Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick & Prediction 6/21/24
San Diego is the betting favorite heading into Friday’s matchup vs. the Brewers, with the money line odds sitting at -154 compared to the Brewers at +129. This NL matchup is set for 9:40 PM ET from PETCO Park in San Diego, and the Padres are looking to extend their two-game win streak. Milwaukee is starting Colin Rea, and they are 44-31 this season, putting them first in the NL Central.
The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs, and BSWI will be televising this game. Dylan Cease is starting for the Padres, and he will be facing a Brewers team that is 5-5 in their last 10 games.
SAN DIEGO PADRES VS MILWAUKEE BREWERS BETTING PICK
The Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline -154
This game will be played at PETCO Park at 9:40 ET on Friday, June 21st.
HOW TO BET THE BREWERS VS PADRES:
- We have the Padres winning by a score of 6 to 5
- However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Brewers to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over
San Diego picked up a 7-6 win over the Brewers in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 1st inning, scoring four of their seven runs. As for the Brewers, they scored two of their six runs in the 5th and added three more in the 9th.
Adam Mazur got the start for the Padres, going just 4 2/3 innings while giving up three runs and striking out three. Jeremiah Estrada got the win out of the bullpen, and Mark Melancon got the save. Bryse Wilson only went 4 2/3 innings for the Brewers, giving up five runs on seven hits.
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado each homered for the Padres, while Jake Cronenworth scored twice and drove in a run while going 2/5. Jackson Merrill also had a two-hit game at the plate.
Brewers Records & Stats
Milwaukee is 44-31 overall and leads the NL Central by 6.5 games over the Cardinals. So far, they have gone 18-9 against other teams in their division. The Brewers have been good at home this year, going 22-12, and they have the same number of wins on the road.
As the underdog, the Brewers have dropped three straight, and they are 19-17 as the underdog this year. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 15-7-2, and they have won four straight series overall and two straight on the road. Their most recent series win came against the Rockies.
When the Brewers are on the road, they are a good bet to cover the run line. They are 24-17 this season and have covered the run line in three straight games. Their average run margin on the road is +0.8 runs per game. They have been a better bet to cover the run line as the underdog, going 24-12 compared to 15-24 as the favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.5 runs per game, while it drops to -2.8 runs per game in losses.
The Milwaukee Brewers are on the road today against the San Diego Padres, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The Brewers have played in 56 games this season with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, and in those games, the over has hit 39 times. Overall, Milwaukee’s games have averaged 8.8 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 39-33.
Right-hander Colin Rea gets the start for the Brewers today as he faces his former team, the Padres. Rea has made 12 starts this season and has a record of 6-2 with a 3.29 ERA. So far, he has turned in five quality starts and is averaging 6.34 strikeouts per nine innings. Rea’s WHIP for the season is 1.23. In his last outing, he picked up the win, going six innings and giving up two earned runs on four hits. Before that, he had gone three straight starts without giving up a homer, but he has allowed 10 homers this year.
As a team, the Brewers are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 6th in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s best hitting teams, with a team batting average of .252 and the 6th best on-base percentage in the league.
Willy Adames and William Contreras have been the Brewers’ top power threats this season, with Adames leading the team with 13 homers and Contreras right behind him with nine. Contreras is also 2nd on the team with a batting average of .300 and has 48 RBIs, which is 10th in the league. Adames has driven in 54 runs this season, which is the 7th best mark in the MLB.
Padres Records & Stats
San Diego is hosting the Brewers today with an overall record of 39-40, which has them nine games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. The Padres are also 3rd in the NL West, and they have gone 14-15 in divisional games this year. The team has won two straight games, and they are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
At home, the Padres are 19-21 this year, and they are just over .500 at 20-19 on the road. San Diego has won four straight games at home, and they are 17-15 as the home favorite this year. As the underdog, the Padres have gone 14-17 this season.
San Diego has a run line record of 40-39 this season, but they have been much better on the road, going 27-12. They have a run line record of 13-27 at home. On average, the Padres have outscored their opponents by 0.2 runs per game this season. They have a run line record of 21-10 as the underdog and 19-29 as the favorite. Their average run margin in wins is 3.7 runs per game, while their average run margin in losses is -3.3 runs per game.
San Diego’s games have averaged 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 39-39. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, they are 10-13. Overall, 62% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs.
Right-hander Dylan Cease gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Brewers at home. Cease has made 15 starts this season and has a record of 6-6 with a 3.95 ERA. In his 15 appearances, Cease has turned in eight quality starts and is averaging 11.01 strikeouts per nine innings. Cease’s last outing came on June 16th vs. the Mets, where he took the loss, giving up seven earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Cease’s ERA at home is 3.84 compared to 5.01 on the road.
Jurickson Profar has been on a tear for the Padres, as he comes into the game with a five-game hitting streak and is batting .321 for the season with 10 homers, which is 3rd on the team. Profar’s 48 RBIs are 10th in the league and lead the Padres. Fernando Tatis Jr. also has been a big run producer for the Padres, as his 36 RBIs are 3rd on the team, and he has gone deep 14 times, which is 10th in the league.
San Diego’s offense has been one of the league’s best this season, as they are 2nd in batting average and have the 10th best slugging percentage in the league. Overall, they are averaging 4.4 runs per game and have been even better on the road, averaging 4.7 runs per contest. As a team, the Padres are also one of the league’s best at avoiding strikeouts.