Valparaiso Beacons vs Missouri State Bears NCAA Basketball Betting Pick & Prediction 1/1/25
Don’t miss out on the NCAA showdown between the Beacons and Bears. The game is starting at 8:00 ET on ESPN+, and it’s hosted by the Bears at Great Southern Bank Arena in Springfield, MO. Get ready to place your bets! The over/under for this Missouri Valley conference contest is set at 140.5 points, with Missouri State being favored by -4.5 at home against Valparaiso.
VALPARAISO BEACONS VS MISSOURI STATE BEARS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Missouri State Bears -4.5
This game will be played at Great Southern Bank Arena at 8:00 ET on Wednesday, January 1st.
WHY BET THE MISSOURI STATE BEARS:
- We have this one finishing with a projected score of 77-70 in favor of the Bears.
- Not only will Missouri State pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -4.5.
- The over/under is currently sitting at 140.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 147 points.
Will Valparaiso Win on the Road?
Valparaiso Beacons Recent Game/Games
Valparaiso fell to 5-6 on the season after a 81-75 road loss to Bradley on Sunday, December 29th. Despite being +13.5 point underdogs, the Beacons kept it closer than expected. The combined points of 156 went over the pre-game O/U line of 149.5.
Valparaiso trailed 36-30 at halftime but tightened up defensively in the 2nd half, allowing just 27 points while scoring 33 of their own. Although they covered the spread, the Beacons couldn’t complete the comeback.
Valparaiso’s offense struggled from the field in their last game, shooting just 34.4% overall and 29.2% from three-point range. Their effective field goal percentage was 40.6%, but they managed to score 75 points, thanks in part to hitting 24 of 33 free throws (72.7%) and grabbing 16 offensive rebounds.
Cooper Schwieger and Darius Hannah each scored 21 points, with Hannah shooting 61.5% from the field. Duke Deen added 20 points, while Zek Montgomery contributed 19, despite shooting 8 of 19. Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro struggled, hitting just 4 of 19 shots, including 1 of 8 from three-point range.
Valparaiso’s defense gave up 81 points in their last game, with the opposing team shooting 40% from the field on 28 of 70 attempts. Inside the arc, they allowed 21 of 45 shots to fall, a 46% conversion rate.
From three-point range, Valparaiso’s opponents hit 7 of 25 attempts, shooting 28%. They also sent them to the free-throw line 21 times, where they connected on 18 shots, an 85% success rate. Valparaiso allowed 12 offensive rebounds.
Do the Bears Have What it Takes to Win as Home Favorites?
Missouri State’s season record fell to 5-6 after a 57-40 road loss to Evansville on Sunday. The Bears, who were -4 favorites, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total points were 97, well under the O/U line of 133.
Missouri State trailed 23-20 at halftime but struggled in the 2nd half, scoring just 20 points while allowing 34.
Missouri State struggled offensively in their last game, scoring just 40 points with a field goal percentage of 25.9% (14/54). Their effective field goal percentage was 29.6%, and they hit only 20% of their three-point attempts (5/25).
At the free-throw line, the Bears shot 53.8% (7/13), and they grabbed 13 offensive rebounds. Cam Haffner led the team with 13 points, shooting 3/7 from beyond the arc, while Dez White added 12 points and 4 assists, despite shooting 3/13 overall.
Missouri State’s defense was solid, holding their opponent to just 57 points on 38% shooting from the field. They limited two-point opportunities, with the other team making only 10 of 25 shots for 40%.
From beyond the arc, their opponent shot 8/22, hitting 36% of their threes. Missouri State also sent them to the line 20 times, where they converted 13 free throws for 65%. The Bears allowed 6 offensive rebounds.