San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick & Prediction 6/30/24

The Red Sox will be looking to end a three-game losing streak when they face off against the Padres on Sunday at Fenway Park in Boston. However, the Red Sox are not the heavy favorites on the money line, as their odds sit at -125 compared to the Padres at +106. This interleague matchup has an over/under line of 10 runs.

First pitch for this one is set for 1:35 PM ET. Josh Winckowski is starting for the Red Sox, while the Padres are going with Matt Waldron. San Diego is currently on a five-game winning streak, and they are 2nd in the NL West, while the Red Sox are 3rd in the AL East.

BOSTON RED SOX VS SAN DIEGO PADRES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline -125

This game will be played at Fenway Park at 1:35 ET on Sunday, June 30th.

HOW TO BET THE PADRES VS RED SOX:

• We have the Red Sox winning by a score of 6 to 5
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Padres to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over

San Diego cruised to an easy 11-1 win over the Red Sox in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 5th inning, scoring six of their eleven runs. As for the Red Sox, they scored their only run in the 6th. Heading into the game, the Padres were at +119 on the money line.

Michael King pitched well for the Padres in this one, going six innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with six strikeouts and got the win. On the other side, Tanner Houck only went 4 1/3 innings for the Red Sox, giving up seven earned runs.

Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill each homered for the Padres, while Brett Sullivan went 2/5 with two RBIs and two runs scored. Luis Arraez also had a three-hit game at the top of the Padres’ lineup.

Padres Records & Stats

San Diego is on a five-game winning streak, and they are 46-41 overall this season. The Padres are 7.5 games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead, and they are 2nd in the division. So far, they have gone 14-15 in divisional games.

The Padres have been really good over the last two weeks, going 9-1 in their last 10 games. San Diego has won two straight series and has an overall series record of 15-10-3 this year. As the road underdog, the Padres are 14-11 this year, and they have won three straight on the road as the underdog. San Diego’s overall road record is 22-19.

San Diego is 29-12 against the run line on the road this season, covering in four straight games and in six straight as an underdog. The Padres have an average run margin of +1.1 on the road this season, compared to -0.2 at home. They are 46-41 against the run line overall, with an average run margin of +0.4 runs per game.

San Diego Padres games have averaged 9.0 runs per game this season, but they have been trending over the total lately, with the over hitting in nine straight games. Their over/under record for the season is 47-39, and their games have had an average total of 8 runs. Today’s over/under line is set at 10 runs, which is the highest line for a Padres game this season. Only 3.4% of their games have had over/under lines set at 10 or higher.

San Diego is sending right-hander Matt Waldron to the mound today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. Waldron has made 16 starts this season and has a record of 5-6 with a 3.42 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, opponents are batting .221 this season. Waldron’s last outing came against the Nationals, where he finished with a no-decision. In that start, he went six innings and gave up two earned runs on five hits. Before that outing, he had won two straight starts. One thing to note is that Waldron has given up at least one homer in three straight outings.

San Diego has one of the league’s best offenses, as they are 5th in home runs and have the 2nd best team batting average in the league. Coming into the game, they are also 9th in runs scored (4.7 per game) and have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. The Padres have been especially good at avoiding strikeouts this season, as they have the 2nd fewest strikeouts in the league.

Jurickson Profar comes into the game with a 12 game hitting streak and is 8th in the league with 55 RBIs. He is also 15th in the league with 11 home runs. Profar is batting .315 for the season, which is the 2nd best mark on the team. Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the Padres with 14 homers and is 6th in the league in RBIs (36). Manny Machado has also been swinging a hot bat, going 8/21 in his last five games with three homers.

Red Sox Records & Stats

Boston will be looking to avoid dropping their fourth straight game today, as they have lost the first two games of their series vs. the Padres. Currently, the Red Sox are 9.5 games behind the Orioles for the AL East lead. Overall, they are 43-39 and have gone 11-10 in divisional games.

At home, the Red Sox are 19-23 this season compared to 24-16 on the road. As the favorite, Boston is 22-18 this year and 21-21 as the underdog. So far, they have an overall series record of 12-9-5, and they have won two straight series on the road.

The Red Sox have been a much better run line bet on the road this season, going 23-17 compared to 14-28 at home. They have been an underdog in 42 games, going 25-17 against the run line in those contests. The average run margin in their wins is +4.3, while it is -4.0 in their losses.

The Red Sox have been a part of 77 games this season with an over/under line, and only two of those games have had a line of 10 runs. In those two games, the over has not hit. The Red Sox have hit the over in five straight games, and their games have averaged 8.9 runs per game this season.

Right-hander Josh Winckowski is getting the start for the Red Sox today and has made three starts this year. In 13 appearances, he has a record of 1-1 and an ERA of 3.26. Winckowski’s WHIP for the season is 1.48, and opponents are batting .270 off him this year. The last time he pitched was on June 25th out of the bullpen, where he went six innings, giving up two earned runs, and had eight strikeouts. In that outing, he gave up one homer. Winckowski has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings.

Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox offense is averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 12th in the league. They have been a better offense on the road this season, averaging 5 runs per game. Overall, they are the league’s 9th best home run-hitting team and have the best team BABIP in the MLB. As a team, they are also near the top of the league in team batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

Rafael Devers has been the Red Sox’s top power threat this season, as his 17 homers lead the team and are 9th in the league. Devers is also batting .282 for the season and has gone deep three times in his last nine games. Jarren Duran has also hit three homers in this stretch, batting .366. Overall, Duran is batting .287 for the season, and his eight homers is 3rd on the team.