Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Pick & Prediction 1/12/25

The Buccaneers are favored on the money line at -182 as they face the Commanders on Sunday, January 12th at 8:00 ET on NBC. Washington, with a +3 point spread, is +153 on the money line. This NFC wild card round matchup is being played at Raymond James Stadium, and the over/under line is set at 50.5 points.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS VS TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Washington Commanders +3

This game will be played at Raymond James Stadium at 8:00 ET on Sunday, January 12th.

WHY BET THE WASHINGTON COMMANDERS:

• We have the Commanders winning this one by a score of 25 to 22
• Not only do we have the Commanders winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +3
• We see this game finishing below the line of 50.5 points

Will The Commanders Pick Up A Win On The Road?

Washington ended the regular season with a five-game winning streak, bringing their record to 12-5. This stretch included a 36-33 win over the Eagles in week 16 and a 30-24 victory over the Falcons in week 17. They were favored by 3.5 points against Atlanta and covered the spread, but they couldn’t cover as 7-point favorites against the Cowboys in week 18, winning 23-19. The O/U line for that game was 43 points, and the teams combined for 42.

Heading into the playoffs, Washington is 10-6-1 against the spread and has a +5.5 scoring margin. Their O/U record is 11-6, with their games averaging 51.5 points. The average line in their games has been 45.9 points. In our power rankings, the Commanders are 11th.

Jayden Daniels has been impressive under center for the Commanders, posting a passer rating of 141 in week 3, completing 21 of 23 passes for 254 yards and 2 touchdowns. He connected with Terry McLaurin 4 times for 100 yards, and avoided turnovers after throwing 0 interceptions in week 2 against the Giants. Daniels was sacked 5 times in that game, but only twice in week 3.

Washington ranks 5th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 28.5 points per game. They are 7th in the NFL in total yards per game with 369.6, and 17th in passing yards per game. The Commanders have been strong on the ground, ranking 5th in rushing attempts and 3rd in rushing yards per game.

In their most recent game, the Washington Commanders’ defense allowed 228 passing yards on 20 completions against the Cowboys. Despite giving up 150 rushing yards on 39 attempts, they managed to come out on top with a 23-19 win. The Commanders held Dallas to 41.2% on third down and kept them out of the end zone through the air, as they didn’t allow any passing touchdowns.

Washington’s defense recorded two sacks in the game, while the Commanders’ offense allowed six more quarterback hits than they produced. The Commanders’ defense also limited the Cowboys to 58.8% completions in the passing game.

Will The Buccaneers Win At Home Over The Commanders?

The Buccaneers ended the regular season with two straight wins, including a 27-19 victory over the Saints in week 18. Tampa Bay was favored by 15 points but couldn’t cover the spread, though the game’s 46 points hit the over (O/U line: 44.5). In week 17, the Bucs easily covered the 10-point spread by defeating the Panthers 48-14.

Tampa Bay finished the season 10-7, putting them 1st in the NFC South. They rank 3rd in the NFC and were 7th in our power rankings heading into week 1. The Bucs have an average scoring margin of +6.9 and are 10-7 against the spread. Their O/U record is 12-5, with the over hitting in four straight games.

After a stellar week 1 performance against the Commanders, Baker Mayfield’s numbers have declined in each of the last two games. In week 3, he threw for 163 yards (25/33), with one touchdown and one interception, while being sacked seven times. Chris Godwin led the team with 53 receiving yards on six catches, and Bucky Irving rushed for 70 yards on nine carries.

Heading into the Wild Card round, the Bucs rank 7th in our offensive power rankings. They are 4th in the NFL in points per game (29.5) and lead the league in 3rd-down conversion rate (50.9%). Tampa Bay also ranks 3rd in passing yards per game (250.4) and 4th in rushing (149.2 yards per game).

In their 27-19 win over the Saints, the Buccaneers’ defense allowed just 64 rushing yards on 19 attempts and held New Orleans to a 23.1% third-down conversion rate. The Bucs gave up 228 passing yards on 26 completions, with one passing touchdown allowed. They also recorded two sacks and limited the Saints to 292 total yards.

Tampa Bay’s defense was effective in generating pressure, as they won the quarterback hit differential and had more tackles for loss than their opponent. Additionally, the Buccaneers defended the pass well, allowing just 5.4 yards per attempt.