New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Pick & Prediction 10/20/24
At 9:30 ET on Sunday, October 20th, the Patriots and Jaguars will face off at Wembley Stadium in London. This week seven matchup is technically a home game for the Jaguars, although it is being played at a neutral site. The Jaguars are the heavy favorite with a money line of -239, while the Patriots’ money line odds are +195. The Jaguars are favored by -5.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 42.5 points. The game will be televised on NFLN.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS BETTING PICK
The Pick: New England Patriots +5.5
This game will be played at Wembley Stadium at 9:30 ET on Sunday, October 20th.
WHY BET THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS:
- We have the Patriots winning this one by a score of 29 to 18
- Not only do we have the Patriots winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +5.5
- Look for this game to go over the line of 42.5 points
Are The Patriots A Candidate To Pull Off An Upset?
Heading into week 7, the Patriots are looking to snap a five-game losing streak, which includes a 41-21 home loss to the Texans in week 6. New England was a 6.5-point underdog in that game but failed to cover the spread, dropping their ATS record to 1-4-1 this season. They’ve been the underdog in all of their games so far and currently rank 32nd in our NFL power rankings.
With a 1-5 record, the Patriots have just a 0.3% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.1% chance of winning the AFC East. They are 0-3 at home and 1-2 on the road, with their only win coming against the Bengals in week 1. In division games, New England is 0-2, and they are 1-3 in conference play.
Heading into week 7, the Patriots rank 29th in our offensive power rankings and are 28th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 13.8 points per game. They rank 30th in total yards per game (257.5), and their passing game has struggled, with 134.3 yards per game, which ranks last in the NFL. On the ground, they average 123.2 rushing yards per game, ranking 12th, on 26.5 attempts per game. New England ranks 24th in 3rd-down conversions but has been efficient in the red zone, ranking 4th in the NFL with a 78.6% conversion rate.
In week 6, rookie QB Drake Maye threw for 243 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 2 interceptions, in the Patriots’ loss to the Texans. Demario Douglas led the team with 6 catches for 92 yards, and Maye also led the team in rushing with 38 yards on 5 carries. New England converted just 3 of 13 3rd-down attempts but scored on their only trip to the red zone.
Despite giving up 192 rushing yards on just 28 attempts, the Patriots’ defense held the Texans to 176 passing yards in their most recent game, which ended in a 41-21 loss. New England’s defense struggled against the run, allowing 6.9 yards per attempt, but they did force one interception. The Patriots’ offense had 368 yards in the game.
New England allowed three passing touchdowns and managed only two sacks in the game. The Patriots also struggled to defend the run on third downs, allowing the Texans to convert 54.5% of their third down attempts.
Can The Jaguars Win As The Favorite On A Neutral Field?
Heading into week 7, the Jaguars sit 24th in our NFL power rankings and have a 4.8% chance of making the playoffs. Jacksonville is 1-5 on the season, with their lone win coming in week 5 against the Colts. However, they couldn’t build on that victory, falling to the Bears 35-16 in week 6. The Jaguars were 1.5-point favorites in that game, but the loss dropped them to 1-5 and 4th in the AFC South.
Jacksonville is 2-4 against the spread this season, with both of their ATS wins coming as underdogs. They are 0-3 when favored, including the loss to the Bears. Their O/U record stands at 3-3, with the over hitting in two straight games.
Heading into week 7, the Jaguars rank 22nd in our offensive power rankings. They are 20th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 18.8, and 19th in yards per game with 319.5. Jacksonville ranks 10th in passing attempts but is 20th in passing yards per game, averaging 203. On the ground, they rank 28th in rushing attempts and 19th in rushing yards per game (116.5). The Jaguars are 25th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage but rank 6th in red zone attempts, converting 28.6% of those opportunities.
Trevor Lawrence threw for 234 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 6, completing 23 of 35 passes. Evan Engram led the team with 10 receptions for 102 yards, while D’Ernest Johnson rushed for 28 yards on 6 carries. Jacksonville scored 3 points in the 1st quarter, 0 in the 2nd, 7 in the 3rd, and 6 in the 4th.
In their 35-16 loss to the Bears, the Jaguars’ defense struggled to defend the pass, giving up four passing touchdowns. Chicago’s passing game found success, completing 79.3% of their passes for 221 yards. The Jaguars’ defense also struggled to get off the field, allowing the Bears to convert on 45.5% of their third down attempts.
On the ground, the Jaguars allowed 152 rushing yards on just 29 attempts, with Chicago finishing with 373 total yards. Despite these struggles, Jacksonville did manage to record three sacks and one interception in the game.