Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick & Prediction 7/5/24
There looks to be a chance for light rain in Cincinnati on Friday, where the Reds and Tigers face off at Great American Ball Park. The money line odds have the Tigers at -106 compared to the Reds at -113, and the over/under line is at 9 runs.
First pitch for this interleague matchup is set for 7:10 PM ET, and APLTV will be carrying the game on TV. On the mound, Reese Olson is starting for the Tigers, while the Reds are going with Carson Spiers. The Reds are 3-0 in their last three games, while the Tigers have won two of their last three.
CINCINNATI REDS VS DETROIT TIGERS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline -113
This game will be played at Great American Ball Park at 7:10 ET on Friday, July 5th.
HOW TO BET THE TIGERS VS REDS:
- We have the Reds winning by a score of 6 to 4
- If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Reds to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 10 runs and like the over
Tigers Records & Stats
The Tigers will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Twins with a 12-3 loss. Detroit was the +153 underdog on the money line going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Tigers, as they got on the board with a run in the 1st inning but gave up the lead right away as the Twins scored two runs in the bottom of the first.
Kenta Maeda had a rough outing, giving up nine earned runs on nine hits and issuing three walks. He only lasted 3 2/3 innings, taking the loss. Detroit’s offense scored their other two runs in the 2nd inning but didn’t have another hit after that.
Detroit is 39-48 overall this season, and they are 16 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. So far, they have gone 13-12 in AL Central games. The Tigers are on the road today, and they are 20-26 on the road compared to 19-22 at home.
The Tigers dropped two of three games to the Twins in their most recent series. So far, they have an overall series record of 10-14-4, and they have lost three straight series. As the underdog, the Tigers are 20-29 this year, and they are an even 19-19 as the favorite. Detroit’s overall record is a result of going just 3-7 over their last ten games.
When the Tigers win, they win big, with an average run margin of +3.8 runs per game. But when they lose, they lose big, with an average run margin of -3.6 runs per game. Their run line record is 37-50, and they are 23-23 against the run line on the road. They have lost three straight against the run line as the favorite, and overall, they are 9-29 against the run line as the favorite.
The Detroit Tigers are on the road today against the Cincinnati Reds. The over/under line for the game is set at 9 runs. The combined run average for Tigers games this season is 8.5. Overall, the over/under record for Detroit is 47-38. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, the Tigers have a record of 5-3. So far this season, only 4.6% of Detroit’s games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs or higher. The Tigers have hit the over in their last five games.
Right-hander Reese Olson is starting for the Tigers today as he faces the Reds on the road. He has made 16 starts this season and has a record of 2-8 with a 3.33 ERA. Overall, opponents are batting .234 off Olson this season. The last time he took the mound, he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in six innings of work. Before that outing, he had picked up the win in back-to-back starts. Olson has turned in eight quality starts this year and is averaging 8.16 strikeouts per nine innings.
Heading into today’s game, the Tigers offense is averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 21st in the MLB. They are also near the bottom of the league in most major offensive categories, including batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Detroit’s offense is led by Riley Greene, who is hitting .259 for the season and has a team-high 43 RBIs. Greene is also 10th in the league with 16 homers.
Greene is currently on a three-game hitting streak and has gone 9/36 in his last 10 games. Justyn-Henry Malloy is also on a four-game hitting streak and has gone 7/26 in his last eight games. Carson Kelly has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 5/17 in his last five games, including two homers.
Reds Records & Stats
The Reds’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Yankees, closing out their series with an 8-4 win. After allowing one run to the Yankees in the 2nd inning, the Reds responded with a run of their own and added three more in the 3rd. Cincinnati went on to close things out with another three-run inning in the 7th.
Starting for the Reds was Frankie Montas, who picked up the win and went five innings, giving up just two runs on four hits. He only had four strikeouts in the outing and got the win.
Cincinnati will host the Tigers today with an overall record of 42-45, which has them 3rd in the NL Central. The Reds are 9.5 games behind the Brewers for the division lead. They closed out their series vs. the Yankees with three straight wins. So far, they are 12-14 in divisional games.
At home, the Reds are 20-23 this season while going 22-22 on the road. As the underdog, the Reds are 22-29 this season, and they are 20-16 when favored. Cincinnati’s overall series record is 9-16-3, and they have dropped two straight series at home.
When betting the run line, the Cincinnati Reds have been a good bet on the road, going 30-14, but not so much at home, where they are 18-25. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 32-19, compared to 16-20 as the favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.6 runs per game, while it is -2.9 runs per game in losses.
The Cincinnati Reds have an over/under record of 38-46 this season, with the average over/under line set at 9 runs. Their games have averaged a combined 8.4 runs per game this season. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, the Reds have gone 1-13-2 to the under this season. Overall, 50.6% of their games have had over/under lines set at less than 9 runs.
Carson Spiers gets the start for the Reds today and has made two quality starts in a row. His most recent outing came on June 29th against the Cardinals, where he picked up the win. In that outing, he went six innings, giving up just one earned run on four hits. Looking at his overall numbers, Spiers has made three starts and eight appearances. His record for the season is 2-1, and he has an ERA of 3.13. Opposing batters are hitting .242 off Spiers this season. So far, he has a BB/9 figure of 1.69 compared to 6.99 strikeouts per nine innings.
Elly De La Cruz has had a solid season at the plate for the Reds, batting .252 with a team-leading 15 homers. However, he has struggled of late, going 5/24 in his last six games. Spencer Steer is also near the top of the Reds’ home run leaderboard, but he has also struggled of late, going 4/20 in his last six games. Steer’s 54 RBIs are the best mark on the team and 13th in the league.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.3 runs per game and have been a better offensive team on the road compared to at home. Overall, they are just 15th in home runs and are batting a collective .227, which is 21st in the league. Their team on-base percentage of .304 is also below the league average.