Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick & Prediction 4/21/24
At 2:10 PM from Target Field in Minneapolis, we have an American League matchup between the Tigers and Twins. Heading into Sunday’s game, the Tigers are 11-10 compared to the Twins at 7-12. Detroit is currently favored on the money line, and the over/under line is at 8 runs.
Casey Mize is starting for the Tigers, and he is facing off against Louie Varland for the Twins. You can catch this one on TV on BSDET.
MINNESOTA TWINS VS DETROIT TIGERS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Minnesota Twins Moneyline -109
This game will be played at Target Field at 2:10 ET on Sunday, April 21st.
HOW TO BET THE TIGERS VS TWINS:
- We have the Twins winning by a score of 5 to 4
- If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Twins to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Twins vs Tigers series. Minnesota went into the matchup as -143 favorites and squeaked out a 4-3 win. Detroit had a chance to tie or win the game in the 9th inning but could only muster one run.
Bailey Ober started for the Twins and picked up the win, going six innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with six strikeouts but issued a costly home run. As for the Tigers, Reese Olson got the start and took the loss, giving up two earned runs in five innings of work.
Austin Martin and Byron Buxton were the only two Twins hitters to have more than one hit. Martin. Detroit’s top hitter was Matt Vierling, who went 2/4 with an RBI.
Tigers Records & Stats
Detroit’s overall record currently sits just above .500, at 11-10, as they are on the road today vs. the Twins. In the AL Central, they are four games behind the Guardians and are 3rd in the division. So far, they have gone 6-3 against other teams in the division.
So far, Detroit has been good on the road, putting together a record of 7-3. At home, they have gone just 4-7. Detroit is coming off a series win over the Twins and, before that, were swept by the Rangers in a four-game series.
When the Tigers are on the road, they are a solid bet against the run line, going 6-4 so far this season. They have covered the run line in three straight games and are 7-4 against the run line as underdogs. Their average run differential in wins is +2.2, while their average run differential in losses is -2.8.
When the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins meet, it’s been a mixed bag in terms of over/under outcomes. The two teams have combined for an average of 7.7 runs per game this season, and the Tigers’ over/under record is 9-11. When the over/under line has been set at 8 runs, the Tigers have gone 1-2-1 in those games. Overall, 47.6% of their games have had an over/under line set at 8 runs or lower, and 33.3% have had lines set at 8 runs or higher.
Casey Mize will be making his 4th start of the season, and it will be his 2nd road start. So far, he has a no-decision in each of his first 3 outings. Mize has gone 6 innings in each of his first two starts, allowing 2 earned runs in each outing.
For the Tigers, we have Kerry Carpenter as our top projected hitter in terms of total hits and home runs. His home run projection is 9th best in the league today. Spencer Torkelson has the 2nd best home run projection on the team and 10th best in the league. Riley Greene has the 17th best total hits projection in the league today.
Twins Records & Stats
With a record of 7-12, the Twins are seven games out of the AL Central division lead. So far, they have gone just 5-6 against their divisional opponents. Minnesota heads into today’s game, having gone 1-4 over their last five games and are coming off a series loss vs the Tigers.
At home, the Twins are 2-5 compared to 5-7 on the road. Minnesota finally picked up a win at home in their most recent game at home. This season, they are just 1-8 as the underdog and have lost five straight games as the underdog.
The Twins have been a tough team to bet on this season, as they have a run line record of 8-11. They have been slightly better on the road, going 7-5 against the run line, compared to just 1-6 at home. When the Twins win, they tend to do so by a comfortable margin, with an average run differential of +3.1 in those games.
The Minnesota Twins have had a combined run average of 8.0 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 8-11. The over/under line for today’s game against the Detroit Tigers is set at 8 runs. So far this season, 52.6% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, and in games where the line was set at 8 runs, they have a 2-2 record.
Through his first three starts of the season, Louie Varland has yet to pick up a win. He has gone 5 innings in each of his first two outings and has 6 strikeouts in each of those games. However, he has given up 6 runs in each of those starts. He has given up a total of 3 home runs on the year.
For the Twins, Ryan Jeffers has the best chance to hit a home run, as his home run projection is 9th best in the league today. Alex Kirilloff is the top Twins player in terms of total hits, while Edouard Julien has the 2nd best odds on the team to hit a home run, with the 10th best odds in the league today.