St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick & Prediction 7/4/24
Thursday’s matchup between the Cardinals and Pirates is set to get started at 12:35 PM ET from PNC Park in Pittsburgh. The money line odds have the Cardinals at -119 compared to the Pirates at +101, and the over/under line is currently at 9 runs.
St. Louis is currently 2nd in the NL Central with a record of 44-41, while the Pirates are 3rd in the division at 41-44. Andre Pallante is starting for the Cardinals, and he is facing off against Martín Pérez for the Pirates. The forecast for Thursday’s game in Pittsburgh calls for broken clouds and temperatures in the mid-70s.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES VS ST. LOUIS CARDINALS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline +101
This game will be played at PNC Park at 12:35 ET on Thursday, July 4th.
HOW TO BET THE CARDINALS VS PIRATES:
- We have the Pirates winning by a score of 6 to 5
- If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Pirates to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over
Pittsburgh picked up a 5-4 win over the Cardinals in the most recent game of this series. The Pirates had a two-run lead going into the 8th inning, and the Cardinals could only muster one run in the 9th. Heading into the game, the Pirates were favored at -126 on the money line.
Jared Jones got the start for the Pirates, going just five innings while giving up one run and striking out five. Aroldis Chapman got the win out of the bullpen. Miles Mikolas only went six innings for the Cardinals, giving up two earned runs on five hits.
Rowdy Tellez was the difference for the Pirates, as he homered, scored three times, and drove in two runs. Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds each had two hits and an RBI. For the Cardinals, Willson Contreras hit a home run and drove in two runs.
Cardinals Records & Stats
St. Louis is 44-41 overall and trails the Brewers by seven games in the NL Central. The Cardinals are 12-12 against other teams in the NL Central. The Cardinals are on the road today, facing the Pirates, and they are 20-23 on the road this season.
So far, the Cardinals have been good as the favorite, going 22-19, and they are an even 22-22 as the underdog. St. Louis’ overall series record is 14-11-2, and they are currently tied in their series vs. the Pirates.
When the Cardinals win, they win big, with an average run margin of +2.4 runs in those games. That’s a big reason why they are 44-41 on the run line this season. They have been a better bet on the run line as an underdog, going 28-16, compared to 16-25 as the favorite. Their run line record on the road is 20-23, but they have covered in two straight games.
St. Louis is on the road against Pittsburgh, with the over/under line set at 9 runs. The Cardinals have a combined run average of 8.4, and their over/under record is 38-44. When the line is set at 9 runs, their over/under record is 5-4-1. So far this season, only 8.2% of their games have had a line set at 9 runs or higher, with the majority of their games having lower lines.
Right-hander Andre Pallante gets the start for the Cardinals today as he faces the Pirates on the road. So far this season, he has made six starts and 15 appearances. Pallante’s record for the season is 4-3, and he has an ERA of 4.50. Looking at his numbers, Pallante has a WHIP of 1.58 and is coming off a start in which he didn’t allow a run. In that outing vs. the Reds, he went 5 1/3 innings, picking up the win. This year, he has one quality start and is averaging 7.34 strikeouts per nine innings. Pallante has been much better at home, with an ERA of 2.06 compared to 4.95 on the road.
For the season, the Cardinals are averaging just 4 runs per game, which is 26th in the MLB. Their home and road splits are very similar, as they are averaging 4.1 runs per game at home and 3.9 on the road. As a team, they are batting .240, which is 13th in the league, and their team on-base percentage of .307 is 17th in the MLB.
St. Louis will be looking for a better performance from Nolan Gorman, who leads the team with 17 homers but is batting just .189 this season. Gorman has also struggled of late, going 3/18 in his last five games. Brendan Donovan has been a bright spot for the Cardinals, as he is batting .267 for the season and has driven in a team-high 42 runs. He is also on a five-game hitting streak.
Pirates Records & Stats
Pittsburgh is 41-44 overall this season, and they are 10.0 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. Currently, they are 3rd in the NL Central, trailing the Cardinals by three games for the 2nd spot in the division. So far, they have gone 13-12 against other teams in the NL Central.
The Pirates have been just about even at home and on the road this year. They are 20-21 at home compared to 21-23 on the road. So far, they have been an even 10-8 when playing as the home underdog. Pittsburgh’s overall series record is 11-12-4, and they are 5-5 in their last 10 games overall.
When the Pirates win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.0 runs. But when they lose, they lose big, with an average run margin of -3.6 runs. Their run line record is 45-40, and they are 34-16 against the run line as the underdog. Their overall run differential is -0.4 runs per game.
When the Pirates play at home, the over/under line is typically set lower than 9 runs, as 83.5% of their games have had lower lines. However, in the five games with a line of 9 runs, the over has hit three times. The Pirates’ games have averaged 8.5 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 40-44.
Martín Pérez gets the start for the Pirates today and is looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Braves. In that June 28th start, he gave up six earned runs in four innings of work. Perez took the loss in that outing. Looking back further, he has made 12 starts and is 1-4 with a 5.28 ERA. Opponents are batting .305 off the left-hander this season. Perez has made three quality starts and is averaging 7.34 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has allowed 10 homers and is averaging 3.08 walks per nine innings.
Heading into today’s game, Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz are the Pirates’ top home run hitters, with Reynolds batting .273 and Cruz at .240. Reynolds’ 47 RBIs are the best mark on the team, and he has gone 11/38 in his last nine games, including two homers. Cruz and Andrew McCutchen are also tied for 2nd on the team with 12 homers apiece. McCutchen is batting just .232 for the season.
Overall, the Pirates are just 23rd in the league in scoring at 4 runs per game. They have been a bit better on the road, averaging 4.2 runs per contest. As a team, the Pirates are batting just .228 and are near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS.