Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Betting Pick & Prediction 8/18/24

From Citi Field in New York, we have the Marlins and Mets facing off in an NL East matchup. First pitch is set for 12:05 PM ET, and the Mets are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -197. The money line odds for a Marlins win are currently at +165.

Paul Blackburn is starting for the Mets, and he is facing off against Valente Bellozo and the Marlins. Miami comes in with a record of 45-78, while the Mets are 64-59. The Marlins have lost three straight, and they are 5th in the NL East, while the Mets are 3rd in the division.

MIAMI MARLINS VS NEW YORK METS BETTING PICK

The Pick: OVER 8.5 Runs

This game will be played at Citi Field at 12:05 ET on Sunday, August 18th.

HOW TO BET THE MARLINS VS METS:

• We have the Mets winning by a score of 5 to 4
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Marlins to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over

New York cruised to a 4-0 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a huge 1st inning, scoring three of their four runs. As for the Marlins, they had their best chance to score in the 4th, but could only muster one run. Heading into the game, the Mets were favored at -195 on the money line.

Luis Severino started for the Mets and picked up the win, going nine innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with eight strikeouts but issued one walk. Max Meyer got the start for the Marlins, going just four innings and giving up four runs on six hits.

At the plate, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso each homered for the Mets. Lindor, Alonso, and Mark Vientos each had two hits and an RBI. Vientos doubled twice and scored a run.

Marlins Records & Stats

Miami is 45-78 overall and trail the Phillies by 28 games in the NL East. Currently, they are in 5th place in the division, 10 games behind the Nationals for 4th place in the division. The Marlins have really struggled against other NL East teams, going 12-26 this year.

At home, the Marlins are 24-39 and just 21-39 on the road. Miami has dropped three straight games, and this has come as the underdog. As the underdog overall, the Marlins are 41-65 this year and 4-13 as the favorite.

When the Marlins are favored, they are a bad bet on the run line, as they are just 2-15. However, when they are the underdog, they are a good bet, as they are 55-51. Their overall run line record is 57-66, and their average run differential is -1.4 runs per game. They have a losing streak against the run line on the road, as they have failed to cover in their last three games.

When the Miami Marlins play on the road, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, which is lower than their season average of 8.7 runs per game. The Marlins have played 20 games with an over/under line set at 8.5 runs this season, and their record in those games is 23-19. Overall, their over/under record for the season is 68-52.

Valente Bellozo will be making his 4th start of the season on the road against the Mets. He’s coming off a win against the Phillies, where he went 7 innings and struck out 4. Bellozo has not allowed an earned run yet this season, and he has given up just 2 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings of work.

Currently, the Marlins are the worst scoring team in the league, averaging just 3.7 runs per game. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3.2 runs per contest. Miami’s offense is also near the bottom of the league in home runs, and they have the worst team walk rate in the league. As a team, the Marlins are batting .237, which is 15th in the league.

Over his last five games, Jake Burger has been on fire, going 8/19 with three homers and eight runs scored. For the season, Burger is batting .254 and leads the team with 55 RBIs. His 24 homers are 12th in the league. Burger is also on a nine-game hitting streak. Jesus Sanchez is also near the top of the Marlins home run leaderboard, with 15 homers this season.

Mets Records & Stats

The Mets have won two straight games, and they are 64-59 overall this season. New York will be hosting the Marlins today, and the Mets lead the Marlins by 9.0 games in the NL East. Currently, they trail the Phillies by one game for the NL East lead.

At home, the Mets are 33-31 this year, and they are 31-28 on the road. As the favorite, the Mets are 41-33 this year and 23-26 as the underdog. New York’s overall series record is 18-16-7, and they have won two straight games as the favorite.

Despite their overall run line record being below .500, the Mets have been a profitable run line bet at home, going 28-36. They have a run differential of +0.2 runs per game overall and at home, and their average run differential in wins is +3.7.

The Mets are at home today against the Marlins, with the over/under line set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average in Mets games this season is 9.4 runs per game, and their over/under record is 63-56. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, the over has hit in 23 of their 37 games (62.2%). Overall, 25.2% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher.

New York is sending right-hander Paul Blackburn to the mound today vs. the Marlins. He has made 12 starts this season and has a record of 5-3 with a 4.43 ERA. Blackburn’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.22, and he has turned in six quality starts. In his last outing, Blackburn took the loss, giving up six earned runs in four innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. So far, he has been much better on the road, with an ERA of 6.49 compared to 3.91 at home.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ top power threats this season, as Alonso’s 27 homers are 1st on the team and 3rd in the league, while Lindor has 24 homers, which is 2nd on the team and 12th in the MLB. Lindor has also been swinging a hot bat of late, hitting .395 over his last 10 games, with two homers and seven RBIs. Alonso has four homers in this stretch but is batting just .250.

Overall, the Mets are 5th in home runs this season and are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. As a team, the Mets are batting .250, which is 8th in the league, and have the 8th best on-base percentage and slugging percentage in the MLB.