was Fernando Tatis Jr., who went 2/3 with a home run.
Padres Records & Stats
With an overall record of 91-67, the Padres are three games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. San Diego is 25-23 against other teams in the NL West. The Padres have played well recently, going 8-2 over their last 10 games, and they are coming off a series win over the Giants.
San Diego has won three straight series, and their overall series record is 29-15-6 this year. As the road underdog, the Padres have gone 24-17 this year, and they are 46-31 overall on the road. At home, the Padres are 45-36 this season.
The Padres have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 82-76 overall. They have been particularly good on the road, where they are 49-28 against the run line. San Diego’s average run margin for the season is +0.6, but it jumps to +1.2 on the road. The Padres have covered the run line in their last two road games and are on a three-game run line win streak as the underdog.
The Padres have an over/under record of 80-74 on the season, and their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs per game, and when the line has been set at 8.5 runs, they have gone over 19 times and under 16 times. San Diego has had 25 games with an over/under line of 8.5 runs, which is 15.8% of their games this season. Their current under streak is at 3 games.
Joe Musgrove gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Dodgers on the road. He has made 18 starts this season and has a record of 6-5 with a 3.95 ERA. Musgrove’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.19. In his last outing, Musgrove didn’t allow a run in six innings of work, finishing with a no-decision. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight starts. Musgrove has a total of nine quality starts this season and is averaging 9.16 strikeouts per nine innings.
San Diego comes into today’s game as the league’s top-hitting team, with a team batting average of .264. They also have the best team strikeout rate in the league and have been one of the top home run hitting teams in the league. Overall, the Padres are 8th in the league in scoring at 4.7 runs per game.
Manny Machado is not only the Padres’ leader in home runs this season, but his 104 RBIs are also the best mark in the league. He is batting .275 for the season but has gone just 6/26 in his last seven games. Luis Arraez and Jurickson Profar have also been key run producers for the Padres this season, as they have 44 and 85 RBIs, respectively.
Dodgers Records & Stats
With a record of 94-64, the Dodgers lead the NL West by three games over the Padres. Los Angeles is 27-21 against other teams in the division and have won two straight series. Their overall series record is 30-16-4 this year.
At home, the Dodgers are 51-29 this year and 43-35 on the road. As the favorite, the Dodgers are 89-52 this year and 5-12 as the underdog. Los Angeles is 7-3 across their last 10 games and are currently tied with the Padres in their series.
When the Dodgers win, they do so by an average of 3.7 runs per game, which is the best in the league. They have a run line record of 78-80 on the season, and they are 71-70 against the run line as the favorite. They have a run line record of 39-41 at home and 39-39 on the road. Their average run differential is +0.8 runs per game.
The Dodgers are playing at home against the Padres today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Dodgers games this season is 9.4 runs, and their over/under record is 87-67. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 35-26. Overall, 31.0% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, and their current under streak is at 2 games.
Walker Buehler is looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Rockies, as he gave up four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. In that outing, he gave up five hits, one walk, and one home run. Against the Padres, Buehler will look to pitch more like he did on September 15th vs. the Braves, where he gave up just one earned run in six innings of work. Buehler’s ERA for the season is 5.63, and he has a record of 1-6. Looking at his home/away splits, Buehler’s ERA at home is 5.15 compared to 7.26 on the road.
Shohei Ohtani has been on a tear of late, going 21/42 with six homers over his last 10 games. For the season, he is batting .303 with a league-leading 125 RBIs and 53 homers, which is also the best mark in the league. Teoscar Hernandez is also a significant power threat for the Dodgers, as he is 2nd on the team with 31 homers and has gone deep in three straight games. Hernandez is batting .269 for the season.
As a team, the Dodgers are 2nd in scoring at 5.1 runs per game and have been even better on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. They are also one of the league’s top home run-hitting clubs and have the best isolated power number in the league. Overall, they are the top slugging team in the league.