New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick & Prediction 8/22/24
At 9:40 PM ET, the Mets and Padres square off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at PETCO Park in San Diego, and the Padres are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -154. The money line odds for a Mets win are at +131, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs.
Luis Severino will start for the Mets, and he is facing off against Dylan Cease for the Padres. The Mets are 3rd in the NL East, while the Padres are 3rd in the NL West.
SAN DIEGO PADRES VS NEW YORK METS BETTING PICK
The Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline -154
This game will be played at PETCO Park at 9:40 ET on Thursday, August 22nd.
HOW TO BET THE METS VS PADRES:
- We have the Padres winning by a score of 6 to 5
- However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Mets to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over
Mets Records & Stats
New York’s last game came in their 4-3 win over the Orioles to close out their series. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -142. It got tense at the end, as the Orioles pulled to within one run in the 8th, but Edwin Diaz was able to close things out and pick up the save.
Sean Manaea put together a good start for the Mets, going seven innings and giving up just three runs on three hits. He also issued only one walk and struck out nine Orioles batters. The Mets’s offense was carried by Francisco Lindor, who went 2/4 with a homer and a run scored.
The Mets are 66-61 overall, putting them 3rd in the NL East, 8.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. This season, they have gone 22-17 in divisional matchups. New York is opening a series vs. the Padres today, and they won their most recent series vs. the Orioles.
At home, the Mets are 35-33 this season, and they are 31-28 on the road. As the underdog, the Mets have dropped three straight, and they are 16-15 as road underdogs this year. New York’s overall series record is 21-16-7, and they have won two straight series.
Despite their overall run line record being below .500, the Mets have been a profitable team to bet on the run line when they are the underdog. Their run line record as the underdog is 28-21, while their run line record as the favorite is just 31-47. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.6, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.5.
The Mets are on the road against the Padres today, and the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average in Mets games this season is 9.3 runs, and their over/under record is 64-59. The average over/under line in Mets games is 8 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 12-13. In 71.7% of Mets games this season, the over/under line has been set higher than 7.5 runs.
Luis Severino is looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. In that outing vs. the Marlins, he went 9 innings and gave up just 4 hits. Looking back further, Severino had given up at least 4 earned runs in three straight starts before that outing. His overall record is 8-6, and he has an ERA of 3.91. Opponents are batting .228 off Severino this season. The right-hander has one complete game shutout this year.
Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ top power threats this season, with Alonso leading the team with 27 homers and Lindor right behind him with 25. Lindor has also been the team’s top run producer, with 73 RBIs. Over his last 10 games, Lindor has gone 15/41 with three homers and six RBIs. Mark Vientos has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 12/34 with three homers and seven RBIs in his last nine games.
As a team, the Mets are averaging 4.8 runs per game and have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are 5th in home runs and have the 8th best team batting average in the league. New York is also among the league leaders in walks and have the 8th best slugging percentage in the league.
Padres Records & Stats
The Padres will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Twins with an 11-4 loss. San Diego was actually the slight favorite at home going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Twins scored seven times in the 4th.
Offensively, the Padres only had four fewer hits than the Twins but scored just four runs. Three of their runs came in the 4th inning, and the other came in the 5th. Jackson Merrill had a big game, going 2/4 with a homer and two RBIs. However, the Padres really missed out on some big opportunities, as Merrill’s homer was the only one they hit with runners on base.
San Diego is set to host the Mets with an overall record of 72-56, and they are four games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. The Padres are in 3rd place in the division and are currently 20-20 in divisional matchups. San Francisco is between the Padres and Dodgers, 11.5 games out of first place.
At home, the Padres are 35-30 this season, and they have been really good on the road, going 37-26. So far, they have been a bit better as the underdog compared to the favorite, as they are 27-22 as the underdog. As for their record as the favorite, the Padres are 45-34 this year. San Diego’s overall series record is 26-14-3, and they won their most recent series vs. the Twins.
San Diego has been a solid run line bet this season, going 67-61 overall. However, they have been much better on the road, going 41-22 compared to just 26-39 at home. They have been a better run line bet as an underdog, going 34-15 compared to just 33-46 as the favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.7, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.5.
The San Diego Padres are playing host to the New York Mets today, and oddsmakers have set the over/under line at 7.5 runs. The Padres have seen their games go over the total in 60.2% of their games this season, and their games have averaged a combined 9.0 runs per game. The over has hit in three straight games for the Padres.
San Diego is sending right-hander Dylan Cease to the mound today vs. the Mets. Cease has made 26 starts this season and has a record of 12-9. His ERA is 3.46, along with a WHIP of 1.02. Cease has done a good job of keeping the ball in the park this season, as he has just one shutout and one complete game. In his last outing, Cease gave up three earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work. He got the win in that outing. Cease has made 15 appearances on the road, going 7-4 with a 4.55 ERA. At home, he is 5-5 with a 3.29 ERA.
So far this season, the Padres are the top-hitting team in the league with a batting average of .265. They have also been one of the league’s best power-hitting teams, as they are 11th in home runs and have the league’s best slugging percentage. San Diego’s offense is averaging 4.8 runs per game and has been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest.
Jurickson Profar and Manny Machado are the Padres’ top home run hitters this season, with each of them having gone deep 20 times. Profar is also leading the team with 76 RBIs, while Machado is right behind him at 73. Over his last six games, Machado is batting .273 with two home runs.