New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Pick & Prediction 1/5/25
The Saints are +608 on the money line as they take on the Buccaneers at 1:00 ET on Sunday, January 5th. The Buccaneers are the heavy favorite in this one, with their odds at -931. The Saints and Buccaneers are facing off in week 18 of the regular season, and this NFC South matchup is being televised on FOX. The over/under line is set at 43.5 points, and the Buccaneers are -13.5 point favorites.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -13.5
This game will be played at Raymond James Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, January 5th.
WHY BET THE TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS:
- We have the Buccaneers winning this one by a score of 31 to 13
- Not only do we have the Buccaneers winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -13.5
- Look for this game to go over the line of 43.5 points
Will The Saints Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs
With a 5-11 record, the Saints are on a three-game losing streak, including a 25-10 loss to the Raiders in week 17. Before that, they were shut out by the Packers in week 16 and narrowly lost to the Commanders in week 15. New Orleans ranks 29th in our power rankings and has been eliminated from playoff contention.
Against the spread, the Saints are 6-10, with two straight ATS losses. They were 1.5-point underdogs vs. the Raiders in week 17 but couldn’t cover. Their O/U record is 7-9, with the under hitting in five consecutive games.
Heading into week 18, the Saints rank 20th in our offensive power rankings. They are 22nd in the NFL in points per game, averaging 19.9, and 20th in yards per game with 321.9. New Orleans is 24th in passing yards per game (203.8) and 18th in passing attempts. On the ground, they rank 14th in rushing yards per game, with 118.1, on 26.6 attempts per game.
In week 17, the Saints scored 10 points, all in the second quarter, in their loss to the Raiders. Spencer Rattler threw for 218 yards, completing 20 of 36 passes, with one touchdown and two interceptions. Juwan Johnson led the team with 66 receiving yards on 6 catches, while Rattler also led the team in rushing with 46 yards on 3 carries. New Orleans struggled on third down, converting just 1 of 10 attempts.
In their 25-10 loss to the Raiders, the Saints’ defense allowed 388 total yards and struggled to stop the run, giving up 156 rushing yards on 38 attempts. They allowed two passing touchdowns and only managed one sack in the game. The Saints also struggled on third downs, allowing the Raiders to convert 55.6% of their third down attempts.
New Orleans did limit the Raiders to 6.6 yards per pass attempt, but Las Vegas was able to move the ball effectively, finishing with 232 passing yards. Additionally, the Saints’ offense allowed five more quarterback hits than they generated.
Are The Buccaneers Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?
Heading into week 18, the Buccaneers sit atop the NFC South with a 9-7 record, giving them an 86.2% chance of making the playoffs and winning the division. Tampa Bay ranks 7th in our NFL power rankings and 4th in the NFC standings. After losing to the Cowboys in week 16, the Bucs bounced back with a 34-point win over the Panthers in week 17, covering the 10-point spread.
So far, the Buccaneers are 10-6 against the spread, with a +6.8 scoring margin. Their O/U record is 11-5, with the over hitting in three straight games. Tampa Bay’s games have averaged 52.6 points, while the O/U line has been 45.7.
Heading into week 18, the Buccaneers are 7th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 3rd in the NFL in passing yards per game (252.6) and 4th in rushing (147.3 yards per game). Tampa Bay leads the league in 3rd-down conversions and is 3rd in red zone attempts, though they rank 29th in red zone conversion percentage. The Bucs also lead the NFL in 1st-quarter scoring, averaging 7.2 points.
Baker Mayfield has been on fire, throwing for 359 yards and 5 touchdowns in week 17 against the Panthers, with a passer rating of 152. Mike Evans had 8 catches for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Bucky Irving rushed for 113 yards on 20 carries. Tampa Bay scored 10 points in the 1st quarter and converted 10 of 14 3rd-down attempts.
In their most recent game, the Buccaneers’ defense gave up just 39 rushing yards on 13 attempts to the Panthers. Despite allowing two passing touchdowns, the defense held Carolina to 165 yards passing and just 14 points. They also forced the Panthers to a 22.2% third-down conversion rate and recorded five sacks.
The Buccaneers’ defense was tough against the pass, allowing just 15 completions on 35 attempts (42.9%). Even though they gave up two passing touchdowns, their strong performance against the run and their ability to pressure the quarterback were key factors in their 48-14 win over the Panthers.