TENNIS: Preview of Weekend Event: Cincinnati Open
The Cincinnati Open is an ATP 1000 event held on outdoor hardcourts and features the majority of the top players in the world, with the exception of defending champion and 2024 Olympic gold medalist Novak Djokovic. The tournament started late on Tuesday, meaning we’re only into the Round of 16 as of Friday. Here’s a recap of early round action and what to expect this weekend.
Recap of Early Action
There have already been a few upsets in the first two rounds with four of the top-10 seeds already eliminated from contention. Tommy Paul, the 10th seed, lost in the first round to Flavio Cobolli. His compatriot Taylor Fritz, the 11th seed, also lost in the first round against wild card Brandon Nakashima. Daniil Medvedev, Grigor Dimitrov, and Stefanos Tsitsipas are the other top-10 seeds out of the Cincinnati Open.
Medvedev, who was one of the top eight seeds to receive a first-round bye, lost his opening match 6-7 (2), 4-6 against Jiri Lehecka. Dimitrov also lost his first match, losing in three sets in the second round against Fabian Marozsan, while Tsitsipas lost in the second round to Jack Draper after beating Jan-Lennard Struff in the first round.
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Updated Cincinnati Open Odds
Carlos Alcaraz +120
Jannik Sinner +175
Alexander Zverev +550
Holger Rune +1800
Andrey Rublev +2000
Jack Draper +2500
Ben Shelton +2800
Frances Tiafoe +3300
Hubert Hurkacz +3300
Felix Auger-Aliassime +4000
Weekend Matches
Brandon Nakashima (+180) vs. Andrey Rublev (-230)
Rublev is the sixth-ranked player in the world and in the midst of a strong stretch of play that includes reaching the final at the National Bank Open in Canada. He is 49-24 in the last 52 weeks and is 7-3 in his last 10 matches, including a Round of 32 victory over Zhizhen Zhang in straight sets. Nakashima has wins over Arthur Fils and Fritz and typically performs well in hardcourt tournaments in the US.
Nakshima is a good upset pick in this match, with the winner moving on to the quarter-finals to play either Jordan Thompson or world No. 1 Jannik Sinner. Rublev beat Nakashima last week in Montreal, so the American is going to be motivated to return the favor.
Frances Tiafoe (-120) vs. Jiri Lehecka (-115)
Lehecka and Frances Tiafoe meet for the second time on the ATP Tour on Friday in Cincinnati. Tiafoe won the first match in straight sets in the BOSS Open in Stuttgart last year and is a strong pick to prevail once again. The American, ranked No. 27 in the world, is 6-4 in his last 10 matches and coming off impressive straight set wins over 2024 Olympic bronze medalist Lorenzo Musetti and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Lehecka, meanwhile, is coming off an upset win over fourth seed Medvedev and is playing for the first time since the Mutua Madrid Open in April. Because of potential injury or fatigue concerns this far into the tournament, I’d be more comfortable backing Tiafoe, who would play the winner of Hubert Hurkacz and Cobolli in the quarter-finals.
Finals Prediction
At such unfavorable odds, it’s hard to back either Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz. Sinner is also dealing with some rust after missing the Olympics due to tonsilitis and suffering an early round loss in Canada, while Alcaraz isn’t typically as strong on hardcourts. This is shaping up well for a player like Alex Zverev to make a run. The German has a favorable path with Pablo Careno Busta and Ben Shelton/Marozsan in his way of making the semifinals.
Pick: Zverev def. Alcaraz