Missouri Tigers vs UMass Minutemen Betting Pick & Prediction 10/12/24
ESPN2 is covering this week seven non-conference matchup between the Missouri Tigers and the UMass Minutemen, set for 12:00 ET on Saturday, October 12th, at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Amherst. Missouri comes in with a 4-1 record, while UMass has struggled to a 1-5 start. The Tigers are heavy -27.5-point favorites, and the over/under line is at 53.5 points.
MISSOURI TIGERS VS UMASS MINUTEMEN BETTING PICK
The Pick: UMass Minutemen +27.5
This game will be played at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium at 12:00 ET on Saturday, October 12th.
WHY BET THE UMASS MINUTEMEN:
- We have the Missouri Tigers winning this one by a score of 32 to 27
- Even though we like the Missouri Tigers to win, our ATS pick is to take the UMass Minutemen at +27.5
- Look for this game to go over the line of 53.5 points
Will The Missouri Tigers Win As Road Favorites?
Missouri heads into Week 7 with a 4-1 record, ranked 22nd in our power rankings. They have a 97.5% chance of becoming bowl-eligible but only a 0.3% shot at winning the Southeastern. The Tigers are 2-0 at home but 0-1 on the road this season.
Missouri’s average scoring margin is +13.4, and their ATS record is 1-2. They are 1-1 against the spread at home and 0-1 on the road. The Tigers have been favored in two of their five games, going 1-1 ATS as the favorite.
This week’s over/under line is 53.5 points, higher than their average line of 50.8. Missouri’s over/under record is 1-2, with their games averaging 49 points per contest.
Missouri’s offense is averaging 31.2 points per game, placing them 40th in the nation, and they are ranked 59th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 7. Their passing game is a focal point, as they rank 27th in passing attempts and 20th in completions, averaging 249.8 yards per game. They have converted 50.6% of their third downs, which ranks 15th nationally, and their completion percentage is 66.5%, ranking 25th.
Quarterback Brady Cook has thrown for 1,132 yards with a 63.6% completion rate, five touchdowns, and one interception, giving him a passer rating of 91. On the ground, Missouri is averaging 182.4 rushing yards per game. Nate Noel leads the rushing attack with 471 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry, and has scored two touchdowns. Theo Wease Jr. is the top receiver with 359 yards on 28 catches and one touchdown.
Missouri’s defense will look to bounce back after a rough game against Texas A&M, where they allowed 41 points in a 41-10 loss. The Tigers gave up 512 total yards, including 236 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns, though they did hold Texas A&M without a passing touchdown.
Despite the tough outing, Missouri’s defense still ranks 19th nationally, allowing just 17.8 points per game. They are giving up 121 rushing yards per game and 157 passing yards, which ranks 16th in the country. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 55.3% of their passes and have a passer rating of 74 against Missouri’s defense.
Are The UMass Minutemen Going Win In At Upset At Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
UMass enters Week 7 with a 1-5 record, facing Missouri at home. They rank 128th in our power rankings, and their chance of becoming bowl-eligible is just 0.1%.
They’ve been favored in only one game this season, with an average scoring margin of -12.2 points per game. Against the spread, UMass is 1-2-1.
This week’s over/under line is 53.5 points. UMass games have averaged 50.5 points, and their average over/under line is 46.8 points, with a +0.6 margin.
Heading into week 7, UMass ranks 94th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 19.2 points per game. They are 28th in passing attempts, with 30.2 per game, and 34th in completions. Their passing game produces 213.3 yards per game, placing them 54th nationally. On third downs, they convert 38.5% of their attempts, and their completion rate is 57.5%. Their passer rating is 85, ranking 89th.
Quarterback Taisun Phommachanh has thrown for 1,280 yards, with a passer rating of 85. He has seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Jalen John leads the rushing attack with 210 yards, averaging 3 yards per carry and scoring one touchdown. Jakobie Keeney-James has 493 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 24 catches.
UMass’s defense has allowed an average of 31.3 points per game this season, including 34 points in their recent loss to Northern Illinois. They struggled against the run, giving up 368 rushing yards and four touchdowns, while allowing just 35 passing yards on six completions.
Opponents have averaged 165.2 rushing yards per game against UMass, while the secondary has allowed just 162.3 passing yards per game, ranking 24th nationally. Quarterbacks have completed 54.5% of their passes against UMass, the 21st-lowest rate in the country.