Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Prediction 6/30/24

At 11:35 AM ET, the Pirates and Braves square off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at Truist Park in Atlanta, and the Braves are favored on the money line at -179. The money line odds for a Pirates win are sitting at +151, and they are 3rd in the NL Central with a record of 39-43, while the Braves are 2nd in the NL East at 46-35.

Scattered clouds are in the forecast in Atlanta on Sunday, where the temperature will be in the mid to upper 70s. Bailey Falter is starting for the Pirates, and he is facing off against Spencer Schwellenbach for the Braves.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES VS ATLANTA BRAVES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline +151

This game will be played at Truist Park at 11:35 ET on Sunday, June 30th.

HOW TO BET THE PIRATES VS BRAVES:

• We have the Pirates winning by a score of 5 to 4
• If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Pirates to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the under

The most recent game o of this Pirates and Braves series came right down to the end, as the Pirates rallied late but still fell short with the Braves winning 2-1 at home. Heading into the game, the Braves were favored at -144 on the money line.

Max Fried pitched well for the Braves in this one, going six innings and giving up just one run. He finished with four strikeouts but issued three walks. Daysbel Hernandez closed things out for the Braves, getting the win.

Paul Skenes had a good outing for the Pirates, going six innings and giving up just one run. He finished with nine strikeouts but allowed one home run. Kyle Nicolas took the loss.

Pirates Records & Stats

The Pirates are 39-43 overall and trail the Brewers by 9.5 games in the NL Central. They Pirates have lost two straight games, and they are losing the series vs. the Braves 0-2. So far, they have gone 12-11 in divisional games.

At home, the Pirates are 19-20 this season and 20-23 on the road. As the underdog, Pittsburgh is 24-25 this season compared to 15-18 as the favorite. Looking at their overall series record, the Pirates are 11-11-4 and have won two straight series on the road.

When betting on the Pirates’ run line, it’s been profitable to back them as the underdog, as they are 33-16 against the run line in those games. They have been a better bet on the road, where they are 25-18 against the run line. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.0, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.6.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are on the road today against the Atlanta Braves, and the over/under line is set at 9.5 runs. While the Pirates’ games have averaged 8.5 runs this season, their over/under record is 38-43. The average line for their games is 8 runs, and their record when the line is set at 9.5 runs is 1-1. Only 3.7% of their games have had higher lines than 9.5 runs, and their under streak is at 3 games.

Pittsburgh is sending Bailey Falter to the mound today, and he comes into the game with a record of 3-6 and an ERA of 4.00. So far this season, he has made 15 starts, seven of which were quality starts. In his 15 appearances, Falter has a WHIP of 1.14 and is averaging 5.83 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Falter took the loss, giving up four earned runs in four innings of work vs. the Reds. Before that, he had given up at least five earned runs in three straight starts.

For the Pirates to get their offense going, they will need to see some improvement from their team batting average of .228 and on-base percentage of just .297. So far, they are averaging 4 runs per game, which is 24th in the majors. At home, they are averaging just 3.8 runs per game.

One bright spot for the Pirates has been the play of Bryan Reynolds, who is hitting .278 for the season and has gone 11/32 with three homers over his last eight games. Reynolds’ 13 homers is the best mark on the team and 5th in the league. He also leads the team with 46 RBIs. Oneil Cruz and Andrew McCutchen are tied for 2nd on the team with 11 homers.

Braves Records & Stats

With an overall record of 46-35, the Braves are seven games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. The Braves have won two straight games, and these two wins have come in the first two games of their series with the Pirates. So far, they have a series record of 15-10-2.

At home, the Braves have gone 26-13 this season, and they are an even 20-22 on the road. As the favorite, the Braves are 43-29 and 3-6 as the underdog. Atlanta has also been good at home as the favorite, going 26-13 this year.

When the Braves win, they do so by an average of 3.7 runs per game. That has helped them to a 39-42 run-line record this season. They are 18-21 against the run line at home, where they have a scoring margin of 0.8 runs per game. They are 21-21 against the run line on the road, where they have a scoring margin of 0.6 runs per game.

The Braves have played in 78 games this season, and only five of them have had higher over/under lines than today’s 9.5. Their games have averaged eight runs per game, and their over/under record is 29-49. Their games have had an average over/under line of nine runs, and they have gone 4-4 when the line has been set at 9.5. They have gone under in four straight games.

Spencer Schwellenbach is getting the start today for the Braves and will be facing the Pirates. In his last start, Schwellenbach took the loss against the Cardinals, going 5 innings and giving up 4 earned runs. He started the season with a win over the Tigers, where he went 6 innings and struck out 7.

Marcell Ozuna is having a strong season for the Braves, as he is batting .300 with 21 home runs and 67 RBIs, which is 3rd in the league. He is also 5th in the league in home runs. Ozuna comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak. Matt Olson is also a power threat in the lineup, as he has 12 homers this season but is batting just .241.

Over their last nine games, Austin Riley and Jarred Kelenic have both gone deep three times, with Riley batting .303 and Kelenic hitting .382. Kelenic also has eight RBIs in this stretch. As a team, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 15th in the league.