San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Prediction 8/10/24

First pitch for Saturday’s Padres vs. Marlins matchup is set for 4:10 PM ET from loanDepot Park in Miami. The Padres are on a six-game winning streak and their record of 65-52 has them 2nd in the NL West. The Marlins are 5th in the NL East with an overall record of 43-74.

San Diego is currently favored on the money line, and the over/under line is at 8.5 runs. Matt Waldron is starting for the Padres, while Roddery Munoz is on the mound for the Marlins.

SAN DIEGO PADRES VS MIAMI MARLINS BETTING PICK

The Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline -175

This game will be played at loanDepot Park at 4:10 ET on Saturday, August 10th.

HOW TO BET THE PADRES VS MARLINS:

• We have the Padres winning by a score of 5 to 4
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Marlins to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over

San Diego rallied for four runs in the 10th inning in the most recent game of this series. The Padres scored one run in the 1st inning but didn’t score another run until putting up four in the top of the 10th, picking up a 6-2 win over the Marlins. Heading into the game, the Padres were favored at -136 on the money line.

Martin Perez only went four innings for the Padres but gave up just two hits and two earned runs. Jason Adam got the win out of the bullpen. Edward Cabrera had a good outing for the Marlins, going seven innings and striking out four.

Jackson Merrill was the difference for the Padres, as he went 3/4 with a home run and two RBIs. Manny Machado and Jurickson Profar each drove in two for San Diego’s offense.

Padres Records & Stats

San Diego is on a six-game winning streak, and they are 65-52 overall this season. The Padres are 2nd in the NL West, 2.5 games behind the Dodgers. So far, they have gone 19-18 in divisional games.

The Padres have been really good on the road this year, putting together a record of 35-23 compared to 30-29 at home. San Diego has won six straight games as the favorite and are 39-30 overall as the favorite. As for their record as the underdog, they are 26-22 this year.

The Padres are 40-18 against the run line on the road this season, covering at a 69% clip. They have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 33-15. Their average run margin on the road is +1.3 runs per game, compared to -0.2 runs per game at home. Their overall run line record is 62-55, with an average run margin of +0.5 runs per game.

San Diego has played to the over in 62 of their 116 games this season, which is a 53.4% over percentage. The Padres’ games have had an average of 9.0 runs scored per game, and their games have averaged an over/under line of 8.0 runs. When the O/U line has been set at 8.5 runs, the over has gone 15-13 in their games, and 17.9% of their games have had O/U lines set at 8.5 runs.

Matt Waldron gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Marlins on the road. He has made 23 starts this season and has a record of 7-9 with a 3.79 ERA. Waldron’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.15, and he has turned in 10 quality starts. In his last outing, Waldron picked up the win, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up just one earned run on two hits. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts. The right-hander has been much better on the road, coming in with a 4-4 record and 3.92 ERA compared to 3-5 with a 5.0 ERA at home.

San Diego comes into the game as the top hitting team in the league, with a team batting average of .265. They are also the top team in the league in terms of fewest strikeouts per game. The Padres are averaging 4.7 runs per game and have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are 11th in the league in home runs.

Jurickson Profar has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 19 home runs are the best mark on the team and 15th best in the MLB. He is also 14th in the league with 71 RBIs. Over his last nine games, Profar and Manny Machado have each hit four home runs, with Machado batting .368 in that stretch and Profar at .406. Machado is also on a three-game hitting streak.

Marlins Records & Stats

Miami is 43-74 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East, and they trail the Phillies by 26.5 games in the division. So far, they have gone just 11-23 against other NL East teams. The Marlins lost the first game of this series vs. the Padres and have an overall series record of 10-22-5 this year.

At home, the Marlins are 23-38 this year compared to a 20-36 mark on the road. Miami has dropped two straight games, and they are 4-6 over their last 10.

When betting the run line with the Marlins, it’s best to take them as the underdog. They are 52-48 vs. the run line as the dog, compared to a 2-15 mark as the favorite. Their average run differential in wins is +2.8, while it’s -3.8 in losses. The Marlins are 26-35 vs. the run line at home this season.

Today’s over/under line for the Miami Marlins game against the San Diego Padres is set at 8.5 runs. The Marlins have played 110 games this season, and their average combined run total is 8.6 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 64-50, and their average over/under line is set at 8 runs per game. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, their over/under record is 20-18. So far this season, 19 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, which accounts for 16.2% of their games. The majority of their games, 60 of them, have had lower over/under lines than 8.5 runs, which is 51.3% of their games.

Roddery Muñoz gets the start for the Marlins today and will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Reds. In that start, which came on August 5th, he took the loss and gave up four earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of work. Looking back further, Muñoz has given up at least two earned runs in each of his last three outings. Muñoz’s ERA for the season is 5.68, along with a record of 2-6. Opposing batters are hitting .237 off the right-hander this season. So far, he has made 13 starts, two of which were quality starts.

Over their last 10 games, Jake Burger has been on a tear for the Marlins, hitting six homers and going 12/40 (.300). This has helped him move into the team’s top spot in RBIs (50) and 2nd in home runs, with 20. Jesús Sánchez is also a power threat in the lineup, as he has 13 homers this season, which is 2nd on the team.

As a team, the Marlins are averaging just 3.6 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. Miami’s team batting average of .237 is 16th in the league.