Things could not have gone much better for the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday night. They won the Wild Card Game 5-1 to advance to the ALDS. They got five respectable innings from Charlie Morton and didn’t have to use Blake Snell or Tyler Glasnow. The top of the lineup put together by manager Kevin Cash paid huge dividends, as Yandy Diaz homered twice and Tommy Pham added a dinger of his own.
Also, it wasn’t a wasted flight to Oakland, as the Rays now stop in Houston to take on the Astros before going home for Game 3.
In order to have any chance at upsetting the Astros, who had the best record in baseball and will have home field advantage throughout their stay in the playoffs, you have to be in tip-top shape at 100%. This is something that could plague the Nationals in their series against the Dodgers, since they were forced to use Stephen Strasburg in relief in the Wild Card Game and won’t have him until Game 2 at the earliest. The Rays had to use Morton, but were able to keep Snell and Glasnow in the dugout.
It is still an uphill climb of epic proportions. The line suggests as much with Houston -300 at BetOnline. The idea of having to win at least two games against the triumvirate of Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, and Zack Greinke is daunting. It’s entirely possible that all three wins would have to come against those three guys, though AJ Hinch has not named his Game 4 starter as of yet. It would make sense to use left-hander Wade Miley against a left-handed-heavy Rays lineup, but he may not even need a fourth starter.
The Astros are really impressive. Alex Bregman was the only player to suit up for more than 150 games. Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick, and Yuli Gurriel played over 140. George Springer missed 40 games. Jose Altuve missed 38 games. Carlos Correa was limited to 75 games. Yordan Alvarez wasn’t called up until around midseason. They lost Dallas Keuchel to free agency and lost Lance McCullers and even guys like Forrest Whitley to injury. None of it mattered. The Astros won 107 games to set a franchise record and to also cross the century mark for the third straight season.
Rotation health was a big deal, as Verlander took the ball 34 times, Cole 33, and Miley 33. The revolving door of fourth and fifth starters simply meant that the team could showcase its player development prowess, with guys like Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, and Corbin Martin all making starts. Still, they felt that there was a need to add more established pitching, so Zack Greinke and Aaron Sanchez were added. Greinke was magnificent in 10 starts. Sanchez showed flashes in four, but was then lost for the season.
The Rays win on run prevention. The offense is serviceable, but the pitching staff is exceptional. If the Rays are able to limit this powerful and potent Houston lineup, they can make this a long series. If they can’t, they cannot outslug the Astros. It just won’t happen.
Run differential isn’t everything, but it is something. Houston scored 920 runs and allowed 640. Remember, I said that the Rays excel at run prevention. They allowed 650 runs. And only scored 769. Division strength plays a role here, as the Rays did have to deal with the Yankees and Red Sox 38 times, but the Rays need to find a way to do exactly what they did against Oakland. Take advantage of the rare scoring opportunities and keep the other team from cashing in.
That is far, far easier said than done against a team like the Astros.
While most Wild Card teams are at a disadvantage burning a starter, it may not be the worst thing in the world that Morton cannot pitch until Game 3. The Astros are intimately familiar with him and can take a lot of the credit for his recent resurgence. Of course, on the other hand, he is a righty against a right-handed-heavy lineup for Houston. If there is one thing the Astros lack, it is lineup balance, but when you have righties that can hit righties, it doesn’t really matter. The Astros led the league in wOBA vs. RHP at .351 and wRC+ at 123. League average for wRC+ is 100, so the Astros were 23% above league average against righties and 8% better than any other team in baseball.
Here are my three keys to the series:
- The Kitchen Sink
- Rays of Hope
- The Chess Match