Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Betting Pick & Prediction 6/13/24
At 7:10 PM ET, the Marlins and Mets face off in an NL East matchup. This one is being played at Citi Field in New York, and the Mets are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -197. The money line odds for a Marlins win are sitting at +165, and the over/under line is at 8.5 runs.
Miami will be starting Roddery Munoz, while the Mets are sending Luis Severino to the mound. The game can be seen on BSFL, and the Marlins are 5th in the NL East with a record of 23-44, while the Mets are 29-37 and are 4th in the division.
MIAMI MARLINS VS NEW YORK METS BETTING PICK
The Pick: OVER 8.5 Runs
This game will be played at Citi Field at 7:10 ET on Thursday, June 13th.
HOW TO BET THE MARLINS VS METS:
- We have the Mets winning by a score of 5 to 4
- However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Marlins to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over
New York cruised to a 10-4 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a huge 2nd inning, scoring three runs, and added on five more in the 7th. As for the Marlins, they scored their only two runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Mets were favored at -157 on the money line.
David Peterson only went five innings for the Mets but gave up just one hit and one earned run. He finished the game with just one strikeout and allowed two walks. Braxton Garrett struggled on the mound for the Marlins, giving up four earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work.
Tyrone Taylor had a big game at the plate for the Mets, going 4/5 with an RBI. Starling Marte and Harrison Bader each had two hits and drove in two runs. Francisco Lindor also had a two-hit game and scored twice for New York’s offense.
Marlins Records & Stats
Miami is 23-44 overall and trail the Phillies by 23 games in the NL East. So far, they are just 5-13 in divisional games. The Marlins have dropped four straight series and are 5-15-1 in series this year.
At home, the Marlins are just 12-25 this year and are 11-19 on the road. As the underdog, the Marlins are 20-32 this year, compared to 3-12 as the favorite. Miami has dropped two straight and are just 3-7 over their last 10 games.
When the Marlins have won this season, they’ve done so by an average of 3.1 runs per game. They’re 27-40 against the run line overall, but they’ve been much better on the road, going 16-14. Miami has been a run line underdog in 52 games and an underdog in 15 games, and they’ve gone 26-26 against the run line in those games.
Despite the Miami Marlins’ combined run average of 8.7, the over/under line for their game against the New York Mets is set at 8.5 runs. Miami has a 36-30 over/under record on the season, and their games have averaged 8 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, the Marlins have gone over in 14 of 24 games, and only 10 of their games this season have had higher over/under lines than 8.5 runs.
Roddery Muñoz will be making his third start of the season for the Marlins, and it will be his second road start. He has taken a loss in each of his first two starts, with his most recent outing coming against the Guardians. In that game, he went 4 innings and gave up 4 runs, all of which were earned. In his first start of the season, he picked up a win vs. the Rockies, going 6 innings and striking out 7.
So far this season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.6 runs per game, which is 28th in the league. This is a result of being one of the worst home run hitting teams in the league and having the worst isolated power mark in the league. Miami’s team batting average of .233 is 16th in the league, and they are also near the top of the league in strikeouts and walks. However, their on-base percentage of .285 is 23rd in the league.
Bryan De La Cruz and Jazz Chisholm Jr. have been the Marlins’ top power threats so far this season, with De La Cruz’s 11 homers leading the team and Chisholm Jr. right behind him with nine. De La Cruz is also batting .249 and has gone 9/35 in his last nine games. He is also on a three-game hitting streak. Chisholm Jr. comes into the game with a team-high 32 RBIs.
Mets Records & Stats
New York is 29-37 overall and 16.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. So far, they are 10-10 in divisional games. The Mets are at home today, where they are 14-23 this season. They have been better on the road, going 15-14.
The Mets have won two straight series on the road, and their overall series record is 8-12-3. As the home favorite, the Mets are 11-13 this year and 16-17 overall as the favorite. They come into today’s game with an overall record of 6-4 in their last ten.
When betting the run line, the Mets have been a better play on the road than at home, with an 18-11 record on the run line away from Citi Field compared to 12-25 at home. They have also been a better play as the underdog, going 18-15 against the run line in those games compared to 12-21 as the favorite. Their average run differential is -0.4 runs per game, but that number jumps to -0.9 at home.
The Mets have a combined run average of 9.3, and their over/under record is 34-30. Today’s over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, and when the line has been set at 8.5 runs this season, the over/under record is 8-5. Overall, 21.2% of the Mets’ games this season have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs.
Luis Severino has made 12 starts this season and has a record of 4-2 with an ERA of 3.25. So far, he has turned in five quality starts and is averaging 7.25 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Severino went eight innings, giving up just one earned run and picking up the win. Before that, he had given up at least one homer in three straight starts. The right-hander has been much better at home, coming in with a record of 3-1 and an ERA of 2.85 compared to 1-1 with a 4.28 ERA on the road.
So far this season, the Mets are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 13th in the league. They have been a much better offensive team on the road, averaging 5.5 runs per contest. As a team, the Mets are batting .242, which is 11th in the league, and they are also 11th in home runs. New York’s lineup has been tough to strike out, as they are 8th in the league in this category.
Over his last 10 games, Mark Vientos has gone 12/34 with two homers and 10 RBIs. This has helped him move into a tie with Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo for the team lead in RBIs. Alonso and Nimmo are also 1st and 3rd on the team in home runs, respectively. Francisco Lindor has also been swinging the bat well of late, going 12/42 with two homers in his last 10 games.