Oklahoma City Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans Betting Pick & Prediction 4/29/24

Monday night at 8:30 PM ET, the Pelicans will look to avoid being swept by the Thunder in this first-round Western Conference series. Oklahoma City is up 3-0 and is favored by 4.5 points. The over/under line is at 204.5 points, and the money line odds are -193 for the Thunder and +158 for the Pelicans. NBA Network is carrying this game on TV.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS NEW ORLEANS PELICANS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5

This game will be played at Smoothie King Center at 8:30 ET on Monday, April 29th.

WHY BET THE OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER:

• We have this one finishing with a projected score of 117-111 in favor of the Thunder.
• Our projections have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finishing with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists.
• From the field, we have the Thunder finishing with a field goal percentage of 49.5% and knocking down 14 threes.

Despite being 1.5-point underdogs heading into the game, the Thunder easily covered the spread and won by 21 points. The Thunder’s defense was excellent, as they held the Pelicans to just 85 points, well below their season average. The Thunder also held the Pelicans to just 28.1% shooting from three and nine made threes.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led all scorers with 24 points and also added eight assists. Brandon Ingram had 19 for the Pelicans. The Thunder also got a big game from Josh Giddey, who had 21 points and eight rebounds while shooting 61.5% from three.

Is a Road Win Possible for Oklahoma City?

As the Thunder look to extend their winning streak to nine games, they are favored by 4.5 points over the Pelicans. This season, OKC has been favored in 78 of their 82 games and has a record of 50-14 in those games.

Oklahoma City’s ATS record for the season is 49-36, and they have covered the spread in their last two games. On the road, they are 21-21 ATS compared to 28-15 at home.

This season, the Thunder have an O/U record of 45-39-1, and their games have averaged 231.5 points per game. Today’s line of 204.5 is the lowest of the season for them.

In their most recent game against the Pelicans, the Thunder won 106-85. They were also favored by 1.5 points in that game. The combined scoring in that game was well below the O/U line of 211.

Oklahoma City is currently in 1st place in the Western Conference with a record of 57-25. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 36-16 and 21-9 in non-conference games. On the road, they are 25-17.

Offensively, the Thunder are averaging 120.1 points per game this season, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. At home, they are averaging 122.5 points per game, which is the 2nd best mark in the NBA. Looking at their three-point shooting, the Thunder are the league leaders in three-point shooting percentage, at 38%.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 24.6 points per game over his last five games on a shooting percentage of 46.3%. In these games, he also averaged 5.2 assists and 4.4 rebounds. For the season, he is averaging 30.1 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.5 rebounds. Chet Holmgren is averaging 16.5 points and 7.9 rebounds for the season.

On the season, the Thunder are 11th in points allowed per game at 111.9. They are 3rd in field goal percentage allowed at 45.4% and 2nd in blocked shots per game at 6.6. Over their last five games, they are the top-ranked defense in the league, giving up just 92.4 points per game.

So far this season, opponents have scored less than their season average in 61.0% of their games vs. OKC. In terms of three-point shooting, opponents have made more than their season average in 57.3% of their games vs. the Thunder.

On the glass, they are 27th in rebounds per game, but 12th in defensive rebounds per game. In terms of steals, they are 1st in the league at 8.5 per game. In terms of personal fouls, they are 15th.

Will the Pelicans Defense Show Up at Home?

This season, the Pelicans have gone 38-49 on the over/under, and their games have averaged 224.4 points per game compared to today’s line of 204.5. In their last game, they combined for just 191 points, which was well below the O/U line of 211.

New Orleans is currently on a three-game losing streak and is 49-33 overall, which puts them in 8th place in the Western Conference. In the Southwest Division, they are in 2nd place.

As the underdog, the Pelicans have a record of 18-17 this season, and they are 21-14 ATS as the underdog. Today, they are getting 4.5 points against the Thunder.

In their most recent game, the Pelicans lost to the Thunder by a score of 106-85. They were 1.5-point underdogs going into the game, and this loss dropped their ATS record to 45-41 for the season.

In the Western Conference, the Pelicans are 30-22 against other teams in the West and 19-11 in non-conference games. Today’s game is their 82nd of the season, and they are 22-21 at home.

New Orleans comes into the game as the NBA’s 16th-ranked scoring offense, at 115.1 points per game. Their scoring average at home is 113.7 points per contest. In terms of pace, the Pelicans are 18th in the league, averaging 97.3 possessions per game. One area where the Pelicans have been strong is three-point shooting, as they are 7th in the league with a team three-point shooting percentage of 38%.

Brandon Ingram has averaged 16.8 points per game over his last five games. This has come while hitting 42.5% of his shots from the field. Across his last five games, CJ McCollum has averaged 13.4 points per game, but he has hit just 35.8% of his shots in that stretch. Trey Murphy III is also averaging 13.4 points per game in his last five games, while hitting 43.3% of his shots.

So far this season, the New Orleans Pelicans have been one of the better defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 8th in points allowed per game at 110.4. At home, they have been even better, giving up just 111.0 points per contest, which is 11th in the league.

One of the reasons for their success on the defensive end has been their ability to force turnovers, as they are 2nd in the NBA in steals per game at 8.3. However, they have struggled to block shots, ranking just 23rd in that category.

One area where opponents have had success against the Pelicans is from three-point range, as they are 24th in made threes allowed per game at 13.5. In terms of three-point percentage allowed, they are 24th in the league at 35.2%.