Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Betting Pick & Prediction 10/13/24
The Saints are the underdog at +111 on the money line as they host the Buccaneers at 1:00 ET on Sunday, October 13th at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. The Buccaneers are favored on the road with a -2 point spread. This week six NFC South matchup is being televised on FOX, and the over/under line is set at 42.5 points.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS BETTING PICK
The Pick: New Orleans Saints +2
This game will be played at Caesars Superdome at 1:00 ET on Sunday, October 13th.
WHY BET THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS:
- We have the Saints winning this one by a score of 20 to 19
- Not only do we have the Saints winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +2
- We see this game finishing below the line of 42.5 points
Will The Buccaneers Pick Up A Win On The Road?
Heading into week 6, the Buccaneers are 3-2, putting them 2nd in the NFC South. Our projections give them a 48.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 30.6% chance of winning the division. Tampa Bay currently ranks 15th in our NFL power rankings. So far, they have an average scoring margin of +2.6 points per game and are 3-2 against the spread. They are 2-1 ATS as underdogs and 1-1 as favorites. Their O/U record is 3-2, with the over hitting in two straight games.
After bouncing back from a week 3 loss to the Broncos with a 33-16 win over the Eagles in week 4, the Bucs couldn’t keep the momentum going, falling to the Falcons 36-30 in week 5. They were 2.5-point underdogs in that game but couldn’t cover the spread. The 66 combined points easily went over the 43.5-point line.
Heading into week 6, the Buccaneers are 6th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 8th in the NFL in points per game (25.4) and are averaging 321.8 passing yards per game, which ranks 17th. Tampa Bay is 15th in passing yards per game (213) and 17th in passing attempts per game (30.6). On the ground, they rank 20th in both rushing attempts and rushing yards per game, averaging 108.8 yards per contest. The Bucs are 7th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage and 24th in red zone conversion percentage, despite ranking 4th in red zone attempts.
Baker Mayfield is coming off a strong week 5 performance against the Falcons, where he threw for 180 yards and 3 touchdowns on 19/24 passing, earning a passer rating of 137. Chris Godwin led the team with 5 catches for 64 yards, while Rachaad White had 72 rushing yards on 10 carries. Tampa Bay scored 24 points in the first half against Atlanta but managed only 6 points after halftime.
In their most recent game, the Buccaneers lost to the Falcons 36-30 in overtime. Tampa Bay’s defense allowed 550 offensive yards, with 477 yards coming through the air on 42 completions. Despite giving up big yardage, they did come up with four sacks and one interception.
The Falcons were able to convert on 42.9% of their third down attempts and averaged 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Tampa Bay’s run defense held up better, allowing just 73 yards on 18 attempts.
Will The Saints Win At Home Over The Buccaneers?
After starting the season 2-0, the Saints have dropped three straight, including a 26-13 loss to the Chiefs in week 5. New Orleans couldn’t cover the 5-point spread, and the combined 39 points fell short of the 43-point O/U line. In week 4, they lost 26-24 to the Falcons but covered as 2.5-point underdogs. The O/U line was 42.5 points. In week 3, the Saints were 2.5-point favorites at home but lost 15-12 to the Eagles.
New Orleans is 10th in our power rankings and has a 40.4% chance of making the playoffs. Their O/U record is 3-2, with their games averaging 47.2 points. The average line has been 44.6 points. The Saints are 3-2 ATS, including 2-1 as underdogs and 1-1 as favorites.
Heading into week 6, the Saints are 7th in our offensive power rankings and 4th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 28. They rank 16th in yards per game, with 323.2, and are 20th in passing yards per game, with 196, on 27.2 attempts per game. On the ground, New Orleans is 10th in rushing yards per game, with 127.2, on 30.6 attempts per game. The Saints have been strong on 3rd down, converting 50.9% of their attempts, which ranks 2nd in the league.
In week 5, the Saints scored 13 points in their loss to the Chiefs, with 7 coming in the 2nd quarter. Derek Carr threw for 165 yards, completing 18 of 28 passes, with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Alvin Kamara was held to 26 yards on 11 carries, while Rashid Shaheed led the team in receiving with 4 catches for 86 yards and a touchdown.
In their 26-13 loss to the Chiefs, the Saints’ defense gave up 460 yards. They allowed 321 passing yards on 8.2 yards per attempt and 139 rushing yards on 3.6 yards per attempt. Despite this, they did not allow any passing touchdowns and came up with one interception.
New Orleans allowed the Chiefs to convert on 42.9% of their third down attempts and recorded two sacks. Offensively, the Saints ran the ball 39 times for 139 yards.