Vanderbilt Commodores vs Kentucky Wildcats Betting Pick & Prediction 10/12/24
SEC Network will be covering the Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Kentucky Wildcats matchup, set to kick off at 7:45 ET from Kroger Field in Lexington. Both teams are 3-2 so far this season, and the Wildcats are favored by -13.5 points. The over/under line is currently at 46.5 points as we head into week seven of the college football season.
VANDERBILT COMMODORES VS KENTUCKY WILDCATS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Kentucky Wildcats -13.5
This game will be played at Kroger Field at 7:45 ET on Saturday, October 12th.
WHY BET THE KENTUCKY WILDCATS:
- We have the Kentucky Wildcats winning this one by a score of 30 to 14
- Not only do we have the Kentucky Wildcats winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -13.5
- We see this game finishing below the line of 46.5 points
Will The Vanderbilt Commodores Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs
Vanderbilt enters Week 7 against Kentucky with a 3-2 record, holding the 41st spot in our power rankings. They have a 54.3% chance of becoming bowl-eligible, but only a 0.1% chance of winning the Southeastern this season.
The Commodores are 1-0 at home and 0-1 on the road. They’ve been favored in just one game this season, and their average scoring margin is +12 points. Against the spread, they are 1-1, going 0-1 as the favorite and 1-0 as the underdog.
Vanderbilt’s over/under record is 2-0, with their games averaging 63.2 points. This week’s line is set at 46.5 points, while their average over/under line has been 49.8 points.
Vanderbilt’s offense has been efficient, ranking 15th in our offensive power rankings and 20th in scoring, with 37.6 points per game. They have converted 49.3% of their third downs, 17th best in the nation, and are 9th in passer rating.
Diego Pavia has thrown for 973 yards and has a passer rating of 121. He has completed 66.7% of his passes with 8 touchdowns and no interceptions. Vanderbilt is 26th in rushing attempts, averaging 169.8 yards per game. Sedrick Alexander leads the team with 281 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns.
Vanderbilt’s defense enters this week ranked 48th nationally, allowing 25.6 points per game. In their recent game against Alabama, they gave up 35 points but limited the Crimson Tide to just 86 rushing yards on 20 attempts. Alabama did manage to throw for 310 yards, though Vanderbilt’s defense also recorded an interception.
On average, Vanderbilt has allowed 115.4 rushing yards per game, ranking 41st in the nation. Opponents have averaged 231.6 passing yards per game, completing 63.1% of their throws against the Commodores.
Are The Kentucky Wildcats Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?
Kentucky enters Week 7 with a 3-2 record, ranked 25th in our power rankings as they prepare to face Vanderbilt. They have a 79% chance of becoming bowl-eligible but no shot at winning the Southeastern, according to projections. At home, the Wildcats are 2-2, and they’ve been favored in three of their five games this season.
Against the spread, Kentucky is 4-1, with a +8.6 average scoring margin. They are 3-1 ATS at home and 1-0 on the road. As the favorite, they’ve gone 2-1 ATS, while they are 2-0 as the underdog.
Their over/under record is 1-4, with games averaging 35.4 points. This week’s line is set at 46.5 points, slightly above their average line of 46 points. On average, their games have fallen short of the over/under by 10.6 points.
Heading into week 7, Kentucky’s offense is averaging 22 points per game, placing them 77th in the nation. They are ranked 60th in our offensive power rankings. Their rushing game is the focal point, with 40 attempts per game, averaging 152.8 yards on the ground.
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye leads the rushing attack with 321 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 4 yards per carry. Quarterback Brock Vandagriff has thrown for 793 yards, with four touchdowns and two interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 87. Dane Key has 369 receiving yards on 23 catches.
Kentucky’s defense has been a strong point this season, ranking 9th in the nation by allowing just 13.4 points per game. They’ve given up only 79.2 rushing yards per game, the 6th fewest in the country. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged a 62.6% completion rate and a passer rating of 80.4 against Kentucky, throwing for 166 yards per game.
In their recent game against Ole Miss, Kentucky’s defense allowed 17 points but managed to keep Ole Miss out of the end zone through the air. They gave up 140 rushing yards on 41 attempts and 285 passing yards, while forcing 17 first downs.