Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick & Prediction 9/18/24

The Guardians are hosting the Twins today at Progressive Field in Cleveland, and they are looking to extend their lead in the AL Central, as they are 87-65. However, the Twins are the slight money line favorite today, with their odds sitting at -101 compared to the Guardians at -117. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs.

First pitch for this one is set for 6:40 PM ET, and the forecast calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 70s. BSGL will be televising this AL matchup. Minnesota is 3rd in the AL Central, with a record of 80-71, while the Guardians are 1st.

MINNESOTA TWINS VS CLEVELAND GUARDIANS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Minnesota Twins Moneyline -101

This game will be played at Progressive Field at 6:40 ET on Wednesday, September 18th.

HOW TO BET THE TWINS VS GUARDIANS:

• We have the Twins winning by a score of 5 to 4
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Guardians to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over

It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Twins vs. Guardians series. Minnesota went into the matchup as +118 underdogs and squeaked out a 4-1 win. Both teams scored one run in the first inning, and the Guardians could only muster one more run in the 4th inning. As for the Twins, they scored the game’s go-ahead run in the 5th, and added two insurance runs in the 8th.

Gavin Williams got the start for the Guardians, going five innings and giving up two earned runs on five hits. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued two walks. As for the Twins, Zebby Matthews only went 4 2/3 innings but gave up just one earned run on five hits.

Minnesota’s offense was led by Willi Castro and Matt Wallner, as they were the only two Twins hitters to have more than one hit. Castro, Lane Thomas, and Angel Martinez each had one home run for their respective teams.

Twins Records & Stats

Minnesota is 80-71 overall and 6.5 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. So far, they have gone 29-21 in divisional games. The Twins are on the road today, and they are 38-38 on the road compared to 42-33 at home.

The Twins have been good as the favorite this year, going 63-42, but they are just 17-29 as the underdog. Minnesota has been really good as the road favorite, putting up a record of 28-16 this year. They are also 26-17-4 in series this year.

Minnesota has a run line record of 70-81 this season, including a 38-38 mark on the road. The Twins have an average run margin of 0.2 runs per game this season, and their average run margin in winning games is 3.7 runs per game. They have been favored in 105 games this season and have a run line record of 46-59 in those games.

Minnesota’s over/under record is 76-69 this season, and the over/under line for today’s game against the Cleveland Guardians is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Twins games this season is 9.1, and their average over/under line for the season is 8 runs per game. Minnesota has played 97 games with over/under lines set above 7.5 runs, which accounts for 64.2% of their games this season.

Twins starter Bailey Ober will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Reds, as he gave up five earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. In that outing, he gave up two homers. Before that, he had turned in a quality start in three straight outings. Ober’s ERA for the season is 3.90, along with a record of 12-7. Opponents are batting .202 vs. the right-hander this season. For the year, he has one complete game and 17 quality starts. Per nine innings, Ober is averaging 9.35 strikeouts and just 2.28 walks.

Carlos Santana comes into the game as the Twins’ leader in home runs this season, and he is also on a seven-game hitting streak. Over his last four games, he has gone 6/17 with a home run and two RBIs. Willi Castro has also been swinging the bat well of late, going 6/16 in his last five games. This includes one home run and four RBIs.

For the season, the Twins are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. They are also one of the top home run hitting teams in the league and have a team batting average of .249. As a team, they are 8th in on-base percentage and have the 6th best slugging percentage in the league.

Guardians Records & Stats

Cleveland is 87-65 overall this season and leads the AL Central by five games over the Royals. The Guardians are 28-22 against other teams in the AL Central. At home, the Guardians are 46-28 this season and 41-37 on the road. So far, they have been excellent as the favorite, going 61-33.

The Guardians have an overall series record of 26-15-6 this year, and they are 6-7 as the home underdog. Cleveland has gone 6-4 across their last ten games and are currently tied with the Twins in their series.

The Guardians have been a solid run line bet this season, going 77-75 overall. They have been slightly better on the road, going 41-37, compared to 36-38 at home. They have a positive run differential both at home and on the road, with an average run margin of 0.5 runs per game overall. They have been a better bet as an underdog, going 33-25 against the run line, compared to 44-50 as the favorite.

The Cleveland Guardians have been involved in high-scoring games this season, with a combined run average of 8.3 runs per game. Their over/under record is 66-75, and the average over/under line for their games is set at 8 runs. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 17-21. The over has hit in six straight games for the Guardians, and 69.7% of their games this season have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs.

Cleveland is sending Tanner Bibee to the mound today vs. the Twins, and he comes into the game with a record of 11-8 and an ERA of 3.60. Looking back at his last outing, Bibee took the loss vs. the Rays, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One of those wins came vs. the Royals, where he gave up just one earned run in six innings of work. Bibee has a total of 10 quality starts this year and is averaging 9.84 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has given up 22 homers.

Jose Ramirez comes into the game on a 10-game hitting streak and has been hot at the plate of late, going 8/23 in his last six games. During this stretch, he has one home run and three runs batted in. For the season, Ramirez’s 35 home runs are 7th best in the league and leads the Guardians, while his 107 RBIs are 5th best in the MLB.

As a team, the Guardians are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are 11th in the league in home runs. They have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 4.7 runs per game. Overall, they are batting just .238, which is 15th in the league, and have the league’s worst BABIP at .27.