Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Prediction 6/29/24

Max Fried and the Braves will host the Pirates on Saturday, with the game set to get started at 4:10 PM ET from Truist Park in Atlanta. The Braves are 45-35 this season and are 2nd in the NL East, while the Pirates are 39-42 and 3rd in the NL Central.

Atlanta comes into the game as the heavy favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -157 compared to the Pirates at +133. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs, and this game will be televised on BSSE.

ATLANTA BRAVES VS PITTSBURGH PIRATES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Atlanta Braves Moneyline -157

This game will be played at Truist Park at 4:10 ET on Saturday, June 29th.

HOW TO BET THE PIRATES VS BRAVES:

• We have the Braves winning by a score of 5 to 4
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Pirates to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over

The Pirates wasted an excellent outing from Martin Perez, as he went just four innings but gave up just one hit and no earned runs as the Pirates starter vs. the Braves. After scoring one run in the first inning, the Braves were held in check until they broke out for five run in the 3rd, picking up a 6-1 win.

Charlie Morton started for the Braves, picking up the win after going 6 1/3 innings and giving up three hits and no earned runs. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued five walks. Heading into the game, the Braves were favored at -213 on the money line.

At the plate, Austin Riley and Matt Olson each homered for the Braves, while Ozzie Albies scored twice and drove in a run while going 2/5. Marcell Ozuna also had a two-hit game and drove in three runs.

Pirates Records & Stats

Pittsburgh is 39-42 overall, putting them 3rd in the NL Central. Currently, they trail the Brewers by 9.5 games. The Pirates dropped the first game of this series vs. the Braves and are 11-11 in divisional games this year.

At home, the Pirates are 19-20 this year and 20-22 on the road. So far, they have really struggled as the favorite, going 15-18. As the underdog (overall), the Pirates are 24-24 this season. Pittsburgh has an overall series record of 11-11-4 and has won two straight series on the road.

When the Pirates are on the road, they have a run line record of 24-18, with an average run margin of -0.1. They have been a better bet as the underdog, with a run line record of 32-16. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.0, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.6.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are on the road today against the Atlanta Braves. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs, which is below their combined run average of 8.5 runs per game. The Pirates’ over/under record for the season is 38-42, and their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 5-10. Overall, 72.8% of their games this season have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, and their under streak is currently at 2 games.

Pittsburgh is sending right-hander Paul Skenes to the mound today vs. the Braves. He has made a total of eight starts this season and has a record of 4-0 with an ERA of 2.14. Skenes has made six quality starts this season and is coming off an outing in which he went seven innings, giving up one earned run, and finished with a no-decision. In that outing, he gave up one homer. Skenes has been solid at home, with an ERA of 3.29 compared to 1.0 on the road. He has a WHIP of .99 for the season.

So far this season, the Pirates have been one of the worst offensive teams in the league, as they are averaging just 4 runs per game, which is 22nd in the MLB. Their team batting average of .228 is 21st in the league, and they are also near the bottom of the league in terms of on-base percentage and slugging. However, they do have a few hitters who have been swinging the bat well of late, led by Bryan Reynolds, who has gone 13/34 in his last nine games, including four home runs.

Reynolds is also the Pirates’ top hitter for the season, with 46 RBIs and a team-high 13 homers. Oneil Cruz and Andrew McCutchen are also tied for 2nd on the team with 11 homers apiece. Cruz is batting just .236 this season, but McCutchen is even worse at .238.

Braves Records & Stats

With an overall record of 45-35, the Braves are eight games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. Atlanta is 12-11 against other teams in the NL East. The Braves took the first game of their series vs. the Pirates and have an overall series record of 15-10-2. Currently, they have lost two straight series.

At home, the Braves have gone 25-13 this season and have won four straight at home. On the road, the Braves are just above .500 at 20-22. As the favorite, Atlanta is 42-29 and 3-6 as the underdog. So far, they have been good in close games, going 15-8 in one-run games.

The Braves have been a solid run line team this season, going 39-41 overall and 18-20 at home. They have been a better run line bet on the road, going 21-21. Their average run differential is +0.7 runs per game, and they have a run line record of 34-37 as the favorite. They have gone 5-4 against the run line as the underdog.

Atlanta has seen the over hit in 29 of 48 games this season, and the average over/under line in their games is 9 runs. However, when the line is set at 7.5 runs, the over has gone just 4-7 in those contests. The Braves have seen the under hit in three straight games, and the combined run average in their games this season is 8.1 runs.

Left-hander Max Fried gets the start for the Braves today as he faces off against the Pirates at home. Fried has made 15 starts this year and has a record of 7-3 with a 3.00 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Fried has a WHIP of 1.07 and opponents are batting .207 this season. Fried has turned in eight quality starts, along with two complete games and one shutout. In his most recent outing, Fried went six innings, giving up one earned run and picking up the win. He has only allowed six homers this season.

Marcell Ozuna has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 21 homers are 5th best in the MLB. He also comes into the game with the 3rd most RBIs in the league, with 67. Ozuna is also leading the Braves in batting average at .304. Matt Olson is 2nd on the team in RBIs (41) and has 12 homers but is batting just .244 for the season.

Over his last seven games, Austin Riley has gone 7/27 with two homers, while Jarred Kelenic has also gone deep twice in this stretch, while going 9/26 with six RBIs. As a team, the Braves are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are 13th in the league in home runs.