Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick & Prediction 9/18/24
At 7:40 PM ET, the Phillies and Brewers square off in an NL matchup. This one is taking place at American Family Field in Milwaukee, and the Phillies are the slight money line favorites (+101). The Brewers are 87-64 overall, while the Phillies lead the NL East with a record of 91-60.
Wednesday’s forecast in Milwaukee calls for temperatures in the mid-60s and cloudy skies. MLBN is carrying this game on TV, and Aaron Nola will start for the Phillies, while the Brewers are sending Freddy Peralta to the mound.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS VS PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING PICK
The Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline -119
This game will be played at American Family Field at 7:40 ET on Wednesday, September 18th.
HOW TO BET THE PHILLIES VS BREWERS:
- We have the Brewers winning by a score of 5 to 4
- If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Brewers to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over
Philadelphia cruised to a 5-1 win over the Brewers in the most recent game of this series. The Phillies had a huge 2nd inning, scoring four of their five runs. As for the Brewers, they scored their only run in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Phillies were favored at -141 on the money line.
Zack Wheeler pitched well for the Phillies in this one, going seven innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with six strikeouts but didn’t issue a single walk. On the other side, Frankie Montas got the start for the Brewers, going just 5 2/3 innings and giving up three runs.
At the plate, Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos each homered for the Phillies. Harper, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber each had two RBIs. Turner went 3/5 with a stolen base.
Phillies Records & Stats
With an overall record of 91-60, the Phillies lead the Mets by eight games for the NL East lead. The Phillies are 27-18 against other teams in the NL East. So far, they have been good at home, going 52-26, and they are above .500 on the road, with a record of 39-34.
Philadelphia has been good as the favorite this year, going 78-45, and they are 27-22 as the favorite on the road. The Phillies’ overall series record is 27-16-7, and they have won two straight series.
When the Phillies win, they win by an average of 3.9 runs per game. When they lose, they lose by an average of 3.9 runs per game. Their run line record is 73-78, and they are 38-35 against the run line on the road. Overall, they have a run differential of +0.8 runs per game, but that number jumps to +1.1 runs per game at home. As the favorite, they are 58-65 against the run line, while they are 15-13 as the underdog.
When the Phillies are on the road, the over/under line for their games is set at 8 runs. Their games have averaged 8.9 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 70-73. When the line is set at 8 runs, their over/under record is 17-18-2. So far this season, 48.3% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs, while 27.2% have had lines set below 8 runs.
Right-hander Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Brewers on the road. This year, he has made 30 starts and has a record of 12-8 to go along with a 3.62 ERA. Nola’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.20. In his last outing, he took the loss, giving up six earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Looking back over his last three starts, Nola has given up at least two homers in each outing. Before this rough stretch, he had a shutout and a complete game among his 18 quality starts.
Philadelphia’s offense has been one of the league’s best this season, averaging 4.8 runs per game (5th) and batting .258 as a team (4th). They are also near the top of the league in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. The Phillies have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest, which is the 2nd best mark in the MLB.
Bryce Harper has been swinging the bat well of late, going 10/28 in his last seven games with three homers. For the season, he is batting .289 with 29 homers and 84 RBIs. Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 35 homers and is 10th in the league with 97 RBIs.
Brewers Records & Stats
Milwaukee is 87-64 overall this season, putting them 1st in the NL Central. They hold a 10-game lead over the Cubs for the division lead. The Brewers are 30-19 against other teams in the NL Central. The Brewers are coming off a loss in their most recent game and are 43-30 at home this season.
The Brewers have been good on the road, going 44-34 this season. As the favorite, Milwaukee is 50-36, and they are 37-28 as the underdog. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 27-17-4, and they have won two straight series. Their two most recent series wins have come on the road. In their series vs. the Phillies, the Brewers are 1-1 so far.
When the Brewers win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.6 runs per game. That’s helped them to a 78-73 run line record this season. They’ve been a better bet on the road, where they’re 43-35 against the run line, compared to 35-38 at home. They’ve been a better bet as the underdog, going 44-21 against the run line, compared to 34-52 as the favorite.
The Milwaukee Brewers are at home today against the Philadelphia Phillies with the Over/Under line set at 8 runs. The combined run average in Brewers games this season is 8.8 runs, and their Over/Under record is 77-64. The average O/U line in their games is 8 runs, and when the line is set at 8 runs, their record is 11-11-5. Overall, 54.3% of their games have had O/U lines set higher than 8 runs.
Freddy Peralta will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in five innings of work. In that outing vs. the Diamondbacks, he only gave up four hits and issued four walks. Looking back further, he has turned in a quality start in three of his last four outings. Peralta’s ERA for the season is 3.75, along with a record of 11-8. For the year, he has allowed 25 home runs and is averaging 10.14 strikeouts per nine innings. Peralta’s walk per nine innings figure is 3.53.
William Contreras comes into the game batting .281 for the Brewers this season and has 22 homers, which is 3rd on the team. He also comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak. Willy Adames has been the Brewers’ top power threat this season, as his 32 homers are 10th in the league, and his 109 RBIs are the 3rd most in the majors. However, he is hitting just .249 for the season and has gone 6/29 in his last eight games.
As a team, the Brewers are 4th in the league in runs scored, averaging 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are 7th in batting average and have the 4th on-base percentage in the league. Milwaukee’s offense has been good at avoiding strikeouts this season, but they are just 20th in the league in slugging.