Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick & Prediction 5/10/24

At 7:10 PM from Fenway Park in Boston, we have an interleague matchup between the Nationals and Red Sox. Heading into Friday’s game, the Nationals are 18-18, while the Red Sox are just above .500 at 19-18. Tanner Houck will start for the Red Sox, and he is facing off against Patrick Corbin for the Nationals.

Boston comes into this one as the heavy favorite, with money line odds of -203. The over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs. If you’re looking to watch this game on TV, it is being carried by NESN.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS VS BOSTON RED SOX BETTING PICK

The Pick: OVER 8.5 Runs

This game will be played at Fenway Park at 7:10 ET on Friday, May 10th.

HOW TO BET THE NATIONALS VS RED SOX:

• We have the Red Sox winning by a score of 5 to 4
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Nationals to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over

Nationals Records & Stats

The Nationals will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Orioles with a 7-6 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 11th inning before the Orioles scored two runs in the top of the 11th. Washington was the +147 underdog at home going into the game.

Mitchell Parker put together a good start for the Nationals, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up just two earned runs, and striking out three. However, the Nationals couldn’t close things out, and Jordan Weems took the loss out of the bullpen. The Nationals also wasted a big game from Eddie Rosario, who homered in the 2nd inning, going 2/4.

Heading into today’s road matchup vs. the Red Sox, the Nationals are at .500 with an 18-18 record. In the NL East, they are in 4th place, which is the same as the Mets, and they are seven games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have gone 5-2 in divisional games.

The Nationals have an even record both at home (7-10) and on the road (11-8) this season. As the underdog, Washington has gone 16-17 compared to 2-1 as the favorite. They are also 10-8 as the road underdog this year. The Nationals’ overall series record is 5-6-1, and they split their most recent series vs. the Orioles.

Washington has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 23-13 overall. They have been especially good on the road, going 14-5 on the run line. Their average run differential is -0.2 runs per game, but they have been able to cover the run line in games they have won, with an average margin of victory of 3.1 runs per game.

Washington’s over/under record for the season is 17-18, and the average combined run total in their games is 8.6. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5, their record is 7-7. Overall, 10 of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8.5, which is 27.8% of their games. In the games with over/under lines set at 8.5, the over has hit 50% of the time.

Left-hander Patrick Corbin gets the start for the Nationals today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. He has made seven starts this year and has yet to pick up a win, coming in with a record of 0-3 and ERA of 6.45. Corbin’s WHIP for the season is 1.80, and opponents are batting .325 this season. Corbin’s last outing came against the Blue Jays, where he went six innings, giving up three earned runs on six hits. He finished with a no-decision in that outing. Corbin has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings.

Coming into the game, the Nationals are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 18th in the league. Their team batting average of .231 is also 15th in the league. The Nationals have a few players who are near the top of the league in terms of home runs, as CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. are 1st and 4th on the team in batting average, respectively, and have 7 and 3 homers, respectively.

Luis Garcia Jr. has been on a tear of late, going 10/24 in his last seven games with two homers and 10 RBIs. Eddie Rosario is also swinging a hot bat, as he has gone 6/19 in his last seven games with two homers. Rosario also comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak.

Red Sox Records & Stats

Boston closed out their series vs. the Braves with a 5-0 loss. Heading into the game, the Red Sox were the +177 underdog. Things really got away from the Red Sox in the 1st inning, as the Braves scored four runs in the inning. Boston’s offense didn’t score their first run until the 4th.

Nick Pivetta got the start for the Red Sox and took the loss. He only lasted four innings, giving up five earned runs. Offensively, the Red Sox had seven hits but didnjson’t score a run. Connor Wong had two hits and a double.

Boston will host the Nationals today with an overall record of 19-18, and they are 5.5 games behind the Orioles in the AL East. The Red Sox dropped the final two games of their series vs. the Braves, and they are 0-3 in divisional games this year.

At home, the Red Sox are 7-9 compared to 12-9 on the road. So far, they have been the favorite in 14 games, going 9-5 in those matchups. As the underdog, Boston is 10-13 this year, and their overall series record is 6-5-1.

When the Red Sox are favored, they are just 5-9 against the run line. However, when they are the underdog, they are 14-9. Their average run margin in winning games is 4.8, while it is -3.2 in losses. The Red Sox have been a better run line team on the road, going 13-8, compared to 6-10 at home.

When the Red Sox play at home, the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs for 12 of their 58 games, which is 21.6% of the time. Their games have averaged 7.9 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 14-20. Their games have gone under the over/under line in two straight games, and their over/under record when the line is set at 8.5 runs is 7-5 for the season.

Tanner Houck gets the start for the Red Sox today and comes in with a record of 3-3 and an ERA of 1.99. So far, he has made six quality starts and has a WHIP of .97. Houck’s last outing came on May 3rd, where he took the loss, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had gone 2-0 in his previous three starts. Houck has one complete game shutout this year. Per nine innings, he is averaging 9.13 strikeouts and just 1.39 walks.

So far this season, the Red Sox offense has been pretty average, as they are 15th in runs per game (4.4) and have been even worse in terms of striking out, as they are 25th in the league in this category. However, they have been very good at putting the ball in play, as they have the league’s best BABIP. As a team, they are also near the top of the league in terms of OBP and slugging percentage.

Center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela comes into the game with a seven-game hitting streak, and he has gone 8/29 in his last eight games with one home run. For the season, he is batting just .213. Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers are also on three-game hitting streaks, with Duran hitting .323 over his last eight games and Devers at .310.