The St. Louis Cardinals have not made the playoffs since 2015. Can you believe that? Despite winning at least 83 games the last three seasons, the Cardinals fell short of meaningful October baseball. That isn’t the case this season, as the Cardinals took down the NL Central for the first time since 2015, but the team from St. Louis is an underdog to Atlanta in the NLDS. The Braves are -135 to win the series at BetOnline, with +115 on the comeback.
The Braves locked up their second straight NL East title and will make back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time since 2012-13. The Braves won 94 games and were part of the first NL Wild Card Game back in 2012 and lost. They are in search of their first series win since 2001. No, that’s not a typo. The Braves have lost in the NLDS seven times and lost that Wild Card Game in 2012.
Atlanta won the NL East every season from 1991-2005, with the 1994 strike season exempted from that list because the playoffs did not happen. This probably isn’t the start of a similar dynasty, but this could very well be Atlanta’s best chance at winning a series since the early 2000s.
There is a lot to unpack about this series. The Braves would seem to have the upper hand. They have star power in Ronald ACuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman. We could even throw Ozzie Albies in that mix. The Cardinals have Paul Goldschmidt, who is coming off of a down year.
Youngsters like Mike Soroka and Max Fried garnered a lot of attention over the start of the year. Guys like Jack Flaherty were overshadowed early in the year because of the struggles to start the campaign.
The ironic thing is that the Braves, tied for the second-luckiest team in baseball by Pythagorean Win-Loss, really came back to the pack in the second half and were on par with the Cardinals. Atlanta’s vaunted offense, which was stellar in the first half, essentially performed at a league average level in the second half. The offensive numbers are nearly interchangeable between the two teams after the All-Star Break. Perception and reality are a lot different with these two teams.
To the Pyth W/L point, the Braves, despite all of their bullpen problems over the course of the season, went 28-16 in one-run games. Only the Giants and Twins had higher win percentages in that department. The 28 one-run wins for the Braves were second to San Francisco’s 38. The Cardinals were 25-22.
Both teams, though, are solid at a lot of positions. You don’t have stiffs and fringy players taking plate appearances. The 1 through 8 is pretty good for both teams. It would seem that the Braves have better starting pitching depth than the Cardinals, which is a key I will focus on in a little bit.
All in all, I would guess that there are some misperceptions about these two teams. To be honest, I fell victim to them before I dug deeper. The Braves won 97 games and the Cardinals won 91. The Cardinals are bland, but consistent, and the Braves are exciting, but had been inconsistent for a while as they built up to this point.
It makes for a great handicap.
Here are my three keys to the series:
- Cardinals Pitching
- Where’s the Offense?
- Braves Bullpen